Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?

jvenge

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,641

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by jvenge

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, igloo said:

    i have to agree that chart does not correspond with this evenings ecm as the uppers  are simply to high for any type of snow from 144h onwards must be a fault somewhere

    Checked the regional and global surface. Looks right.

    Just keep in mind thats accumuated (fallen) over the time period and it doesnt mean it fell as fluffy white snow and at that depth or that it stuck around.

    Thats before we get to looking at precipitation at T144, let alone snow...

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, ShortWaveHell said:

    I’m in neither brigade ! Commenting on its output ! In comparison the ecm 00z showed a Hurricane then the 12z that has disappeared and we are in tropical tundra , true it got there a different way maybe twice , end result was a northerly 

    Getting there a different way is just the same as switching between mild and cold.

    Really dont understand this weird Operational Day 10 obsession.

    Nothing set in stone. Ensembles show that well enough.

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by jvenge

    9 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    The GFS has consistently shown a northerly next week for its past 5 runs ! 

    So? Its got there a different way each time as well. And it runs 4 times a day! Ensembles have been a mess from T144 each run and its control going in different directions.

    Consistency is in the eye of the beerholder. 

    I couldn't care less which verifies, but it does irk me when people turn GFS into a hero on Wednesday and then laugh at it come Friday. While smugly saying ECM is the top model.

    One can predict when these days come. Its the days when the GFS shows what the cold brigade want and then vice versa.

     

     

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, knocker said:

    There is a suggestion doing the rounds that the MOD thread be closed from 2200-0400 to allow the grass to be cut and the pitch rolled. Also public viewing areas to be spruced up and the rubbish generated during the day to be collected and be recycled. Thus a nice fresh start in  the morning from pristine conditions.

    You mean deleting 90% of the posts?

    I confess. I didn't care enough this evening and had a chuckle at the comments before even checking the ECM.

    Apparently GFS is the consistent model, though. Nothing to see here.

     

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by jvenge

    29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    But I haven't said that it's 'no use' BA...just that it is, in some cases, wholly unrepresentative of what's being suggested. Should a run consist of only two distinct clusters (one at, say, -10C; the other at +10C, for example) what does the mean (0C) really tell you about upcoming events?:)

    I'm generally of the opinion that means are useless unless you can see how they were made up. We have posters giving more insights into ECM members than we had in previous years.

    How I personally use the ECM:

    1. Check Operational.

    2. Drink a nice green tea if its the 12z, or a coffee if its the 0z.

    3. Check the ECM Control. 

    4. Check the ECM EPS Means and try to figure out where the Op and Control sit, while trying to then guess what is a majority solution showing.

    The further you go out, the more pointless the means become. This is especially evident on the EPS 46 after day 15. Prior to then, though, you can sometimes figure stuff out from them. 

    I don't think you can forecast from ensembles or means, but you can use them to favour a certain evolution and then if you are lucky, use the operations or controls to forecast, if you really had the desire to even try :-)

    • Like 6

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The 06z Operational is just a slightly different variation of the overall theme. You had ensembles showing it on the 0z and you have ensembles from the 6z showing the 0z operational view. You also have ensembles showing slightly different variations.

    Hype aside, you can't be depressed about the 0z suite and optimistic about the 06z, based on an operational from either....

    In short, nothing changed since the 0z.....and people did tend to overreact to that one.

    • Like 3

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Pattern change!

    Listening to some of the US forecasters and model output it's looking odds-on that a very West based blocking pattern is setting-up!

    Bad news for cold lovers in Europe & UK!

     

    They the same ones that said Europe into the freezer a few days ago? ;-)

     

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM EPS hint that it might be a little (i stress a little) premature to slash ones wrists this morning. Both the control and mean keep the UK below average temperatures for the next few weeks. The control in particular is quite cold after T240 for a few days. Although it has to be said that the signal from the mean looks a little weak after day 10 or so and one suspects there must be more than a few milder options in order for the mean to be so weak.

    EPS 46 from yesterday is getting the UK toasty (and much of Europe) after day 15 or so. Not that I have much faith in that.

     

     

×
×
  • Create New...