jvenge
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Posts posted by jvenge
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1 minute ago, knocker said:
The other day, during a severe bout of cognitive dissonance, the whole of the ecm output was consigned to the bin for not even attempting to give people what they wanted. Today I'm pleased to announce the second coming and it's return to the fold.
Is the GFS welcomed back in yet?
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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
So that is settled I for one have no idea where Liam D has got his information from probably himself. I don’t think this has been the first time he has said some odd things regarding models.
Well, it is partly true, as the link does concede there are some thousands of less aircraft observations. And this has been well known for years. What it shows, though, is that this doesn't really make much different in the grand scheme of things. And, if it does make a difference, they can't really separate it out from general inter run noise.
I personally don't view the 6z and 18x output often, but that's more people I prefer to compare like for like at 0z and 12z. Just to see the time stamp matchups.
So, what Liam said appears to be nonsense, but is it more nonsense than the original tweet he was replying to? That's a tricky one.
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Just now, Daniel* said:
You’re such a bore jvenge hopefully some freezing temps and snow would do you good..
Well. Sometimes I think I'm typing in Romanian on here, with how people seem to be confused by my posts. As the guy above seemed to be agreeing withme by looking at the output, which is kinda what I said people should do.
Also, I just had two weeks where temperatures stayed between -3 and -13. Keep it
I have a beautiful bruise on my hip from the joys of ice.
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4 minutes ago, stewfox said:
Well you could just look out the window I guess
It’s a model discussion thread so if I see
7 Feb 3am
I'm lamp post watching with my friends
You would have been better off quoting and bolding the next few sentences and then merely saying "I agree".
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12 minutes ago, CK1981 said:
I didn’t mention a snow fest at all and nor am I expecting it. I mean, their outlook doesn’t reflect the very cold uppers showing on today’s output, which is what surprised me.
I know they don’t react to one operational run, but the trend to cold has been building over the past 24 / 36 hours on all models, so it did come as a surprise.
Sure, understood, but even the temperatures are likely not as low as some would have you believe.
QuoteUK Outlook for Monday 5 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 14 Feb 2018:
Cloud, rain and snow are likely on Monday across much of the UK, clearing to sunshine and showers, although the southeast may stay largely dry. Outbreaks of rain and snow could then arrive in the north through Tuesday, with sunny spells elsewhere, although it will be cold. Changeable and windy weather will probably come back on Wednesday with rain and snow, before showers return on Thursday. By the following weekend, settled drier weather with lighter winds may become more dominant, accompanied by overnight frost and fog, which may take a long time to clear on some mornings. It will be windy at times, with a chance of snow showers in the east towards the end of the period. Temperatures are likely to stay below average for the time of year.
So, what do we have here?
Temperatures to stay below average for the time of year? Check. ECM shows a few days of temperatures getting above zero for some parts, minus temperatures during the night.
Cloud, Rain and Snow? Check.
Where it is sunny, cold? Check.
That seems to marry up quite well with the ECM output. If warnings are needed to be issues for the front moving in from the west, I'm sure it will be, in good time.
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Just now, CK1981 said:
The Met Office outlook for next week is far from exciting, which surprised me after this morning’s model output!
Because you actually need to look at what the output is showing and not what some netweather members want it to show. Also, the MetOffice don't react to an single operational run.
For example, the ECM this morning, isn't showing the snow fest that some think it was. The snow threat (whatever that means) is actually to the north west and Scotland initially, with parts of Wales and surrounding area joining the part afterwards. Eastern parts and coastal areas see very little. So, what happened was, people saw the uppers, presumed convective snow on offer, then saw the cold on the other side, assumed a meet in the middle scenario. Win win win scenario.
But, while those uppers are showing off the east coast, it wouldn't actually take much of a shift at all for that scenario to change. See, quite balanced, eh? Recognizing what the output is giving now, but freely admitting minor changes could increase those snow chances/totals.
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Just a quick one, but why oh why do people spend so much time trying to guess snowfall from various model runs, when the model runs actually output that info? I mean, why say "Oh, too marginal" "Oh, it is indeed cold enough for snow". When you could actually just look at the output.
And then after you went to look at the output, ask yourself why you bothered so far out anyway.
