derrylynne
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Posts posted by derrylynne
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interesting times. The wind is gusting from the East and the dew point is dropping...Snow looks about certain for us here in the Rhondda. Maybe time to get the shovels ready. lol...The drifting will be quite severe if this wind keeps up too....
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gusting 50-60mph here 1.8C. Windchill must be -10C
Windchill here -4.8C Temperature 0.3C Dewpoint -1.9C. wind gusting to 16mph. On course for snow up here in the Rhondda unless dew points and temperature rise as the system gets nearer...
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When a model 'sees' a cold-spell in FI, it's being a trendsetter; but, when the very same models 'sees' anything milder coming, it's being over progressive...Still, with the Metman on Five Live talking of a possible return to cold next week, nothing's cut-and-dried, IMO?? :unsure:
Plenty of interest over the next few days...
Could not agree more re your comments as regards model output as regards trends. I am sure many that visit this thread only want to see cold and then if it does not show start throwing the toys out the pram. lol
However, to my untrained eye looking at the models it is clear the jet will remain far to our south, leaving us on the cold side the jet, so temperature are not likely to be that mild, giving a chance for much more snow than we have become used to - even if it is snow then a thaw rota. However, with the AO looking to stay on the negative side, and the solar conditons I would give a high chance that February will be very cold. Don't forget that synoptics can change at very short notice, almost out the blue, and so a reload could be possible at short notice. Personally though I will be glad of a thaw, even if temporary to clear the roads and to see a bit of green for a change; many folk have on the high ground been trapped in their homes for more than a week. And peeps like me that suffer from chest problems are forced to in the main stay indoors. In the short term it does look at though the far SW may reach double digits by the weekend, hopefully us here on the high ground will at least reach high single figures....I expect the cold will return next week though.
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she goaded me to go down the country lane saying she thought we'd make it and it'd be "FUN" - and me, I thought my volvo was invincible as it had coped with loads up until then - but when I slipped down into the "bowl" with no way forward or back we knew we were stuck - the "bowl" actually became a sort of a car park because at one point there were about 5 or six cars stuck there and when I went to get my car out today a satellite fitter van was a new victim of the black rd bowl - beware the black rd bowl - it's a bit like the bermuda triangle - it swallows up vehicles!!!!!!!
pmsl. I will remember that next time I drive down there - when the snow has gone:-)
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I must admit to some surprise that the MetO are progging heavy snow off the advancing front, rather than sleety-rain, but they may be absolutely right.
This is marginal indeed. Who'd be a professional forecaster when the slightest change brings the national scrum down on top of you?
So am I West. In fact I will be more than surprised if tomorrows offering comes in as snow for all but the high ground given the marginal warmer conditions at the moment. My feeling is they are covering themselves, better to play safe than not say anything and get caught out with uproar from the public that they were not warned.
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Morning! WEll the gfs wants to bring milder air for a time during this coming weekend but thats all in FI! Philip Eden thoughts may be somewhat correct but it would be good to hear what he says in a couple of days time,perhaps he will be saying something different! but judging by the ecm its not going to warm up at all if anything a reload of Artic air and even the gfs keeps that cold block flirting with the uk. So this coming week will bring more Wintry weather and we all have to remember that any milder weather is all FANTASY ISLAND :blink:
Where in Fantasy land is the milder air. I think it is plain to see on most the charts - it is going to turn warmer with rain rather than sleet after a couple of days. I am sure many people will be happy with that one too..It is no good wishing for snow - look at the charts and read what is there not what you wish...
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No thaw here with the temperature hovering around freezing and a minus dew point. I see the meto have issued an alert for Cardiff and parts of South Wales. I am sure they don't quite know what is going to happen, and in this situation it could be anything. Quite a miserable day out really with bits of snow and feeling very cold because the air is more humid...
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My take looking at the latest models is that although it has turned milder - it is in no way going to be warm. There is also the prospect of more snow on occasions. These themselves maybe broken by slightly warmer interludes where the snow turns back to rain in places - only to turn back to snow the next day. In no way do I see these models as warm. I have also noticed that fridgid air is never ever too far away from us over Europe, and it will not take too much of a push to shove it back over the UK. The jet is also forecast to stay on it's holidays to the south of us - so the prospect of full atlantic mild westerlies just does not look an option to me. Now I am not an expert and there are folks on here much more experienced. So some of your guys comments on mine will be welcome....
