SW Saltire

Reached 21c by 12:30 but it has since clouded over with showers looking ominous to the south. Dissapointing...

Quick question: where is 'Northern England' (where is starts) - Manchester northwards? Or say Lancaster or Penrith or is just including Cumbria and the far NE I.e Tyneside. I better get on topic so it's a glorious morning here, warmest of the year looks likely with 22c forecast, might scrape 23...

Knocker look at the charts below that, indicating a 24 hour clock being used. I.e 18:00 being 6pm thus I believe SS's charts say at 3am on thurs, Friday etc the warmest it may be at 3am is -3 in some spots and may be lower (at 3am) so obviously with the now strong sun maxes (afternoon) would be nearer 10c. Correct me if I'm wrong...EDIT: I think I slightly misinterpreted what you meant. I.e -3 is a very damaging frost for May. Yeah, ignore the above, I understand what you meant now. I wasn't trying to patronise

Been raining heavily for over 12 hours now in very gusty winds. At least it's a Sunday. In the top 5 or so worst days this winter and that's saying something. Northernlights did you still have dust blowing about? I noticed when I went to Stirling it wasn't that wet and when I came down on the train you hit Kilmarnock and from there south it just gets wetter and wetter on the west coast

What exact timeframe are you referring to? I'm guessing to the charts posted above? The early Tuesday potential is certainly a good chance for many western areas. That is a showery source of precipitation, so blizzard potential for short spells on high ground if the GFS is correct. Not snowmagedon just yet. I'd be wary of those charts until they get within t-72 which is when the high res models can assess the detail. The 528 DAM is down the central spine of Scotland on those charts and needs to be further east for more widespread snow. If the GFS verified it would probably be the best short spell of winter weather for the west all winter.I was feeling positive about prospects into the second/third week of Februaty and beyond from a wintery/ less wet perspective, especially given stratospheric optimism always pointing towards this time frame. However after reading Recretos' post today (page 73 2nd or so post in) my optimism has been practically crushed. Transient snowfall looks like the best we can hope for out to towards the end of February at least... At least the Ski reports are doing fantastically

That would be truly exceptional if that verified as shown. 100 mph+ would be widespread in the west, the record of 128 mph (on low level - I'm aware cairngorm recorded 172 or something close to that) could be not far from being challenged.I think this low - as you said - is gaining support but I'd wager (hope) it gets downgraded but even so it would still be a monster. As an aside, going back to the post that said the MetO mentioned transient snow Saturday. I was rather dissapointed on tonight's forecast tbh. It is a downgrade for under 200m snow really. I'm traveling back to Stirling that day so I hoped I'd encounter some snow but that looks very unlikely. The front is moving through more quickly than previously forecasted (around 4/5 in the morning) and there appears to be no low level snow, even those with moderate high will struggle for anything meaningful I'm afraid. The GFS and ECM do bring us some cool uppers behind depressions and hopefully this will give some of us a brief covering of snow, especially with height. Let's keep our fingers crossed

Tumbleweed floats by.....There will be very few apart from misguided people like James Madden et al who think this. The only chance I can see of some very transient snowfall which ,appears to be too far south for Scotland, is next Friday's low. On the northern edge there may be some wet snow to lowish (the 'ish' is a reference to my posts yesterday) I.e those of you who have say 100m+ might see some flakes.Anyway, the models are very undecided on this feature, timing, strength, location etc. Apart from that I see nothing else. We are not entering a period of blowtorch SWlies. So Cairngorm should surpass the 3m snow barrier quite soon and will have great cover until well into April/May barring a heatwave. Upper temperatures are still cool but nowhere near cold enough for good low level snow and are extremely marginal/too mild for low level transient snow in the next 10 days. I'm open to listen to other points of view but this is how I see the models at present. I hope they change. So in other words your source would appear to be looking for publicity to put it kindly...