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4 minutes ago, cobbett said:
So Liam replies
The 06Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are never worth taking much notice of because they include fewer observations in the initialisation than the main 00Z and 12Z runs. As a result, the reliability of the output isn’t particularly good. And, it’s the GFS...
Is that correct ? Seems a sweeping statement to just disregard these runs
It is true. Quite how those fewer observations play out with 6 hour newer data is open to question, though. You can't exactly say the 06z gave a completely different solution to the 0z. Also, the ECM and UKMO runs were showing something similar.
I also really don't think it is worth speculating on precipitation yet. Even a tiny change that you need a magnifying glass to see can have sweeping changes for snow potential.
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3 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:
Keep the faith folks. Its still on the cards !
Begs the question....
Who would actually want one mid feb?
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8 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
Do we start to write off winters soon? every month I look at CET tracker it is above average. Every winter here is the same the last few years rain/ mild/ damp / nothingness no snow - rinse and repeat. I've just been skiing in Austria so have had my snow fix. Depressing catching up with the model discussion . Now looking at about once a week as sod all happening. Roll on summer here in south east at least with global warming we are getting warmer summers.
You must be new here. On Netweather, winters are usually written off each November.
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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
I would ignore that member, he just wants wet and windy all year round, not sure if he winds majority up on purpose, and also that silly imaginary friend
Knocker? Dear me. Although he is no big fan of cold, he is also not a wind and rain seeker either.
I can only guess. But he seems to be the type who likes to enjoy the outdoors in a comfortable setting.
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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:
Here’s a poser then
the GFS for a day or 2 had a Scandi high well before your lagged time - A model doesn’t forget things - so unless it was being progressive by 10 days / 2 weeks then it goes against what your indicating..
so vis a vee at that point the MJO was necessary driving the GFS output-
in terms of GFS being the only data source available for some quite important plots that’s like school kids taking turns picking their football teams & the GFS being the last one picked because it had to be picked- doesn’t make it any good-
I tend not to subscribe to the belief that models at days 13 or so are infallible. Also, i don't worship the MJO. It is a catalyst to change, but not a sure thing.
But you can also achieve a Scandinavian block through a shallow movement from phase 1-4 of the GWO under La Nina conditions. (Tease since end of December in the models). GEFS was also much more bullish in its GWO forecast going phase 4 much quicker than it actually did. Even 5 or so days ago it thought it would happen then, but only managed it the last 24 hours. I personally view GWO forecasts as unreliable even at T24.
Also, ridging or MLB is to be expected in La Nina conditions. Since a HLB comes from that ridging initially, you have a multitude of opportunities for models to get things wrong.
I can't predict the future of how the GWO will move through its phases and we are all more ignorant than a few days ago due to that loss of data, but I personally think we will see at least another easterly tease in days 10-15 shortly and if things continue as recent data suggested, maybe more than a tease.
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32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:Don’t you see though the irony in your post when quoting mine though as all you have done is confirmed what I said - which is in everything you have written & neatly packaged the main centrepiece model / starting point you are using to show that you believe things are on the move is the GFS 00z ensemble mean data...
I appreciate the irony of you appreciating the irony. You literally just celebrated the fact the other data source was pulled and then quoted another message also mentioning the fact the data source was pulled. Thus leaving only GEFS output to post? Erm.
MJO data still available from all models. Not that it was the full picture anyway. GEFS still better than nothing.
People are forgetting lag times. There wasn't going to be a Scandinavian high so quickly. Even if everything goes to plan from today onwards (GEFS showing a phase 4 GWO now, actually in already, not talking forecast), that would be at least 10 days away, probably nearer 15. From today.
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Ah. Fun. The ice claimed me for the first time this winter. Looking forward to next weeks thaw.
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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Very poor EC and EC mean again this morning..as expected the Atlantic not allowing any block to take hold.
Think the chances of an easterly are receeding rapidly now..
I think there is a reasonable shout for something after 14 days or so. A few keep confusing MJO forecasts with the respective days of the regular output and start seeing imaginary things as a result.
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Just now, ICE COLD said:
Hmmm , is he not aloud to speculate ? It is the MOD thread . He was just saying the flow is quite slack of the continent. You would get low mins if that came off . GFS is rubbish at ground temps especially that far out . Anyway this is just speculation ?
