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DAVID SNOW

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Posts posted by DAVID SNOW

    June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    The chance of a notably warm first half of June must be very likely by now.  The CET by the 15th could well get close to 17*C, and at the very least is likely to be above 16.5.  I cannot think of when the last occasion was that we had such a warm first half of June.  If the CET is that high by mid-month the chance of a notably high overall June CET is there; granted there have in the past been second halves of June that were cooler than the first half although this happens less often than the other way round.  Even if the second half of this month does not see a continuation of the warm first half, a final CET finish below the 15s at this point looks very unlikely, and it is already looking like the warmest June since 1976 could well be underway.  After a cool April and May, the chances of getting a third below average month seemed unlikely at least by the last 30 odd years' standards, and after the coolest April / May pair since 1941 we could well be looking at the first significantly above average month of 2021. 

    First half yes i would agree, as for the second half, perhaps not, nothing showing that leads to anything being underway.

    • Like 1

    Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

    What a noisy, almost violent night we had here last night.  The kind of weather I expect in November or even January.  I can’t help worrying that this increased turbulence in the atmosphere is caused by climate change and that, if so, it is only going to get worse in years to come.  I hate to think how bad future winter storms could get if this is what we can now expect in early summer.  Must get my roof repaired before the winter or I might be in trouble....

    This sort of weather does happen sometimes, always has.

    The infamous weather of early June 1944 is a good example.

    • Like 3

    January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    EWP around 75 mm by 06z today and climbing steadily. It was 62 mm after 18 days and looks to have added 10-15 mm on 19th with heavy rains in Wales and northern England, blended with lesser amounts further southeast. The GFS 10-day projections (from 06z) appear to average 45-50 mm with today's further rainfall a significant part of that, also some at intervals later in the outlook. This average once again is a blend of 100 mm amounts in some parts of Wales and the north, with 30-40 generally for the southeast.

    That takes us almost to the end of January where an active system might continue to inflate the totals for the remaining time (estimate 10-15 mm) ... all told that brings the totals to 115-130 mm. Scoring estimate of 130 mm now looking a bit more likely to fall slightly but not enough to make much if any difference to scoring. 

    Milder solutions tending to win out recently, CET seems headed for a finish in the 3.2 to 3.6 range after corrections. 

    Very wet and rather cool/cold will be the summary of Jan 2021.

    Still difficult to pin down exact final numbers, but my best guess would be just under 4c and 120 mm.

    See how that holds up with 11 days still to go.

    Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    3rd Tues in 2027! no doubt in lockdown still, on the 300th strain of coronavirus, vaccines don't work for most of the 300 different strains, then the 301st strain starts in Australia, extends our lockdown further, and vaccine number 65 won't work

    And just for balance Ian, by then  we will be in the next LIA, So plenty to look forward to!

    Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    It has been one one of the most exciting Decembers in years at day 10.:drunk-emoji:

    Its also been a rather different and interesting start to December for many, some have already had snow, even to low levels in the south!, some freezing fog and temperatures below average.

    Lots of interest in the models going forward, with dare i say it, a chance of a white Christmas.

    • Like 4
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