It shows the difference being in the lee of high ground makes and when the lows are just that bit furthe south than normal. Yes, luckily for this thread most of the storms next week will be most prevalent in Central Southern England but I still think most of Scotland will see a lot of rain. You northerners may yet again recieve the least amount of rain.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/r/5/Rainfall_amount_actual.gif http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/r/0/Rainfall_amount_average.gif These are the graphs I was talking about, hopefully they work Colsuth - you appear to be in the darkest brown area, which is the lowest category and driest in the UK. Count yourself incredibly lucky!

The met office data (up to the 28th) show that for Northernlights' location there has been between 50 to 75 mm of rain (probably nearer 50) which is about 60% of normal. Whereas, I have had between 200-300mm. A blob of 300-500 exists where no hill is which suggests the whole area is nearer 300mm than 200, thus I've had in excess of 200% of normal. Quick update: the snow never arrived. Incredibly heavy rain is present, driven on by 40-50mph gusts, which is falling almost horizontally. The only saving grace is that it has very recently turned to sleet, with flakes of snow in the wind. Good example of evaporative cooling I suppose...

Thanks, to Damianslaw for the reply. You've said what I was trying to convey but in a much more eloquent way Also, February 96 - that was it I couldn't remember which years near then were bad. (I lived higher up on a hill just on the eastern side of Dumfries then but) December 95 (when I was born) we were totally snowed out of the house (trying to get back from hospital) also we had a huge snowfall between 97-99. 4 feet of lying snow, suggest the pictures. However, this is greatly enhanced by the extra 150 metres we had then - current location probably had 1-2 feet. So yes, I either get cold and little/no snow or the holy grail of tons of snow and completely snowed in, it's boom or bust for meHawesy - I'm sure there are a few that are worse off than me. Firstly those closer to the coast are far worse with frosts very rare. The golf course can be played on all year round due to warm sandy soil and very mild weather compared to where I live. I feel sorry fr you, as being near the east coast i'd assume you'd get a bit of snow. Where I live, as Damianslaw states I only have to travel 20 odd miles to get to local high ground southern uplands. (Only 20 miles to the coast as well). So I'm sure Wanlochhead (is that the right spelling I'm unusure) and other higher areas can get snow in March April but for me to see a spell of cold continental temperatures (that have been plentiful in recent years - December 2010 the warmest max in 2 whole weeks straight was -2c, with so little snow on the ground that was very impressive (also compare that to my lowest MINIMUM this winter of -2c shocking)- then time is starting to tick by.I'm slightly encouraged by signs in the MOD and the Strat thread. The (consistently all over the place) GFS does show a Greenland high. The models are unclear on what impact the Strat may have/ the direction we take after the next 10 or so days of supercharged Atlantic moisture. So if we can get a the daddy that is a GH then we can get cold and snow even for me but I need it to be close to happening in Mid February not forming the start of March, time is of the essence

The heavy rain turned to hailstones as they woke me up a couple of hours ago. They have left a covering on some surfaces. So it does look likes it has briefly snowed... Temperature 2.5c - so not that great for the next front due to arrive in half an hour, still hoping I can see some falling snow and with the partially frozen surfaces I might, just might, lie

Yeah, I should point out I'm 15m asl haha. So hence my surprise at me getting wet snow and most of this forum not surpassing that

Very heavy rain/sleet here so looks good further north and where the heaviest precipitation hits in a few hours

Thanks for sharing your local insight Ok, so as far back as I can remember... 2003-05 very little snow from what I remember, I doubt any of those years reached a four inch covering at any point. 2006 - nope, 2007 - no snow at all I think, 2008 - cold second half but no snow apart from a covering in early February so barely 1 inch deep. 2009- cold but many showers frustratingly missed us yet again, 2 inches was our max depth. (I hated 2008-09 and 2009-10 here as they were so close but so useless on the snow front) 2010-11 - incredibly cold. Very little snow during December and November. Had a 2 inch covering that slowly diminished until a very heavy shower came and pushed snow cover to 10cm so YES. 2011-12 - nope although we got an incredibly heavy hail shower in late February or early March. It left a 2 inch covering everywhere. I've never experienced anything like it, it lasted 3 hours and was very localised (only about 4 miles wide) but alas that doesn't count as snow, 2012-13 definately quite a few transient 5-10 cm falls, also had a very potent NW flow that left a good covering and obviously March gave 12 inches so YES, 13-14 looking unlikely - so far one incredibly small snowfall in December before it rained. So in summary in the last 11 winters 2 have met your criteria for a 'good' winter. A further 2 got half that figure. Like I say my location is poor for snow and much better for warmth (achieved 29.7c in July this year, rarely doesn't get at least 25c in summer) I realise my location isn't representative of most of Scotland but a significant part of the country doesn't have much altitude. At least most of the above winters delivered at least -5 (almost all) -10 on 4 of those 11 winters and December 2010 gave me -16. Whereas, this winter..... Wait for it....... -2 WOW and the next lowest minimum -0.5 = truly horrendous almost unprecedented. So save to say it's been incredibly poor, no sun at all, I have had literally 6 air frosts which is atrocious (two of those in the last 3 days)

