derrylynne
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Posts posted by derrylynne
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.... hello guys
now that the horrid cold appears to be going, ill wake up!
im liking the current model outputs, especially the gfs which suggests milder or much milder conditons into fi.. pretty dry too.
Agree with you there Rob. Like you I am fed up with this cold and just want something milder now. The coldies have had a good winter - now us mild lovers want a good spring and summer:-) The charts are certainly promising something much milder with temperatures at last in double figures...
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I cannnot be the only one that would like to see some dry and warmth coming into the outlook as per the charts now. Alas although it looks like turning very warm over Africa the jet still remains 'on holiday' over the Med or Africa and it is looking as though the cold will continue. Looking to me as though it has the opportunity to turn very cold towards the end of the first week of March. I imagine there is a good possibility of more very voilent storms brewing up and coming into Portugal, Spain and France and touching our shores as the current one over the South East is doing - owing to the increasing warmth well to our south, the position of the Jet stream, and the cold still hanging in there. I would not be surprised to see snow almost anywhere during the first half of March, although of course just where the high is will of course hold the key at the end of the day...
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If this is not a place to learn then I will leave. My request simply reflects my frustration at posts (not just Mr Browns) that state the obvious (i.e. it could do something) without showing people who have been here a month (an awful lot longer before posting, but I forgive you for your incorrect assumption) without providing evidence to back it up. Science has never meant 'knowing' as you put it. Science has always been about testing theory with practical backup. If all scientists just went off on theory without the requirement to back it up with evidence then we'd still be drilling holes in peoples heads to cure headaches. Ian does generally back his theories up, but tonight he hasn't. Could remains 'could' until someone turns in into 'should' and backs that up. Apologies for being arrogant and rude in your opinion. But hey - as you point out I only have 21 posts so I clearly don't count. (edit - 22 now!)
Mr Brown is right though. 'It could'. That sums up every synoptic chart that appears. Nothing is ever set in stone as far as weather is concerned. Trends are easier to spot but even then their are times when the trend is wrong - as in the charts up to recently when they were insisting the Atlantic would once again become dominant...The cold spell that is coming is progged to last ten to 14 days at present - but that is only a 'could'. The charts are showing it 'could' snow in the middle of next week - and that the south east 'could' take the brunt'. But a slight shift in wind direction and anything could happen. nuff said....From my slant the week looks to be cold but dry for the west with high pressure - frosty but a lot of sunshine. Although this could change....
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There is no doubt to me the cold is going to return - and it will be quite prolonged. Although the question has to be how cold it is going to be. The intense cold we had over Europe has largely gone and Russia is a lot milder than of late. So in my opinion this spell will be warmer - than the last one. However, the north sea is now very cold. Only 5C in the southern part - so there will be little warming. The models agree and solar conditions have been warning of a cold February for some time. As has been said don't worry about snow - you have to get the cold first. When that is in place snow will happen but details can wait until the cold is in place. Lot's of negatives in here tonight. More mood swings than most woman. lol....The weather is the weather guys. But this time around the cold will win...
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Yes this summed up our thoughts regarding the block, theres no halfway house in this set up, mild sw'erlies or cold easterlies! The only straw we can clutch is that its not a return to zonal with positive NAO and AO, whilst the background teleconnections remain favourable at least there might be some route back to cold but don't ask me when!
It were only a few days ago that a classic 1947 synoptic were being shown. My feeling is this could swing back just as quick. The way the charts have been acting of late just about anything is possible. I would not be surprised to see an about turn within the next two days...
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Those LP's seem to be way too low pressure wise for the Atlantic for February. A time when the Atlantic is usually quiet. Surly they are overcooked to say the least. Maybe one of the more experienced members can comment on that one?
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I would not be at all surprised to see the models (UKMO and ECM) slowly start to back away from
their Atlantic driven outlooks over the next two or three days.
I just don't buy what they are showing and a half way house maybe reached with it getting
progressively colder thereafter.
Nothing to do with the models I know but I tend to agree with you. I have a gut instinct that these models are soon going to do a big about turn. I prefer mild so will not be in my favour but am sure cold and snow is going to be the theme.
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Even if it did "flip" in 8 -10 days time, there is no cold pools left anywhere the continent will have warmed up as the
SW'lys are not limited to UK but most of NW Europe and Scandi will see a massive increase in temps in the coming week. Its -15 to -20 in some parts currently, with temps expected to rocket to -3 to 0oC by this time next week. So an easterly if it did occur would probably bring overcast leaden skies, damp 3oC and light very cold drizzle, which to my mind is even worse than rain and milder SW's.
