SW Saltire

They are all mean charts, the OP had -10 uppers at +192...Still, the mean is not bad at all really. Anyway, +192 etc is miles away. Let's get the +96 building blocks to verify first. Thanks, to Nick for posting the NCEP comments and this would add some credence to the ECM's version of the upstream pattern in the shorter term. Also, as has been mentioned before, if those positively tilted runs with positive uppers are removed (big if obviously) the mean will lower.The problem I have is really margin for error in regard to uppers. We need the good synoptic charts to verify obviously but we also lack a real cold pool. I totally accept the notion that as t-0 cones closer the 850s should become better and we can get our own cold pool as it's mid-January. However, as was mentioned last winter, in general we have a 2/3rds move from GFS and 1/3rd ECM. If on the stellar runs we got -12 uppers for example then we could afford the 1/3rd climb down to say -8 or -9ish but it's far more marginal in the current set up. Anyway, this is all hypothetical. Let's get the building blocks to verify and then we are well and truly 'in the game'

IF did warn of increasing 'Shannon entropy' a couple of days ago. This is clearly illustrated in the NWP. GEM still good, UKMO is ok, but if either the UKMO or the horrendous GFS verified we would need to start building a netweather ark. If the ECM is better and crucially the ECM's ensembles then I'll still be happy. People will say wait till the 0z, they will conclusively decide. No, the journey has only just begun

Depends on where you live really. This thread should almost be happier with today's output as we have a higher chance of trough disruption nearer to us and therefore the chance for significant snow where the uppers are most suitable. Today's output has greater longevity than the quick blast of easterly winds would have done. Of course after 3:30pm today, it will all have changed. For better or for worse...

Firstly, tweets in recent winters have been quoted by both camps and have been proved wrong the next day. Mr Sussex seems sure that the UKMO 168 chart (seen in house so could IF elaborate later?) would be good. I trust his judgement. As has also been pointed out, what constitutes as 'not going for it' is this just op based? The reason I say that is the GFS ensembles do have milder members and yet the tweet states that model is for the easterly... I think MOGREPS will just have a split and thus being inconclusive. Another great day for the coldies and the upgrades keep steadily flowing. Let's just keep perspective, enjoy the ride and remember to hold on tight! EDIT: LS's post above is very valid IMO. I reckon the milder solutions on MOGREPS are for te same reason as the GFS with the 'bowling ball' low etc. Remember all OPS have been positive today

Your post shows the proposed dramatic change well Lorenzo. I was wondering what is the chance (of the initial low that stalls) turning to snow? End of March 2013... I realise it is a bit early for that but it would appear to be IMBY the best shot of significant snow as opposed to light wintry showers...EDIT: I have just seen Snowking's post in the MOD, seems promising as long as it makes it to me...

Your correct in what you are saying but I'd vouch for the fact that only 12 hours or so it was a brief Scandi high and then a quick return to zonal. Now we have some trough distribution, potential snow and a slow return to mild. Give it a few days (very reminiscent of Jan to March 2013 in the sense that the mild air could keep getting pushed back) and we could be looking at at least a cold snap... Hard not to feel optimistic when compared to the last few weeks. Good (for the GFS) GFS 12z, GEM, ECM, JMA and we suspect the UKMO is ok. Roll on the Pub run!

An amazing day today on the solway coast. Luckily my Grandparents house was built with an extra 3 feet of height so the water didn't get in today but others were not so lucky unfortunately. The greatest waves in their 26 year residence at the coast. The waves were at LEAST 20ft plus. Some managed to clear the 12 ft banking and the whole house. Fascinating and yet rather sad for all those affected. Mother Nature at her extravagant best

Morning all, horrendous morning here. Very strong winds and heavy rain. Local river due to flood in an hour and tidal surge expected around 2pm. Let's hope a cold February and March can stop this winter being remembered as a rampagingly zonal winter with many people being flooded out of their homes...

Yes BUS, the flooding in Dumfries is quite severe an a shame for all the local businesses yet again! However, it's much worse in the more rural locations of Moniaive (to the North West, 20 miles or so) where roads are truly impassible and people are not able to get home. Credit to the Met Office as they gave us a special Amber warning and it was needed. More rain tomorrow morning and worryingly New Years Day could force the river higher still. The all time records are a good 6 feet higher on the old buildings but we may (hopefully not) get closer to them before January is out - according to the models out to t-240 at least

Amber warning now out for the South West (why me) and this does not bold well for the still saturated ground and full rivers.