I won't give up don't worry but my thoughts may meander towards a 50/50 ie looking for March 2012/April 2011 or for a March 2013 re-run. I have the same climate practically as you. Slightly cooler but affected by the Solway Firth. On a very clear day I can see the hills at the northern periphery of the Lake District. In a wider context I would agree, If I lived say Lanark or When I move back to Stirling in two weeks then it's a different kettle of fish. Purely from IMBYism Northerlies never deliver snow (cold and sunny and frosty) and Easterlies are not as cold and are awful. We rely on a northerly having a NNW element of a very cold NW wind (they don't have that cold uppers though) or the holy grail: the slider which brought do much snow last march, 94,95 and I'm sure circa late nineties. (I obviously never experienced this). My point is my location needs a cold spell in order to get that rogue snow shower in order to get snow, or, embedded cold with an Atlantic front approaching. So, winter isn't over for Elgin, Aberdeen, Inverness, Dundee, Fife, Kelso but for more western area that require a longer deeper cold for lying snow then I think it looks unlikely. You only have to look at the MOD to see the Horrendous output. I for one am not impressed and do not need more rain! I'll send it to Northernlights

Depends what lowland is really. I mean guaranteed we get these 150m above snow events numerous times so that means I'll get sleet perhaps falling snow in the heavier bursts (like today) but nothing like 2 inches + as you describe as a decent covering. Last winter had about 10 events where it snowed left a decent covering and then rain an washed all away. However, this winter nothing. Glasgow may get some snow tonight but apart from that I doubt it will get a 2 inch plus covering. That bit of height is so important though, they were sledging in Sanquhar today with between 5-10cm of snow.... Safe to say I'm wanting to see the back of this winter. Yes, I don't doubt those at 200m+ could still see a decent snow event but for those of us not so lucky then no current weather charts show low level snow that will deliver 2 inches+ and that takes us to mid February.The towel has been thrown, it's in mid-air and falling rapidly... I wonder how long until it hits the canvas

That is just unbelievable. Never mind Somerset, here we have had rain 27/31 days this January. The river has broken it's banks 4 times. It's just crazy the differences.If the pressure rise from the south occurs then the jet stream will move further north meaning the lows will reach you so no need to worry Catchmydrift- I won't bet against 'widespread lowland falling snow' at some point if the current charts verify an are not modified but I doubt it would be anything other than very transient away from Southern uplands, border hills, NW Highlands, Cairngorms etc. We need a pattern change and quickly!

I'm not denying we can't get cold March months. What I'm saying is to produce the sunshine snow showers set up you then really do need 'deep cold' uppers. I remember around the 10th of March 2013. Maybe it's due to my more Southerly location but we had -10 or so upper temperatures and the snow didn't lie properly and in the sun it still melted. So we can't achieve December 2010 cold or anywhere near that in MarchCatchmydrift has caught my drift exactly, what I am saying.Our best chance is the end of March 2013 slider scenario. No deep cold needed, just a slight drift of the continent ahead of the precipitation. The Sun has less of an effect. Arran did get buckets of snow, I got around a foot of lying snow and drifts in excess of 6 feet with roads blocked etc. So it can happen but it's rare. I'd also point out the snow didn't settle from 9am to around 4pm even with 6 inches of lying snow from the night and early morning before. Why? Due to the sun taking the temperature up. So if that had occurred now I wonder how much more snow I could have got. Also, despite cold uppers the snow melted everyday, progressively more quickly each day die to less mass of snow on the ground. The sun is simply a different beast after the equinox when compared to January and December.This is if we get the ideal set-up. The jigsaw most likely won't fit perfectly and we have to enjoy Spring and Summer and next Autumn pray for a better winter. So don't lose all faith but we are running rapidly out of time although if your in Inverness you have maybe an extra week or two compared to me. Frankly, I'd take a UK high, even pumping in mild weather. As long as it was dry, sunny and we might even get a frost in that set-up!