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its +1 here too I'm really not liking that, although the snow is settling.
Still snowing and settling here although the breakdown looks like it will be complete come Wednesday. No doubt many people will be glad for a thaw and for life to get back to normal. However, for so early in the winter this has been a memoriable cold spell - and I have no doubt there will be other periods of snow during the rest of the winter..I must admit myself it will be nice to see a bit of green rather than all white and to travel without ice and snow all over the roads. Bet the councils will be heaving a sigh of relief..
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Snow here and been snowing for some time. Only light but a slight covering. I imagine many in South East England are pleased it has turned to sleet or rain, bless them, laughs. This is warmer air moving in from the East, and the north sea is warm enough to modify the air as it moves turning the snow to sleet or rain near the coast. Most the east coast is having a slight thaw - this does not translate to raging warm temperature. Having said that if any of you guys want wall to wall snow for the whole of the winter you are living in the wrong place. Better to move to Canada or Russia. It is normal in what is a temperate climate for it to blow warm and cold. So we can expect it to turn warmer. At least for a while - and then for the cold to reload at some further time. Don't forget we are only in the early part the winter. Having said that quite a lot of Wales will get a lot of snow in the next few days, even if it turns to rain in places like Cardiff and Swansea or lower ground. The valleys and Brecons, all high ground in fact is likely to retain precipitation snow.
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tonights and tomorrows snow is not coming in as a front. It is basically moist air that will form showers of snow -particularly over the high ground. Evidence of that happening is already occuring on rain today. Have patience all you snowbies. Keep the lampost watching and you will see. laughs...True. But for me I am off to bed and will peep out the window if I get up in the night:-)
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Think you've got it spot on. Thankfully someone can see the wood for the trees can call it like it is.
Could be a lot of egg on faces come next week.lol
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Oh here goes the whinging again, Its snowing here and its not even on the radar, I think the radar is playing up because it has been for the last hour and its not just a flurry its quite steady but nothing on the radar.
There could well be something with the radar. It is showing the south east as losing its precipitation and most the Uk - of course I do not know if this is the case without being there. Reports like yours help give a true picture....
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Cold spell is OVER!!!
snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week
By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!
GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now
The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!
bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper
Explain why you think what you do? You have never lived through these kind of winters and looked at the archives or you may have another opinion. The cold will not shift that easily. Don't forget either that the GFS is programmed for 'modern winters' and is always too keen to bring back a mild Atlantic. Have you looked at the Ecm and other charts?
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Hi Guys,
Well - from the latest models, looks as though the PPN is decaying? A few posts on the general discussions are saying we are in for a slow thaw with a dry 10 days and going out with a whimper. I thought this was going to be a classic - all I can see is rapid downgrades tomorrow - am I missing something here?
JK
I very much doubt this cold spell is going out with a whimper. The ecm is very strong on continuing the cold spell. I could be wrong of course and I do know many peeps , including me would like a bit of mild, very mild will do, laughs, but in my opinion having seen these kind of charts before, and winters, although there will be atlantic attempts to break the cold, the cold will stay. Expect it to stay cold in the long term with maybe a slightly warmer interlude - that is normal in all severe winters.....
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This event seems delayed to me. Still nothing much PPN in the east
It is interesting that the precipitation in South East England has been squeezed out. So there is very light snow or flurries there now...Looking at the radar all snow over the Uk is getting squeezed out. Although I can see there are flurries moving into Mid Wales...Not really what was expected so we wait to see (1) if the radar is correct. (2) if it is why is it getting squeezed out.........
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Agh jeez.. just relised I have my AS ICT Exam Monday afternoon....
Please tell me it will not be snowing Monday afternoon? I really need to get to this and I hope the roads will be okay (usually are here but the further inland where campus is it gets worse)
My take on this system coming across although it is sub zero air it is moist. This will bring in what I call in 'normal; weather when we get rain ' the mountain effect'. This will be the case still with this air coming across. As this moist air rises it will condense further and create heavier snow over high ground and of course the valleys. I could be wrong but I think the worse snow will be in the valleys and high ground, lower down such as Cardiff and Swansea will see much lighter snow and flurries. All will be revealed by morning...
