jvenge
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Posts posted by jvenge
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It is really unfortunate that this thread is turned into yet another pointless climate change thread. Especially since it is guaranteed to just be an endless circle of argument.
Ultimately, as said before, my understanding of a solar minimum is that through stratospheric interactions, it can steer the polar arm of the jet stream away from Western Europe (blocking) and thus allow colder air from the arctic and Russia to penetrate into Europe and sometimes all the way to the British isles. I'd suppose it is a similar behaviour to a text book El Nino interaction (doesn't go to plan more times than not) on the polar arm of the jet, but I haven't really compared the two. It is proposed that during more prolonged minimums in the past that this caused successive colder winters in Europe. But I really don't want to get in to predicting future solar cycles and I would suggest that many people are muddying the waters in here by referencing it.
Just what threshold is needed for this to be more of a dominant feature and how it weighs up against other aspects, I'm not sure, but it would seem through correlation that a cold winter usually does hit Europe during or around a solar minimum (i refer to the minimum of a solar cycle, not any grand minimums and the like). This seems to happen irrespective of the ENSO state being neutral, El Nino or La Nina. I'm really not sure of how these interactions play together and which combinations are more suited or not. Perhaps it would take @Tamara or someone to clarify the specifics
Unclear if this winter is the minimum of the present solar cycle or if it will be for next winter. I suppose that, in part anyway, will be answered by observations until November or so.
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27 minutes ago, JeffC said:
that was the interpretation I was intending when I started the thread, yes. Obviously there are other metrics, like solar flux etc., but as far as I know the one which is most commonly used is sunspot numbers as it can be reasonably well extrapolated back to when sunspots were first counted, so provides a greater dataset than a more modern measurement could do.
I think.
I guess cheeky monkey has a point, then. Sunspot levels low, suggesting a minimum somewhere between 3 months ago and next summer, but would this year be the minimum( unknown for now) or next year? Also, is there a threshold for when it kicks in? How low does it need to go and for how long? For 3 consecutive years to make it in would seem a bit generous
I'm not so well read on the subject, but I'm assuming this is impacting the strat and thus steering the polar arm of the jet stream away from Europe, allowing cold from the Arctic and Russia to cool the continent.
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When we discuss solar minimum, are we referring to sun spots?
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Quite like drizzle myself.
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3 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
My PhD studies are specifically on the topic of Arctic coastal erosion - so finally something I'm sort of an expert in!
Just to be very clear, erosion rates are accelerating across much of the Arctic (not everywhere) and and the majority of this is very much tied in with sea ice loss, ocean warming, increased extreme rainfall events, etc. When you have soil that held together by ice, or large bodies of ice within the soil, it loses cohesion very quickly when the ice melts and can erode at incredible rates (>40m/year in some areas).
As for why it matters, you only have to look at the massive carbon stores within the permafrost to understand why melting and liberating that carbon can have a global influence.
I can go into as much detail as you'd like on this so feel free to ask some questions, but climate change is absolutely affecting erosion rates along Arctic coasts.Attached is an image from field work last year near Tuktoyaktuk. There's a lot of ice in them thar hills!
No, I get it. It's just that it isn't alarming enough, in regards to the initial question
By the way. Are you aware of any proposals to block any straits in the arctic? Since the big ice loss years seemed to coincide with the natural ice arches not forming and thus certain wind patterns blowing ice out of the arctic where it quickly melts.
You would think such an approach is doable, considering the length of most of them.
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Hmm? I quite like sprouts.
It was bang on average for Moldova, which saw day time highs between 28-32 most days. It actually got to average without any overly hot spells or cool spells. Good storms first half of summer.
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17 hours ago, Singularity said:
I'm not so sure - taking away such a large area of atmospheric heat sink seems like a means for accelerating the warming of the global climate, or at least the N. hemisphere climate, even further.
Trouble is, Arctic-rest of hemisphere/world interactions are something the models struggle to resolve due to the heavy dependence on feedback processes. Even a slight error can quickly amplify into a large one, making resolving it more akin to handling the day-to-day weather patterns as opposed to the usual, less sensitive nature of long-term climate prediction.
Without high confidence results, it's hard to persuade governments to take action on that over other major issues.
Also I'm wondering how the exposure of coasts to open ocean that have spent thousands of years shielded by sea ice would not lead to a big increase in coastal erosion? Or are you implying that the impacts on humankind would be negligible? That angle I can get my head around, provided one classifies the small local populations being disrupted as negligible compared to the global population.
Firstly I mentioned ice free in summer, as that seems to be the more near to medium term chance. I don't know where to begin re ice free all year around. Since there is no prospect of that likely in my life time, not worth me speculating now.