I think the models are being far too progressive with the warmth getting into Scandi and a lot of Europe. Yes it has to happen sometime but this cold pool is dense and heavy and will take a bit of shifting. More likely to happen towards the end of February when the sun is higher and stronger but will be very surprised if that cold pool is gone by this time next week...
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Seems the charts have gone from the best charts ever for cold weather fans - to a general agreement more or less binning the easterly - unless you look way into fantasy land. It certainly looks at least from next week for a short time it is going to be milder. Not warm of course by any standards - but nothing in the way of snow. I do though appreciate the models have struggled with the current synoptics and the cold air over europe - but am sure that the easterly were a dream. Let's be honest though - how often has the promise of an easterly come off? Time for change - but I doubt it will happen....
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Deep FI loosing it's marbles. If it comes off we're going to be looking at one of the coldest winters for a very long time. The only oil in the ointment is that secondary feature bringing in a warmer sector this week.
Looking at this morning charts I am surprised there is not much excitement in F1 with a raging beast from the East. The GFS could be picking up on something. Particular as solar events are pointing to a very cold February. Will be interesting to see what the next set of charts bring and if they all fall in line....
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Looking at their comments they suggest the eastern USA trough to breakdown and weaken, we basically want that trough to hold as long as possible as that keeps the block further north, once the trough weakens we're likely to see a ridge of high pressure coming out of that region which then helps our high to topple.
I always find it amazing to read often statements such as ' we basically want'. Nothing to do with the charts as are. Basically want depends on which side the fence you are - mild or cold - so does not apply to we want. I would basically want a Bartlett high as that would bring mild into the 50's F temperatures as I like warmth and small heating bills.
However onto the model charts and there is nothing warm about the charts, and nothing has been shown that could be classed as warm. With the cold air so close the the UK a cold outbreak is always going to be likely - and indeed it does look as though we will be getting a cold northerly with snow for many in the near time span. Nothing to indicate a cold spell such as we have had, and I would be surprised to see such a long cold outbreak although we could get a short but more intense cold spell during February - something solar techniques show - but of course nothing to do with the charts at the moment. A lot of talk of February delivering colder and more snow in that month of late? Really - if my memory serves me right February for quite a while has been a warmer month than January - and my weather station records bear that one out. This is not what is termed a 'even larger teapot' - the charts are the kind of charts that were often what we were seeing in the 60's and 70's - but it has to be remembered that even though we suffered severe blizzards and cold spells in them times - apart from 1962/3 there were quite often mild rainly spells mixed in with these..
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2 or 3 degs colder and this morning's snow would have caused absolute chaos around here,although the precip may not have been so intense
Next weeks easterly has been downgraded as well which now looks like being on the cool side of average but mainly dry
Latest GFS has upgraded the easterly. The charts really don't have a clue at the moment. My instinct is for a cold overall outlook..
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The charts are changing so much from one output to another at the moment that it is my view none of them can be relied on. There is so much uncertaintly that to me forecasting instinct is going to be the only way to come to a conclusion. The lates GFS for instance is so very different to the previous. My instinct is the cold will be back - given the winters style this year and the solar output. Although I prefer mild I cannot for a moment see the Atlantic winning out to an old style raging Atlantic. A case of blowing hot and cold at best - cold at worse with no mild....
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The temperature and dew point are now dropping. Dew into minus figures and temperature only just above freezing. See the front has now stalled, came to a stop. Just a case of how long this is going to last before it peters out now I think...
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snowing here - front is slowing petering out on radar so i don't think it'll last too long
Hoping it don't last to be honest Andy. Have to go to Ponty this afternoon so don't want that distrupted. It is settling down to very low levels here but not effecting the roads - fingers crossed it stays that way..
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Snowing heavy up here in the upper Rhondda. Bwlch has turned white although thankfully the roads down here are not effected. Last thing I need is for more distruption....
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I don't really see that Shiver. The METO are looking at an undercutting scenario, so that areas that do see snow will have to see rain first and the front will be weakening anyway. Some snow for the highest ground is possible but I would be surprised if anywhere saw anything like 10cm.
Yes have to agree with you on that one. I will be surprised if snow falls in the South East for instance on low ground. In fact I would think it will be high ground only this time. And then turn back to rain. We will see...
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Thats what i am saying based on experience not computer predictions,as michael fish says hp over russia is huge and building and moving westwards cant beat gut instinct from sombody whos experience counts more than computer model predictions.
