Skullzrulerz

Would you think a middle ground is the most likely outcome then?

Could it be "THAT ECM" run? At least GFS is slowly going towards the ECM. Still quite cautious, we have been down this road many times before...

I can understand people's disappointment this evening, ECM was a great run and somewhat supported by UKMO. Sadly the GFS hasn't exactly done that.. at least not yet. However the main issue is the lack of deep cold, yes it will get a tad more chilly getting temperatures to around average to sightly below. You won't however find widespread snowfall, let alone snow showers on low ground. Understandably people wanted to see something of the likes of 2010 along other events, but as fate seems to be at current it's looking unlikely at this stage. How ironic considering all of this blocking (which is quite impressive compared to recent years) which is supposed to send very cold/cold air and yet there's simply none nearby. By no means that somehow models can change considering the uncertainty with the blocking and other drivers.

You got to love how Cornwall/Far South west just about avoids it!

It's something to look at out, you never know GFS could be onto something.

Although The ECM is excellent, it's on its own sadly. I would strongly suggest to keep in mind unless GFS,UKMO start to go in that direction I would take it with a pinch of salt

What does this mean?

What was this like on this morning and yesterdays run?

He didn't necessarily say those three words? Most likely referring to the GFS run which this time isn't exactly a great run.

It's a disappointing run, leaning towards the ICON with lesser heights around Greenland.

I really hope this isn't the start of a unravelling...

If I recall I did post this somewhere on this forum, with the climate changing it would be better in terms of cold chances to get it from the east. Not too sure what to think of the models this morning after a quick look, at least the jet stream is on holiday in the Canary Islands!

Just to add my thoughts. I think that there's a lot of hype around this cold spell or spells depending on how things develop. I have to say again, 2010 was a very rare event in it's own right. We may very well get a cold spell but it's unlikely that it match the sheer scale of what 2010 cold event. This morning there's been a "upgrade" on the cold uppers, however the Greenland high or high pressure around it isn't as robust. So it's looking like a mixed bag this morning in general.

Very sorry to hear that , hope she will be okay

Don't get me wrong, that looks quite impressive and could very well bring a sharp cold spell. Alas, it's in fantasyland territory. These cold/very cold conditions get pushed back and back sadly which isn't helping. It's not helped as well by that very annoying low around Portugal/Spain that can really put a dent in the way of things. We need to get these charts a lot closer then they are now, then we can get excited about it!

The weather will do what it wants to do, honestly as long as it's dry that's what I care about. A pleasant winters day is the best thing

Hopefully it be dry at the very least.

Yeah, I have noticed that. I wonder why that is

It's like everyone supports a different football club because they win the most goals. You have to feel sorry for those that are new here being confused as of late. Looking at the general theme this morning while there's still a great amount of blocking around, the lack of cold is very disappointing. Cracks are appearing too in the medium term, if it keeps up expect a unravelling.

We must be the unluckiest country in Europe for getting any cold air here. It's been a issue for the past few days that to simply put, anything noteworthy for cold... Isn't there in the short time or is beyond day 10/pushed back. It's going to have to be a second yellow card for this "cold" spell.

What are we looking at exactly?

Any updates on ICON?

It's such a shame considering the Synoptics. We can all look at Day 10 charts all we want, we need these charts to get into the reliable time frame for a chance for it to happen. Betting that in a week's time we still be looking at Day 10 charts