[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

After a week or so of ‘stunning Synoptics’ and ‘very rare Northern Hemisphere’ profiles for cold it falls apart, Again!!!! Laughable. Literally the worst place on our latitude for Winter weather. The worst 

I suppose Ireland could be a little worse?  

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

GEFS Mean into New Year starts to play with ridging over the UK and Europe. 

The GFS Op gives a particularly unpleasant example of this with ridging all over Europe and low after low going through the UK out into the unreliable. 

 

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

GEFS mean weakens the signal as well. Worth reiterating the the GEFS mean wasn't close to the Op runs all of yesterday. 

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

GEF Op loses the snow it was showing for the 26th onwards for England. 

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

ECM 12Z Op is still not going along with the GFS Op regarding the snow prospects for the period 25th to 27th.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

4 minutes ago, NeilN said:

I'm always dubious of TV weather broadcasts, but where is this mild weather come from? Is this official or just them using some dodgy model? 

I know living down here in the South West we're out the running, but there's got to be a good chance the Midlands has a shot. 

It depends which model runs and which models are looked at. As an example....

But the mild air is not outlandish for your general area, as you can see.

 

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

2 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Some people need a day or two cool off in the other thread.

Where are all the decent posters from days gone by?

I know the Model thread has always been a bit trying during Winter in the past, but it seems hyper annoying this year!

Most are still there, but they get drowned out. I suggest you make use of the ignore list, as it is much easier to read the thread. I personally like to read what BlueArmy and CreweCold have to say, because although they want a certain outcome, they don't overstate the chances of it.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

Do you guys think the models still have time to allow for the colder air to spread to the south-west quicker? 

For what time period? I think if there is snow to be had it is most likely to come  late evening on the 25th until the 27th. It's not just looking at precipitation but also what looks to be rain and snow and then trying to figure out even if you get falling snow if it will settle. Just to add though, the GFS Op is amongst the most optimistic snow potential model runs on display. In reality I don't think the model means are too far apart for that festive period.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

I think the GFS has been at the Christmas sherry for my location. No, I don't expect that to happen and I won't cry about models being crap when it doesn't.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

2 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Just when you think you've seen it all, you get weather enthusiasts trying to lecture professional forecasters, honestly, it's the forum that keeps on giving 

in the meantime, anyone know the December CET so far?  

You shouldn't question the wisdom of the model whisperers 

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

Although there is obviously a signal for what the GFS Op shows, the ensemble mean is distinctly not as enthusiastic and generous as the Op. 

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

The delay before a transfer of data begins following an instruction for its transfer.

Thats the best I can do via Google.

Almost, but the latency applies to the transfer as well, not just the delay in beginning transmission, as is usually based upon the quality of connection between the points and also physical distance. That's the networking term anyway. 

I think the person who came up with that gem is probably trying to say that the data was already out of date as it was rolling out and therefore you shouldn't believe the run. Yes, even for netweather in winter that's a very creative one.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just goes to show though even though its mogreps the fact that it changes every run just shows that its not as good as its made out to be!!!

Isn't that the general idea of mogreps? Runs so often and updates the metoffice forecast many times per day? Metoffice forecasts seem to update every two hours and they do indeed change, so I assume that changing output can only be from mogreps, unless someone else knows of something else they use?

But anyway, surely it is a good thing they run so often and can change based on what they see.

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hold the front page. Mean ens surface temp forb the weekend from the 06 ecm

 

ECM Control and ENS favours cold rain for the majority for the period of interest. Although from the mean there is probably a cluster seeing something closer to the much loved GFS Op.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

2 minutes ago, SussexSnowman said:

A mild wet Christmas Day it is.   whilst it was a faint glimmer of something special for the big day, it wouldn't be typically British to not answer the door when the cold comes knocking. If other parts of the UK get some white stuff, enjoy. Still hurts missing out on it back in Feb. The fine margins are unreal. All one can do is hope elements smile down on us for once.  

Mild for my location too  but I suppose there is some interest for the UK from boxing day onwards, but after that people seem to be looking at different time periods, precipitation levels, rain, snow, etc, and trying to big up a consensus that seems to be very wonky and not as good as stated. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Just my opinion but aint liking this run at all!very messy!!and you get that mild wedge that has come out of no where now since the 00z for boxing day!!!over to the 12zs!!

0z vs 6z for the same period.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

They all look good apart from EC det.

Are the apps still using EC det because they are e awful again this morning ,still showing rain up here every day over Xmas.

I guess for you looking at Manchester Airport should give a hint of what the GFS showed this morning.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

Stranger things have happened this year

There are still solutions that provide snow for the Midland for example. However it is complicated and is isn’t just the placement of the boundary between the cold and mild air. Other facts such as weak surface highs will great effect how intense the precipitation is and how quickly it will fizzle away.

Not to mention the difference between quite a lot of rain vs snow. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM poor model?

I suppose he means poor output. Not a preferred outcome.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

Just now, Bald Eagle said:

Well..thats me had enough of reading my computer programme is better than your computer programme. Someone even put they are exhausted ( makes me wonder how we won two world wars) Enjoy your Christmas everyone

Oh I dunno, it is some what of a guilty pleasure. People complimenting the GFS this morning when they were completely trashing it last week. The mental gymnastics at play is quite extraordinary. In small doses it is quite funny, but it kinda does ruin the thread.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM needs to be a tad colder. 0c isotherm for the 850s is too far N for the majority of England on 25th and into the 26th

Yep - ECM is giving rain for the period where GFS shows snow. 

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

33 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I mean, that was written just before the new output this morning, I could see a better update this afternoon if things stay as they are! Let’s see what Marco and Matt say, and see if Met4Cast feels a bit more optimistic this morning

I ignore most people posting in the thread but sometimes (well okay, all the time) its better to just look at the outputs yourself. GFS this morning shows a snow event beginning the very early hours of boxing day. 

But it has very poor support on the ensembles. I'll let the model whisperers guess the rest.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ens goes out to144. Get in there Sidney

 

 

Yes I saw  But I didn't want to cause increased call load to the samaritans. By the way that squirrel has to be getting on a bit...

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Slower advance of cold air??!!or you mean milder air?!if its a slow advance of cold air that means slight downgrade?!anyway judging by the  pressure charts ecm still dont agree with gfs out to 72 hours!!

 

Yes the 06z det is a very very slight downgrade (for cold prospects) vs the 0z up to t90 vs t96 this morning, but it really is very slight. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thank you.  Maybe a little disruption bottom right of the low

6z det only goes to T90 (00z on 24th). But till that time it shows a slower advance of cold air than the 00z this morning, but there isn't much in it.