Michael Fish has the experience of forecasting back in the days when we used to get winters like this. And I used to look at charts back in them days too. It is quite right to use instinct based on experience as there is no way a high building over Russia can be ignored. They used to have a way of moving west and biting us in the backside in the olden days. And that is what Michael Fish must be seeing. In fact it were not unusual for the charts to change at very short notice either. So there is no way we can write off the cold returning. And I prefer mild so would rather not see that high - and at 1067 that is a hell of a strong one. I have to agree that the models are not used to or programmed for this current type of setups - and that changes at short notice are to be expected. The younger members will have to draw experience from looking back in the archives for the same type of setup or listen to the older members that have experienced these setups....
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I am sorry but this is slightly off topic but......... Why do winters always have to be snowy on this forum? I know we all like the stuff but if we do not get a cold senario shown on the models is it really worth banging on about winter being over? There is a lot of winter weather to be had still and that includes storms with heavy rain and winds and also frosty mornings with clear blue skies.
Don't give up and enjoy what we have got. In other words stop with the "winters over comments"
off to work now bye!
Could not agree more with your comments. I would like a warmer spell as I am sure many others would. And at the end of the day this thread is 'model output discussion'. Mild or cold. Snow or rain...The charts seem to have done a good turn around in less than 12 hours leading me to think the charts are in a flux as to what is going to happen. They could just as quick turnaround again within the next 12 hours. Whatever they lead to winter is far from over. And don't forget the UK has been spoiled for snow as already we have had far more than for many recent winters.
Interesting that all the models seem to agree - signalling to me it is game set and match for mild. Or is it?
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That's a nice warm fetch. lol..
Just managed to look at the pub run and myself I am going along with the GFS. If only the trend has shown to be correct of previous weeks. Also it goes along with my methods of using solar. Hopefully we can get rid of some of this snow we have down now in the valleys during the short thaw coming, we have a foot of snow here. But am expecting more of the white stuff before next week it out. We will see but this winter is far from finished...
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Amazing that a few days ago the GFS was rubbish - it was not delivering what was wanted - and the ECM was god - now this week it is vice versa.
When the GFS was consistantly going for a breakdown in the cold - it were rubbished as useless - as the ECM were going for cold. Till at short notice it went along with the GFS.
The GFS was of course right. The one thing I have noticed is the GFS is consistantly correct with trends. It trended the cold before Christmas at F1 along with the breakdown to something milder. It trended the cold after Christmas - and trended the current breakdown. And now is trending a colder again. When the GFS goes for trending mild again maybe good to remember this instead of rubbishing it because it is not what you want to see....
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I don't know which model or sum of models the MetO are using for their long term outlook but they are not seeing much cold - just colder than average (although I guess that could mean anything from rather could to extreme cold)
'During the first part of the week there will be one or two wintry showers here and there, although most places will be dry with colder than average temperatures, icy stretches and areas of mist and freezing fog. Then later in the week it currently looks likely that a mixture of rain, sleet and snow will encroach from the southwest, with less cold conditions edging into western and northwestern areas. Then over the weekend and during the second week we are currently expecting a gradual transition to nearer normal temperatures across all areas as a southerly or southwesterly airflow becomes established across the United Kingdom. There will be rain, sleet and hill snow at times, although confidence on the timing of this transition to milder weather is currently only low.
They are then going with what is shown on the GEFS control run rather than the OP
So going by the meto's long range record we can take it the opposite is true. To be honest I have no confidence in the Meto's forecasts at all beyond 4 days. As has been said the guys on here do much better more often. The trick is to pick up a trend, and as far as I am concerned that is about all you can do beyond 7 days.
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This is actually looking quite scary
That blocking looks so big that I can imagine it threatening our summer, snow in May/June looks a very strong possibility this year now
A high in place there in Summer would give us a scorcher. The continent is very cold in winter - but hot in summer. pray for a scandi high in summer for a real BBQ summer - not meto style. laughs..
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Until what is showing at +168 is at +72. :lol:
Let me put it this way the sign I used was spot on for 1987, 1991. This is why i've remained confident because the sign is even more evident than Jan 87. I would go as far to say i've never seen anything like it and neither has my mother who was the first to mention it to me!
You are a Tease. Come on - spill it. rotfl...Not nice to keep us all in suspense. It is looking to me as though this promised mild is getting squeezed out. Is it possible it will not make it further than the far South West?
Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Anybody prepared to risk their lives to fly now should sign a disclaimer so if the plane comes down - their family gets nought. Anybody would have to be well short of a brain cell to fly with these risks. Apart though from the fact that any plane coming down due to the ash could well kill dozens on the ground. KLM seem to be be putting profit before safety. Yes the ash is causing chaos. But better the distruption than dead. Safety has to be put first whatever anybody thinks. The risks are more than real. The Finish air force found immense damage to their jets flying through this cloud. And - the cloud looks like getting worse over the next few days not better..