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Everything posted by Skullzrulerz
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, that's going to put anything "noteworthy" cold or snow to bed. It will get colder and perhaps some snow in favourable areas, but that's all she wrote. The ECM has picked up a trend and I would probably expert the others to follow. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As a cold fan who wants to see snowfall and the such, this is going to be the case if the current trends continue. What's hasn't helped is the comparisons to 2010 for example, I'm sorry to say this but as things stand it's looking unlikely that we will see something of the sort. By all means it will get colder and some places may experience snowfall but it isn't going to be anything special as things stands now. Of course the models can chop and change so we may still have time yet -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM tonight will be important, if it does continue to trend that way it's going to to be inevitable that the other models will as well. Be a shame if that happened... -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Me too, it's a bit of shame to be honest, well let's hope ECM is a bit better but that was trending west too -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Disappointing truth be told, hopefully ECM may backtrack to a more favourable position this evening. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It should be the GFS who should be taking notes, it's been poor over the last few days. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good runs from GFS and ECM (bar that low at the end) this morning, the latter high risk but high reward. Shame to be living the far south west as we are bound to miss out on the fun. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are you referring to a West Based NAO? -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A lot of drinks at the pub Still, happy so far with the results let's see what the longer term is. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Please don't jinx it! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Around average to sightly below? Chilly, yes we have. But if we are looking for widespread cold/brutal or what ever you want to say. The can is for kicking. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Back to Day 10 + kicking the can down the road. Don't get me wrong, it looks awesome but with the GFS recent performance, I would take the chance of winning the lottery. Personally we need to get the cold in quickly then the rewards will hopefully follow. A very important Ecm coming up... -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still a bit of a long way to go, would like to see these charts getting to just a few days away, not around Day 10. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We really need that Greenland High to stay as strong as possible. GFS is good but the high not being as strong is a bit worrying. Another thing is the PX around Hudson Bay. Cold coming in from the North East, I would prefer coming from the east. Would be more suitable for the South west. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it is a "upgrade" for "uppers" but unless you live on a hill. That's exactly what you're going to get. Still ICON is better then to this morning's. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ah, I thought it meant a snow event because of the low. That's my mistake. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Disappointing, ECM will be worth watching tonight. We may very have have a trend on our hands. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Double Turn indeed -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just look back the last few pages, the GFS has been all over the place! It's like it's been out for too many drinks, while ECM has been mostly stable it's in output. Only till this morning apparently it's not good enough because its showing the wrong output. Yes, this afternoon will be very important but we shouldn't disregard models because of their output. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like the GFS is now the hero, because of one poorer run from the ECM. Keep in mind that the ECM is a slightly more reliable then the GFS, I don't think I need to explain about the GFS recently too... -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the ECM is staying to go down this part then the chances of major cold is reduced, it's not game over by any means but we be stuck in a rock and a hard place. The ECM has been top dog throughout this chase but the chase may take a detour. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Be careful with using these snow depths charts, it's goes under the impression that all precipitation will be snow. Sadly with those uppers it won't be cold enough. Not sure where the disappointment is coming from, but it wasn't expected that we would see anything beyond chilly, at least still mid December. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Okay fine, you have a deal -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite a decent run so far, would like the high pressure a bit further east. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Skullzrulerz replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And the story this evening is that the ECM will get out of bed and have a few drinks. (Meaning that the ECM could very be showing us charts like the GFS has done recently) ?