SW Saltire

If this was the ECM ens then maybe it would have some credence. For a 'mega coldie' you seen very adverse to seeing any potential in the outlook. Taking all charts at face value is one think but for a few consecutive afternoons after the 'small' model has given it's daily dose of despair you proclaim that it'll all be over if the ECM operational doesn't show an easterly which is completely untrue. Fortunately, upto now the ECM 12z has been very positive for coldies. If the ens remain supportive of a continental feed overall then how can the Scandi high be dead in the water? Making such bold claims can only eventually backfire although that's not to say you won't get away with it this time...

So pretty tame then Thank you for your reasoning and it's exactly what i thought and yes i believe we will at least see widely 70-75 mph gusts with 90 in exposed places and the worst affected will be over 100 mph. The worry is that even 24 hours ago it was not forecast to be this strong so it seems to deepening more rapidly than expected.

What kind of gusts did we see with 'hurricane bawbag'? as we might not be that far away, at the present rate of upgrades every single model run. Down to at least 972 mb but with current trends the actual storm could be at least sub 970. EDIT: after seeing Lorenzo's post it wouod appear we will not reach 957mb but it won't be too far away and it isn't all about the central pressure which determines the wind speed... is it?

They tend to have characteristics of what Blair's 'poodle' MPs. i.e nodding dogs with the operational and tend to flip drastically and uniformly. Hence, i was suprised to see as many as 11 members this morning supporting some kind of easterly

These winds could cause slight problems if they were the 'gust' speeds never mind the mean! I'm confident at least 100mph will be recorded somewhere and i'd hate to be on cairngorm summit, a bit breezy might sum it up EDIT : snap Matty M!

The GFS 12z shows the powerful low, bringing strong winds on Thursday to many northern areas, with a central pressure of mid 970s mb

Just read back through this tread to March 23rd and i'm sorry i could not have answered the calls that asked if anyone in southern Scotland could update given the snow. As this thread's members seem to be in the central belt or above. It was a very memorable spell looking back, beaten in this area only by years near my birth as i know it snowed in 1995 and i think a year early 90s we had 3 or 4 foot of snow but it vanished after a few days unlike in March last year. The longevity of that spell will take some beating despite the fact is was well into spring (for this my home area at least).

yes, from an IMBYism pov battleground scenarios are the real deal. Even after the equinox in late march we achieved 6 foot drifts and almost a foot of level snow in Dumfriesshire with more further west, as was seen in Arran. Thus, an easterly, as Ravelin says would need to be very potent although it is usually very clear in the west provoking a continental i.e. sharp frosts, sunny days and if we get a dusting then the low dewpoints will mean it will stay

Great post Lorenzo, so the above chart would , in laymens terms, allow a Scandi high to form more easily (if it verifies) as there is little residual vorticity that has been left behind? Was it not mentioned a few days ago that the deep FI Greenland height rises did not come to fruition due to the models underestimating the amount of vorticity left behind.... if so, the above chart show be seen as encouraging but should not be taken as gospel

The operationals this morning have not shown agreement regarding a future easterly (shock horror). This was to be expected and is simply part and parcel of the run variability that will definitely take place. The update by Ian F is very encouraging but obviously a long way from coming to fruition. It is also good that 11 GFS ensemble members develop some kind of easterly flow as add 2/3rds more amplification and.... if only it were that simple. This is of course the easy part, watching the Scandi high tentatively be brought into nearer FI. Once it reaches high res the real drama will start. If i was living on the east coast it would certainly seem like winter was upon me with temperatures seeming suppressed with the propensity for them to continue to lower, although the magical white stuff looks like a while off for the time being

See the post from Ian F, which states that the MetO see a very cold pattern developing in the 10-15 day range. This easterly has a long way to go...

I think if it did our opinion of it would be changed significantly. I mean even the GFS would not be so persistent with it's opposition to blocking as it would have 240 less hours to be wrong!

