derrylynne
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Posts posted by derrylynne
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whys that?... not being funny nick, but why isnt the 12z picking out a new trend? detail next week has been uncertain and the 12z just might have picked up on what may well happen. the fax @120 has the potential to throw troughs up from the atlantic in exactly the way the 12z runs with.
to my untrained eye, it looks plausable.
The GFS has been good though at picking up trends. So it could be the GFS is onto something. Certainly to me looks like the end of this cold spell is in sight...
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GFS in indicating a breakdown starting in about 5 days time. Ok there will be snow on the edge but looking at it we can expect the Atlantic to rush in then and turn it much warmer. Be interesting what the pub run says:-)
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Cold has been extended a bit on this run. Potentially more snow on Monday with snow showers from Saturday after. As per usual the GFS blows the FI horn and it turns milder from the 14th.
Bit like the GFS has gone into reverse this year. In past years remember how the colder air was always in F1 - always the promise the snow would arrive but it never did. This year however, the warm is always in F1 - a promise of getting warmer - but it never appears. Interesting times. I think Sunday needs watching as am expecting a large upgrade on Sunday's feature by Friday...
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I think the Germans are doing a bit of ramping. laughs. Yes certainly it is looking as though Sunday is going to be an interesting day for many. Where exactly and amounts the snow will be at this point in time is hard to say. Although I have heard that some are expecting Sunday to be much worse than yesterday and today for the UK as a whole. With the very low temperatures this is going to be a real challenge to many...
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Like Bennytes one day ok - I can live with that. Two days it's a pain. A week and it's pretty aweful. Any longer and it is a serious problem. A lot of you guys I am sure do not pay your own heating bills or have to get out. The bills are painful and not being able to go anywhere is a serious problem when it comes to getting food in etc. We live on a hill and it is a nightmare getting down it in this weather..To be honest if it turned mild I for one would not be complaining. Alas - as I do my own long range forecasts based on Solar techniques I cannot see it warming up - at least for more than one or two days - until Spring.
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This shower is getting better, turning into another flurry but this time with smaller flakes, but because everything is either wet or slushy its just not sticking. The council have been rubbing it in aswell, seen them going through my street a couple of times now with a big snow plough on the front.
Trouble is when it really is snowing heavy you don't see a plough. Must be to do with elf and safety. Don't want to drive on icy roads. laughs..
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The system that formed over Cardigan bay seems to be heading South for South West England. Noticed the stalled front has started moving, following the track of the system from Cardigan bay. Certainly seems to be acting differently to what was expected...
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Very odd weather here, clouds and snow have been pushing in from the north much of the morning, but the cloud to the north is not moving now and the showers are staying away...Clear skies above. No wind at all. Strange
Everything has stalled as the low forms over Cardigan Bay. It should all start moving again soon. Going to be some very heavy stuff for West Wales I think...
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What does this mean? Could it travel across Wales eventually?
West Wales could get some heavy falls along with South Wales and parts of South West England. There is already snow in North Wales. Waiting to see what updates appear now from the Meto. I am sure this has taken many by surprise. Seems the depression is forming much further West than expected. It is where it goes from here that is interesting....
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It really is fascinating watching the radar, i have been for a while now, this fast moving development off in Cardigan bay. That is no doubt why everything is stalled. Seems that is where the formation is taking place. Waiting now for an update from the Meto for warnings...
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Ok on the 12z fax the low was set to be starting to form over the west midlands, now i have no real data but the hook of cloud over sw wales looks like trying to form some shape there. COULD end up being another small depression or the low trying to form much further west. To be honest this is only looking at cloud via satelite and i have no pressure readings to back this up.
Here's in hope
I noticed that on the radar too. Am wondering if this is it forming much further west off the West and over the Irish sea. If so it will be more potent..
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The cold front has not gone through yet. Nor has the expected low pressure formed yet although it soon will do. As the front moves South it is going to stall. Just how far South it gets before it stalls it not quite known so is down to nowcasting. However as in all the situations surprises will happen with some getting more than expected - and others less. We will though all get some more snow. Amounts are almost impossible to predict with snow although this is a very unstable airstream so more showers of snow will form - many heavy too....
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Most of the reports in Scotland from our front are of rain. Scotland! If we can't get snow from this set-up we may as well give up lol.
Looking at the radar there are some small showers in Wales now - all of snow unless right on the coast. Same with Scotland. Apart for the coast it is snowing. Also with night now setting in and temperatures dropping off fast not likely to be rain. Unless of course on the coast...
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Is it such a sin if Western and Northern folk express their opinion that it remains rather dry for the forseeable?
For Ireland, Scotland and Wales it looks dry after Tuesday evening for the rest of the week
Far from ideal for us, FACT!
I have seen these kind of synoptics before being an 'old un'. The low could in fact be a little further west, and that in what is a very small country width wise would make all the difference. In fact more than once have I seen forecasts of massive dumpings of snow for the SE - when in fact it were the SW that were being dug out the next day while the SE were mainly dry. In my opinion there is a lot of ramping to the extreme on this thread.