I'm shocked reading through this thread. Coastal Dumfries has had snow for around an hour that didn't lie. All hills above 150m or so are very white and many places a little further inland have seen a good covering of snow. I'm surprised most of you have seen less than me given your far greater elevation and distance from the west coasts. Hopefully you get some tonight I think the game for winter proper is up tbh. Yes, the Strat looks better but by the time tht propagates down, even if it is successful in either reducing the power of the Canadian PV or by deflecting lows southwards, it will be at least mid-Feb. So we can still get cold till April given our latitude over Kent for example, but real cold I.e -10 and below looks unlikely. If the lows can undercut then lots of snow could fall in marginal conditions. I'm not saying we can't see snow but realistically the real cold will not occur this winter IMHO. The rain just continues...

Exactly, I was wondering if it was just me that remembered the giant snow event for a large proportion of the UK that occurred on the 23rd of March 2013. After the equinox!!! This is not a sunshine and showers situation, a slider with copious precipitation is quite different as has been expressed by numerous posters in here

Realistically, the clean snow showers easterly was an outsider. The UKMO has went from picking a colder run in comparison to its ensembles (the 00z) and has most likely produced a run that will be at the milder end of its ensembles this afternoon. This is hardly a disaster. All the very knowledgable posters on this forum expected a halfway house scenario, which is exactly what appears to be suggested this afternoon. This will introduce lots of precipitation and let's hope for a little luck with regard to snowfall. The best spell of this winter is almost guaranteed, let's hope it's just the start and turns out to be fruitful. Somewhere in the UK will get copious amounts of snow it would appear. P.S surely the ECM will not produce another wild ensemble member tonight and pick something more towards the mean of the 00z or better.

The next ice age has not been predicted though really. A snowfest is more likely. The charts Purga has posted are marginal for lowland snow but it wouldn't need much to change this. If we can get lower dew points ahead of a system moving in then we would see a better result than the upper temperatures suggest. I'd also like to highlight these are ensembles from the GFS 06z. The UKMO this morning showed a much more potent easterly. Even if that does not appear on the 12z, the ECM was better than the GFS for snowfall. The placement of this block is of paramount importance with regard to the depth of cold air we can get into the UK and hopefully the Azores high can back off to allow the lows to be forced further south. These two factors are both up in the air at the moment, although we should have a better idea after the 12z but it may still not be anywhere near decided.

To my surprise, 5c and sunny quickly turned to 1.5c and heavy snow. Back to sleet now and a chilly 2c in the gusty wind

They are all mean charts, the OP had -10 uppers at +192...Still, the mean is not bad at all really. Anyway, +192 etc is miles away. Let's get the +96 building blocks to verify first. Thanks, to Nick for posting the NCEP comments and this would add some credence to the ECM's version of the upstream pattern in the shorter term. Also, as has been mentioned before, if those positively tilted runs with positive uppers are removed (big if obviously) the mean will lower.The problem I have is really margin for error in regard to uppers. We need the good synoptic charts to verify obviously but we also lack a real cold pool. I totally accept the notion that as t-0 cones closer the 850s should become better and we can get our own cold pool as it's mid-January. However, as was mentioned last winter, in general we have a 2/3rds move from GFS and 1/3rd ECM. If on the stellar runs we got -12 uppers for example then we could afford the 1/3rd climb down to say -8 or -9ish but it's far more marginal in the current set up. Anyway, this is all hypothetical. Let's get the building blocks to verify and then we are well and truly 'in the game'