As is frequently said, look at the BIGGER picture. Yes, other locations in the globe will be experiencing colder weather but the ECM's later stages are only going to lead to an easterly. I can put up with Greece getting some snow as long as we are also in the firing line! Regarding an earlier post, i agree Mucka. The GFS never modeled the upstream pattern correctly at all. It has been lauded as winner by some purely through default, i.e. not showing the northerly but it was so reluctant to accept changes. Thank you for the verification stats, It backs up our suspicions as the GFS is in 4th position, with the ECM easily first. I was actually a bit harsh on the GEM yesterday as the stats suggest that it is only slightly behind the UKMO. Why is it always the same though? "if the easterly isn't shown on the ECM it's game over" then the GEM shows promise and so does the ECM and it's all aboard the easterly express! If the ECM hadn't shown an easterly it would not have changed that much. This potential easterly will take time to evolve and obviously it could go up in smoke but there will be many trials and tribulations before anything is resolved, we can bet on that! Look at the FACTS! they CLEARLY show otherwise!

I'd agree with most of your sentiments although, unfortunately we don't know how much residual energy will be left over Scandanavia so we will have to wait and see. Exactly, all output beyond 144 should be treated with caution. Unfortunately, for the Ski resorts it looks like this milder phase ,that seems inevitable in order to achieve a Scandi high, will wipeout any early snowfall If we can't have cold then bring on exceptional mild i say! at least it will beat anticyclonic mediocraty

How does one GFS run that is not even finished yet, constitute as no Scandi high, no potential cold december is over. I don't get it. This is not just directed at your post snowice btw. Barry95 post proves my point entirely

It is beyond the realms of possibility really... you are talking about an incredibly rare chance

Firstly, i wasn't disagreeing with what Nick had said. I was merely posting my reasoning behind why i personally am not that obsessed by an easterly from an IMBY pov (this may change if we get an easterly in february when i am located in Stirling, which is much closer to the east coast than Dumfries). It is simple really, i see far more snow from a greenland block and the battleground scenario can deliver in a very big way for a region affected by the solway firth. Therefore, if i lived in the south of England generally an easterly would give me more snow and therefore i would chase it to verification. I take your point that a North-easterly can be obtained from a Greenland block as well. I also wholeheartedly agree that a Greenland block is the best and in general most substantial, in this regard you are preaching to the converted

Sorry, i've only just seen your post. The cold uppers were never forecast to anywhere near undercut the front on thursday sufficiently to turn rain to snow away from high ground. The main event was the copious snow showers brought in on a raging northerly wing which was to last for sebveral days with uppers as low as -14. However, since that earlier prediction it looks like a 36 hour event maybe 48, with far less showers (they'll still be of snow) and not as impressively cold uppers either unfortunately

your welcome, I take your point that Mogreps may not have such a strong signal and thus maybe they do not mention it. However, the MetO word forecasts do change at the drop of a hat and if the Scandi high does make it from distant FI to a closer timeframe on different models then i'm sure they'll mention it. As Ian F has mentioned previously, their attention will be on the more immediate future with weather forums such as ourselves already on to the next cold horizon

I think the northerly has been well documented, did you think the last forum got to 147 pages by talking about mild south-westerlies? Our weather even just after the weekend is going to be dependent on where that high sets up and thus it is relevant if the high migrates to the north-east and creates the prospect of an easterly

Well, surely IMBYism comes into play. Most people on this forum are English and most of those are southern centric, therefore Scotland would have to be buried in snow in order for Portsmouth to get a dusting from a northerly 9/10. Thus, those in the South-east will obviously prefer the easterly. Not only are you looking at a less reliable way of getting cold into the UK than a northerly with a Greenland block but you have now got a greater audience all intently waiting for the next frame. Resulting, - as you so aptly put- in casualties with a lot more than toys and prams being thrown in this forum

Exactly, unlike winters of circa 10 years ago we are not sitting here in February, still snowless and looking at week two for inspiration. This is only the second day of winter proper, with a northerly blast imminent and the rumblings of a more substantial cold spell a possibility. I wonder how long this optimism will last... probably until the next t72 shortwave spoiler!

Realistically, they are hardly going to call a Scandi high when ensemble support is at best 50/50 for it and when it is well over a week away. Can you imagine if they had run with the northerly when (i think it was 2 mornings ago) we almost had agreement on a much more severe spell. The MetO did mention the 'beast from the East' for that easterly last year, i remember my neighbour saying that to me as i had just had to endure the set of 12z that totally crushed our dreams...

It's still too raw! This is a timely reminder of how fickle easterlies are. The FI period could become very low i.e. t48 with some easterlies. Let's hope the less experienced viewers heed your advice and DO NOT bank on an easterly coming to fruition until cross model agreement at a timescale that is within 2 or at most 3 days