Coasts are eroding World wide and have been since the last glacial period. So, trying to point to coastal erosion as an issue is just not alarming enough. No sea rise from it. Also, considering how pot holes behave, there is likely a case for a freeze and thaw doing more damage than a continuous freeze or no freeze. So it would be unclear how that would end up.
Also, extreme ice and cold is generally bad for a local population. So, ultimately, localities being more habitable due to less extreme conditions is only going to be a net positive. Any increase in erosion (no sea rise) is not going to counter the benefits of a more temperate local climate. Not saying its right, as I personally think it is horrible to lose such a habitat, but the aesthetics aside, it would be a net positive.
2 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:Another concern with an ice free Arctic Ocean would be that there would be much warmer air masses in the vicinity of Greenland, potentially adding somewhat to the melt rate of the Greenland ice sheet. Unlike the Arctic Ocean, substantial melting of the Greenland ice sheet would certainly contribute significantly to global sea levels.
Could be, but an equally more likely scenario if to go with yours is that the increase in air moisture would lead to increased precipitation as snow fall/rain, which then freezes and adds to the mass. See the past two years. I understand precipitation to be increasing in Antarctica as well. So, it isn't so simple.
Rightly or wrongly, the Arctic isn't a priority. Not just in words, but in actions.
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5 hours ago, Singularity said:
It's all about the wind and waves now, and bottom-melt which can still - for another 10 days or so - potentially take out the sort of ragged, thin ice we see across the ESS at the moment.
Regarding summer temps, it's true what you say @jvenge; my point regarding the input from the sun was with respect to direct solar input to the ice (once snow has melted); energy is put into that instead of raising temps. This leaves the melting process with nothing from above to stop it from cooling the air temp to near freezing.
What disturbs me most about the way the Arctic is heading is the fact that the time at which the ice is becoming thin and fragmented enough for a highly flexible ice sheet is moving earlier and earlier in the year, increasing the potential impact of the sort of weather that the moisture feedback appears to encourage when paired with increased heat release from the oceans (i.e. windstorms). Another positive feedback in action.
...and now we also have news that the massive movement and some melting of ice along much of the Greenland and Canadian coastlines may well be a manifestation of a deep water heat storage finding its way to the surface as it moves up against the continental landmass. That heat storage having built up as a result of excess open water in the peripheral Arctic ocean, as these areas take in plenty of solar energy even during quite cloudy summers (let alone during sunny ones... but we've yet to really see that variation in action!) and tend to see downwelling (via Ekman pumping, I believe it has been said?).
So much going on, and so little sign of much being done about it. There's just too much else going on in the world, and too much conflict over this, that and the other, for humankind to pool its resources in the ways required.
I guess the issue with the arctic is there is no doomsday scenario as with Greenland or Antarctica. Nobody can really say why an ice free arctic would be bad in summer. Some might try and handwave some tenuous link to coastal erosion, but thats about it.
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5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:
Are we at minimum yet, there seems to be less discussion than prior years.
Need to see the red line at 266k or so before you can say the bottom, but given where it is and the forecast, unlikely to see it go much below tje current level.
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13 hours ago, Singularity said:
My overall impression of the Arctic climate is one of moisture feedbacks restraining the total melt each May-Aug but toward a baseline that’s edging slowly but surely upward.
You see, the additional moisture allows extra cloud formation during all but the most anticyclonic weather patterns, reducing input from the sun to the point that the more dominant input becomes that from a combination of warming, in places increasingly saline seas and transfer of moisture from the at atmosphere via rain or fog. With abundant sunny weather unavailable to hit the increaingly fragmented, hole-riddled ice sheet, we’re left watching the gradually - and not entirely steadily - increasing air and sea temps/salinity (mostly the latter this year) take their toll, slowly, across a great many melting and freezing seasons.
That being said, the right stratospheric events and/or tropical forcing could still in theory force a very sunny June or July within at least one of the next 5 years, even with all the added moisture in the system. Unless the preceding winter(s) has(have) performed a miraculous about-face on recent tendency, I expect that this would most likely lead to a minimum in the range of 1-2 million below 2012’s record.
It is quite true that the damage is being done in winter and then leaving it very vulnerable if the right (or wrong) conditions hit in a summer. But.... if you look at the big melt summers, you can't find a clear temperature link to cause it. As in, even when a lot of melt is under way, the mean 2m temps are at or below normal.
So, that leaves wind patterns, storms and ocean currents I guess.
Water vapour would explain the winter issue and also the slightly cooling summers up there.
Forecast for next week or so would seem to be cold. Probably we have seen the bottom this season.
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15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
ECM ends on an increasingly warm note with the added risk of some rain in the far south possibly thundery?
Stunningly beautiful. I think that should bring some surface temperatures to 20-21 to my part of the World next weekend.
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46 minutes ago, karyo said:
Definitely not! Terrible summer for working and sleeping that was followed by a terribly mild winter.