Exactly, I found a thread on netweather from a google search into said theory [(shakes with fear at the very thought of it ] which was 2008 and it was just so outrageous. Yes, that comment (the most liked on the forum full stop) was amazing and yet that still failed. It changes so often and the drama and suspense is fantastic and is free to anyone to read and post on. I love how we know said cold spell is going to at least partially verify way in advance and the general public have no clue there is such an extreme possibility on the (virtual) horizon. The Steve Muir vs Ian Brown debate is just the highlight of any winter for me but so many others (who regularly contribute on this thread) are very informative and post fantastically reasoned and detailed posts thus helping the overall standard of this forum

Totally agree apart from the part which states that this thread is 'far more enjoyable'. It's definitely a great thread but nothing can beat the MOD thread with an impending cold spell which may or may not materialise. The dispair of December 2012's beast from the east debacle and then the euphoria of the SSW coming into force by pulverising the PV resulting in the gigantic snow event (IMBY) after the equinox, in late march.

We all started somewhere The MOD is a perhaps daunting place to post so these quieter threads are a good place for such questions. Just read the forum guides and the MOD and you'll catch up quickly. If you follow the discussion it will eventually sink in... Although that tactic was not so successful for me with regard to the stratospheric predictions thread, they use big words there

They are the 'big 2' computer models. The ECM (European Meterological Centre - it's French so hence it's not EMC) is the best performing model. The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is the American product. The UKMO (UK met office) is our model so to speak. It only goes to t-144 so hence not used for trends as often. Hope that helps, more can be found in the forum help guides :)EDIT: BUS beat me to it!

Probably true but BA said previously something that GP had said. This was that when the PV is stronger it will filter through more quickly and have a greater effect... forgive me if I'm wrong

That is mainly correct it would seem for most of England and Wales, however, if one lived in Inverness I'm not sure if it is so accurate. I'll bow down to superior knowledge but wouldn't the ECM's predictions for the Christmas period not give a chance of snow in Scotland, especially the North of the country. Although, as you say, it won't last any more than a couple days at best.

Currently lightly snowing with a covering on some surfaces such as concrete. Very cold day with a max of 3c and the temperature is 1c currently and has risen from the early frost that set in so it'll turn to rain in a few hours

Well, it looks like dull, mundane and fairly mild will describe the weather for a good period of mid December. The north of the British Isles may see some rain but at least we will not see the usual soaking that occurs when we normally get mild weather in winter. Bad news for coldies but we have time on our side and the good news is for livestock, farmers and the festive period being less of a panic with deliveries not being interrupted. At least some of us have seen the first snow of the winter with a light dusting here at the moment

So when's the 'zonal train' arriving? oh, it's been put back yet again i see, right...

Currently snowing in the strong breeze. Although, doesn't feel that cold. 3c and falling. Violent night with a reported gust of 106mph in stirlingshire so here in stirling it must have been in the mid 90s. Very festive

yes, sorry the last two images are for higher up i think and are different to the first 4

That is fine, if you had said upper temps aren't condusive to snow. However, in all your posts you have said it was going to be mild Did one of your posts on the ecm not say "get the t-shirts and shorts out" thus contradicting your claim that you are only comenting on snow potential. Also, even in this post you have said that inverness will be mild, why, because you see a blob of yellow and think mild and northern rab has repeatedly said that may not be the case in reality... Some of the graphs in the regional thread by lorenzo show it to be far more severe than 70 mph, widely in the 80s if not more

I got a shock when i saw that is in knots!!! so times the figure by 1.15 so that blob of grey just below stirling suggesting 88 knots is actually 101mph? surely not. I see the max on one of the graphs was 90 knots which is 103.5 mph!

Well, it is supported by stratospheric charts, the MetO and i'd be shocked if the ECM ensembles don't show it as an outliner, the UKMO (although only to 144) and the GFS doesn't count. Obviously, it is imaginary as it is only on a computer screen at 10-15 day timeframes as opposed to howling against your windows. I do agree, that we will be going through a mild phase and it could be of longer than a week but in december that is not unusual. What is unusual is to not have that mildness supported by copious amounts of rain

The BOM is fed with similar data to the UKMO is it not? with lower resolution... so therefore that is what the UKMO would go onto show -flawless logic https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSE8OFyOmexvE_gjU2sp_3Xr4Dfr8_3ErnJ4cl8-HP7kTX19N4a7g