Well, it is the model OUTPUT thread. Not the "What the models might show if they didn't show what they did" thread.So why say double digit low temperatures, when the actual chart output is available and says no to that? That setup is not locked in long enough to drive temperatures lower. Even at T312, when it already has almost no chance of verifying, we don't need to start making up temperatures when the output is available for it.
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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Yep for Scandinavia we do have the very cold air make it go for it here but it glances the E/SE of England. Would be very cold isobars aren’t exactly tight packed minus lows in the double figures even in England?..
Hmm. Where you take those charts from actually show T2 temperatures, so not much point to speculate. Even though at T312 it's already a speculation.
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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:
According to this analysis we finally have an observed point (the one before the 'day zero' starred one) within P4 of the GWO phase space.
We even have the GEFS mean visiting P5 for a day, which is a new development but we do need the trend to continue and bring about more than such a short visit in order to start confidently shifting expectations toward HLB scenarios for early Feb. Obviously some caveats here anyway given the uncertain polar vortex behaviour; if it displaced cleanly to Greenland that'd not be very handy unless we could set up a strong enough block near-NE/ENE of us.
GFS 00z capitulates the vortex strength right at the end, a sign that the potential knock-on effects are being picked up on. Much to be resolved over the next 3-5 days...
Worth adding that it has been wrong for the last 5 days about that forecast position into P4. It has repeatedly been keen for a strong move into P4, only to stall in 3. Therefore, sincerely, considering it is consistently wrong at T24, I'm gonna say that forecast is fairly useless.
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GEFS from the 0z continue to play with a ridge in the vicinity of the UK. A few of these go onto heights over Scandinavia in the furthest reaches of FI. Most maintain varying degrees of ridging.
If one felt compelled to look for trends in the ensembles, it would need to be stated that the ridge position appears to be shunting a little further west.
Just a general note, but people shouldn't really be expecting the impacts of an MJO forecast for 7 days away to be seen in model output. You will only notice recent observed impacts from MJO/GWO reflect in the day 10 to 15 range, meaning that if you are looking for influence which in itself is forecast 7 days out, you aren't even going to be seeing that in the furthest reaches of model output. Just something to keep in mind. Differences between models in time under that is just general and usual differences of opinion. There are plenty of other more skilled posters to talk about GWO, though.
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23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 21 Feb 2018:
Early February is likely to bring relatively settled conditions with a good deal of dry weather, relatively light winds and frost and fog expected to form overnight. However spells of wet and windy weather are still likely across the north. Into the middle of February the forecast is looking very uncertain. However, we are most likely to see short spells of wet and windy weather move across the UK, interspersed with colder, brighter and drier interludes. Throughout this period temperatures are expected to average out at close to normal but it will be colder at times during the periods of more settled weather
This sounds like ridging over the UK at times. Sometimes squashed and then rebuilding.
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Swap places. I have ice and snow for the past week and it doesn't look like in a rush to go anywhere. It went above freezing a few times last week, so it melted over then refroze during the night.
I feel like I need to write a will each time I leave my apartment.
Roll on Spring now :-)
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7 minutes ago, Sky Full said:
Or will it.... ?
No.
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Just now, Thunderywintrysnow said:
Yep i know he is a cold ramper and got some wrong some right like most meteorologists will do in there career but to call him a Joke just because teleconnections state otherwise i just don't agree with that one bit.
You do realise Bastardi himself is quoting the exact same modeled teleconnections? Its model output ultimately. Bastardi quotes one aspect of it(MJO), either purposely or, perhaps through his own lack of knowledge about the GWO, he doesn't mention other aspects and what would be needed to overcome La Nina forcing. A few here will attempt to give the different paths that can be taken and will then mention what they see as most likely and the outside chance route.
He ramps, many do. But also keep in mind his money maker is calling it for the US. He is often a bit free and loose with Europe comments.
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17 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
We just CANNOT get sustained northern blocking in the model output, during the winter months any more,thats why only really Scotland are having a cold winter ,because their location is far enough north to benefit from colder maritime polar air than further south.
Further south you need maritime Arctic air or continental polar/artic air to bring cold and snow further snow,because of the shorter sea track
thats the simple explanation,of the differences and still NO sign of blocking setting up in the correct location from ANY model to bring a decent cold spell for all the country.
Liquified nonsense. La Nina. Read. Then read GWO in reference to suppressing La Nina impacts. Such magic...
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GEFS 06z mean anomaly for the next 16 days.