Picky lot you brits :-D Warm, but not too warm...
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Are the chases still on? :-)
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2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
A weak Nina remains with both 1.2 and 3.4 recording -0.7.
There is warm water under the sub-surface but the MJO has now entered the circle of death so the death of Nina is probably still at least a month away.
For impacts, yes....seems to have a month of life left into it. Current model projections seem to be going towards neutral after that.
For cold weather lovers, a move towards an El Nino for the winter would be preferred. In the mean time, for a good Spring and Summer, the demise of the La Nina should be wished for.
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Oh, this is an interesting one.
The English seem to have a certain reckless attitude when it comes to snow. No idea why. In Moldova, obviously everyone has winter tyres and as such, problems are unlikely to happen. However, if there are yellow or amber warnings, people take notice and modify their plans accordingly. Even with 4x4 equipped with winter tyres, they will avoid traveling at all costs.
The vast majority of people in the UK don't have winter tyres and although they are fantastic and would overcome most issues, they would be wasted for the typical UK winter, except for those living at elevation. However, it is somewhat of a disgrace that emergency services appear to be so ill equipped and there probably should be change there.
In regards to the warnings, not sure. The MetOffice made people aware with yellow, amber and red warnings where appropriate and in advance. If you were planning to travel on an amber warning but only changed your mind when it went to red, you probably need to have a good luck in the mirror in general.
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
We already had the QTR which got put back , then now the next one imploded.
We don’t have weeks to sit around waiting for decent synoptics.
The longer this goes in the more exceptional the synoptics have to be to deliver. There’s only so much cold you can get with the fast increasing solar energy into March.
Now now, Nick. Far be it from me to ramp, but didn't the UK experience its coldest March for some 100 years in 2013? Sure I read that somewhere.
Quite true in one part. The longer time ticks, the more special the event needed.
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15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Exeters LRF producer right now...
To be fair. People are wetting themselves over day 16 to 30 guidance. Ergo, MetO likely going by glosea and maybe in part EPS 46. Checking other shorter range models and their own every so often to make sure its not a million miles away.
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Yes. Sorry, I actually thought my previous message was a banter thread one, but replying to yours would be taking it even more off topic in there :-)
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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I think that if the UKMO isn't correct here, it must surely back down on the 12z. Won't it?
Looking at the verification stats for T144, for the last week or so - either side of the SSW, the UKMO has been right up there ahead of both GFS and ECM - whether this is significant or not, we'll have to wait and see. Stats for 0z and 12z:
Well. I respect the UKMO output and I would rate it above GFS at the range, it is hard to dismiss the GEFS over a single operational.
Not that I have a vested interest either way. Couldn't care less what comes my way. Double digits would be nice. Missing the outdoor cycling.....
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2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:
A heck of a chart here in deep FI, vortex displaced to Siberia. High pressure stretching from Kazakhstan to Greenland.
Quite...
Yet....how did the UK avoid cold air when high pressure was sent up into the arctic like that?
That's quite a feat for T360 hours of output during an SSW when high pressure is around.
Of course, won't happen. Still interesting though.
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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:
All of a sudden the 06z GFS blows up a low NW of the Azores like the EC and GFS did on 00z, this may make a difference to the wave lengths and surface highs downstream
00z vs 06z GFS for 00z Tues 20th Feb
Thinking this run will likely give big heights over the UK and Western Europe that will be stubborn to shift. Let's see though :-)
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GEFS Mean anomaly.
The trend is not your friend this morning, if the GEFS is to be believed. Colder air not making it far enough west and if it did, what does isn't cold enough. Then need to rely on the percentage play being significantly wrong to give a cold easterly.
Disclaimer: I make no claims that the GEFS is close to being correct.
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ECM Control is also not good for those wishing cold. The Mean seems to suggest both the Op and Control likely don't have much support among their own suites.
So, depending which way the wind is blowing (he he he, sorry), you can either decide that means are the way to go, or Operational's have seen the light (sorry again).
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7 minutes ago, knocker said:
I think maybe some get caught in the cross fire
Has anyone ever told you that you are all heart?
That's quite a feat for T360 hours of output during an SSW when high pressure is around.
E.N.S.O. Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
More recent model runs weakening the proposed (current not onset) El Nino. Awaiting BOM next update. I was thinking the last 3 months it would be ENSO neutral or weakish Modoki. I was favouring neutral, but looks like I guessed wrong according to models. All shall be come clear soon, though.
ECMWF and MetO appear to be on the top end of the estimate still. Can change.
Solar fairly weak. Not yet clear if minimum. But low, none the less.
This, of course, leads to unknowns for the second half of Autumn and early winter. I'm no expert, but I'd suggest that the Atlantic should have a weak influence into early winter, but how the ENSO develops the next weeks to influence Autumn is up for grabs.