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My feeling is the pub run is over done as usual with the warm air getting in. I doubt if it will - apart from far southern areas, and the coasts. This could be a classic snowfall of old - and the cold air will keep in place. I would go by the ecm rather than the gfs as that has been more reliable. That is of course if the system is as far into the UK as forecast on the charts. It maybe further south. At the least it will be a glancing blow before going along the channel to France is my feelings on what is shown..
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It has been snowing lightly here for about half an hour. Not enough to come to anything though...
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BBC News 24 weather not making much of Sunday away from SE England, still should get some light snow though.
Meto have an advisory for heavy snow for our area, Rhondda Cynon Taff for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. They must know something we don't. lol.. But then again they went for a mild winter and a BBQ summer. laughs...
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Well guys take note, js is about to be snowed in
For all those who thought Ireland did badly in an Easterly, think again
By the way serious question, does anyone know how our sea temps are reacting to the cold spell????
This will be very important next week when onshore winds become strong
Sea temperatures have cooled a lot in this last week or so, now in single digits all around the coast. Generally 8C north sea to the north of the UK 6 to 7C southern half. Irish sea around 9C but cooler near coasts.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out. As the breakdown is forecast to be a way off yet on the charts it could be more of a trend that has been picked up and may not bring the warmer air in. As has been mentioned there were times in 1963 when warmer air tried to get in, hence the blizzards in the SW, but each time it was repelled and became colder again, often with days of sun and bitter temperatures. My hunch is that this cold spell may not be over. At the least it will probably bring a big snow event with it as there is such a lot of cold air over the Uk and being drawn off Europe...
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I must admit, what I do see less and less of every day is any sort of reload situation. I think the end is near, let's just hope it goes out with a fight and not a whimper!
I agree with BFTP comments about February, it is showing all the signs of being a bit of a horror show (unless you are Mushymanrob of course :lol: ). Whether or not some sort of MMW can hurry up and get going to help avert it remains to be seen.
But.. whatever happens from now on in, this will go down as a classic and memorable winter for all the right reasons for sure!
EDIT: I'm talking IMBY for 'the end', those in the North will be able to cling on for a fair bit longer IMO
Given the solar conditions I would be very surprised to see February turn out to be anything like mild. There are bound to be milder interludes as shown on the charts, although these in my mind are very likely to be temporary. There were many instances in the winter of 1963 when milder air tried to get in, but simply did not make it. The GFS of course is programmed for 'modern winters' - and finds it hard to handle these kind of synoptics. The fact though the other models are going for some kind of breakdown indicates that something is going on though, and that some milder, not maybe the steaming Atlantic, may make it in - albeit for a short time. With the AO staying in our favour, and the jet stream seemingly staying further South, conditions will always be right for a reload. Be interesting what the next 24 hours bring in the charts. Ok I am not as expert as many others on here chart wise - but just putting in my ten pennyworth as to my thoughts......
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Not true Derry
What the Fax charts show is the upper air starting to warm out, hence the 'upper' warm font shown on 1 or 2 of them, then the main frontal zone is show on the T+120 as pretty well along the south coast.Nick F makes similar comment in his blog and is correct.
This has been, already, the longest and coldest spell over much of the country for perhaps 20+ years.
Once really cold air gets settled, believe me, its unlikely that the first Atlantic push will bring milder, let alone, 'blow torch' air rushing over the UK.
It may well make it into some SW'ern coastal areas, might, but as to the end of the cold spell by Wednesday-no chance.
What happens beyond it is very much up in the air in my view.
The forecast for the start into the middle of next week is a forecasters, just about, worst nightmare.
Very cold surface air, only slowly being modified with moist warm air over the top. How far, will any genuinely mild air get at the surface, will it snow, will it be freezing rain, how much, for how long, and will the cold push the mild back again.
Like I say a forecasters nightmare after the relatively easy bit of the past 4-5 days!
Many thanks for that John....
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Just looked at the fax charts and ukmet and it seems they agree with the gfs. I would put my money on the breakdown next week. Personally be nice to get some warmer weather back and save on the heating bills....
Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by derrylynne
The lead edge is heading into Swansea now and Porthcawl. Pembroke too. Anyone got any reports from there?