True places such as Kent, EA, and the NW will do well from snow showers or streamers - but to write off the chances of the rest of the UK at this time is wrong. A few days in weather is a long time, and there will be subtle changes that may well benifit other parts the UK at the expense of the SE...
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Gosh the runs this morning are quite frankly amazing, its almost like a re-run of Jan 63 jeez!
Anyway the 0z ECM is as expected a rather mammoth upgrade, with a very nice flow indeed and utterly bitter temps as well...the 06z is also quite frankly insane how good it is though I'm not actually all that happy with how it gets us there, lets just say it looks very flabby indeed between 144-168hrs but the broad set-up looks solid enough...
I think I'm going to enjoy looking at the ensembles somehow!
I was saying to my wife this morning when looking at the fax charts the last time I saw anything like this was the charts for 1963. Amazing...Given that we have been led to believe that a winter like this is now impossible....
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The fax charts are stunning for snow lovers with trofs forming in an unstable flow. I would expect snow in most parts the country over the coming few days - although of course amounts are impossible to predict in this kind of situation. Certainly looks like this is going to be a winter that anyone younger than 30 years will not remember. The thing to remember too is that with the deep cold pool setting up in Europe this will be very hard to shift and could remain there for quite some time before it breaks down.
I would say welcome to a 'proper' winter guys:-)
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Once the unstable NE air is established it is almost a certainty that trofs and lows will form as they move down. It is all but impossible for these systems to be picked up until very near to the event. I am one of the old ones here that well remembers the winter of 1962/3 and the very cold winters in the 80's. To give an example while in a prolonged cold spell such as this event about to come off the forecast was for dry and frost. A polar low formed rapidly in the cold air stream and I was snowed in by deep drifts for three days. This is the kind of thing that can happen.
These charts are the best seen since the old days - never in what has been termed the even larger teapot have we seen charts such as these. As a starting point you have to have an entrenched cold spell to establish a really good old fashioned snow event. I expect looking at the kinks in the isobars and the airflow that most will see snow at some point. Patience is the name of the game...
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I have just looked at the latest GFS output and to be honest it does not look credible. Especially in F1. Personally I will bin the pub run - not because I don't like it or it don't fit in with what I want - but because it does not seem to shape up. some of the evolutions for instance just do not seem credible. Be interesting to see what tomorrows run look like....
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To be honest, I didn't got my hopes up for here, I said yesterday on the forum, that we would get a wintry mix, which is what happened. However I did think that other he
There is about a foot of snow on the top of the Bwlch mountain now. Although the road is closed. Nice to look at as it is in front of me - but not to drive up. lol. However, down here it has been sleet or very wet snow all day. Some ice around so not a nice day. I reckon if the precipitation keeps going it will be pretty deadly up there.....
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There is still some heavy precipitation set for tomorrow morning, I know earlier we had 4-6cm within a few hours, or is this likely to be even more rain?
I am pretty sure it will be rain tomorrow although the mountains could get some...Will probably have to wait now till Thursday to see what happens.
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Think for those of us in the south who are disappointed with the way today has turned out there are some good possibilities yet.
What i would like to know and probably so would everyone else is where the front will stall, how long will it stall for and will the air be cold enough when it starts heading back south. If we could figure all that out we would be laughing.
Personally i am not ruling anything out you never can tell in these situations :lol:
Looking at the radar the front has stalled now and don't seem to be moving anywhere. We have what can best described as ice pellets now. They have covered everything and the roads are treacherous. With the front not moving this is just sitting over us at the moment. The worse of the lot really. Ice everywhere...I am wondering if this could intensify....
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Strange how the met have upgraded the warning of severe weather in wales considering there first warning was ott the new warning is very OTT.
I think the Meto have performed very badly. There is a lot of snow on the Bwlch - but the snow level has not extended to any great extent to lower levels - yet the meto have issued new warning for the valleys. This is despite the front soon passing through. They also forecast on their morning forecast rain turning to snow over the Midlands and Gloucestershire - that has not happened. I don't think there is a chance that any of the warnings issued will come about. As said they are just covering their arses just in case.....
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Dew point and temperature dropped rapidly with the sleet turning to snow. Not sticking yet as the ground is wet but expect it to later. That will be fun to drive on - ice under snow.....
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I'm expecting snow for the central and upper valleys, but it's unclear to me whether the PPN is likely to remain as snow between tonight and Thursday, or if it's likely to alternate between rain and snow. It doesn't help that the radio just announced that rain is likely south of Abercynon, barely a mile from here, though that forecast doesn't sound right at all.
I notice the temperature and dew point are rising at the moment. An indication it will be rain not snow.....Showers are breaking out in various parts now and so far they appear to be rain. Although to be honest I would rather rain than a foot of snow....
General Model Output Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I would love this to come off but somehow the GFS is making this too easy. There is quite a bit with the second half the run that does not seem believable to me. Ok I am not an expert so others will be able to explain. But it seems to be far too progressive to me....