jvenge
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Posts posted by jvenge
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9 minutes ago, london-snow said:
That’s not far off a pretty tasty chart the placing of the high is crucial imo a tad further nw and we’re in..
Sadly no. At that range, we need to be relying on the GFS being very very wrong (quite possible). It is quite far from a good chart as both the position, shape and angle are all wrong. So it isn't just a positional issue.
As usual, to the ensembles to see when divergence starts.
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At T144 the GFS has cut off the heights slightly quicker and the position changed slightly, but it is still not good for cold for the UK, as colder air will cut under. Doubtful anything fruitful within high resolution. Slight chance for the extreme south east coast.
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Well, erm, snowing here again if its any comfort?
I should keep a ledger of how many times posters say the Op runs lead the way when they show cold, but its the ens that are most important when they don't.
My personal opinion. Good chances of some colder weather the next 30 days. Blocking exceedingly likely at high latitudes. Will that give -12 uppers to the UK and snow fests? No idea, but it would be bad luck not to get somethimg close for at least a few days.
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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Just seen this put up on twitter shows the difference between GFS and ECM for the NAO
Very much a case of GFS v ECM
https://twitter.com/MetmanJames/status/963722508515016707
Not sure why the EPS Mean only going out to the 23rd on yours, but the extended shows a drop of the mean between -2 and -3 in the 7 days after.
Also, the one I use for GEFS puts that differently as well. Attached, since i can post GFS output.
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Maybe my eyes have failed me, but it looks like the ECM Control is showing easterly winds all the way to the north american coast in the unreliable??
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ECM control brings cold to most of Europe, just not to you know where.
Mean appears to suggest those favouring an easterly winning out, but big question marks over the potency if they did. Has to be a fairly large cluster keeping heights over the UK and not reaching further desired to get that mean.
Fun and games to be had yet.
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The 12z GEFS isn't much different from the 0z and 6z runs. Of course, I'm not looking at just Op runs as the cool kids do.
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21 minutes ago, Seasonality said:
The cold air is obviously restricted further east on this run, then again it may just be a mild outlier or a rogue run. Lets see where it goes from here.
No....
As I mentioned in regards to the 6z, there was a huge amount of scatter in what is generally accepted to be the reliable in regards to just how that high pressure is placed.
It won't be an outliner. There will be many of ensembles showing something worse (from a cold lovers point of view in the UK), nirvana options, similar options and even a few mild ones to boot. All kicking off in the T120 or so range to T144, which then snow balls into something much bigger still within 10 days.
To the ensembles when they come out and don't get too caught up on Operation runs, when such huge variation is clearly observable.
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1 minute ago, jules216 said:
Hi jvenge,do you have a link to those ensemble maps by any chance,or is it under paywall?
Paywall.
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Hard to spot the difference between the 0z and 06z mean anomalies.
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5 minutes ago, shaky said:
Good stuff i suppose could bring in cold later but could also bring in cold earlier!lets see where 12z goes!!
Earlier, Later, not at all, less extreme, more extreme. You name it :-)
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Placement of that HP around the UK is so messy on the GEFS 6z. Even at T144 it can go in so many different directions.
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2 minutes ago, jethro said:
See that's what I don't get. I live in the mild SW (albeit in one of the colder bits and on top of a big hill) and we've had days this winter where it's barely got above freezing all day, surely that's just standard winter fare, not epic?
I'm not being picky or saying anyone is wrong here (seriously, it's all just pretty blobs to me) but it's one of the things I find most confusing. There's clearly lots of excitement around and I'd love to join in, but if epic is -2/-3c I'm struggling. Perhaps it's an age thing, cold winter weather is harder to come by these days but being older, my brain says 'that's not cold' because I've lived through more properly cold winters.
A little bit more interesting is how much lower temperatures COULD be if the easterly flow maintains for any amount of time. You are essentially looking at the first few days of hit on the last few frames of the ECM.
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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
If the model output comes off like this mornings runs it will be freezing cold at ground level . Don't listen to @jvenge he is a mild ramper who is in the Ian brown and knocker mild ramping camp ?.
This = very cold uk ?
For your location that would give -2 in the early morning and +2 as a high in early afternoon.
If it very cold to you, so be it, congrats with your very cold temperatures.
Other locations, especially at elevation, may of course see significantly colder conditions.
There is no mystery in how this is derived. For those who don't have meteogram access, check yr.no for ECM output and the excellent meteociel for GFS.
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The ECM Control from this morning keeps the ridge over the UK for longer than the OP and with this you are looking at post T240 for incoming easterly winds. Still -9 to -10 or so when it does come in.
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1 minute ago, jethro said:
Thicko question alert.....all those pretty pink/purple/green/yellow blob charts that to me look pretty, but to you lot look epic, are supposed to make it go very cold here (if it comes off). So why do the same model runs produce min UK temps of -2/-3c over much of the country? Surely that's not epic or am I missing something here?
No, you seem to have quite a solid handle on it.
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25 minutes ago, Buzz said:
From looking at the model output 'discussion' (sorry, 'reaction') thread, it looks like ECM is the current hero of the day because it's showing people what they want to see. Over the past few days it's been trashed and lambasted and now it's apparently the star. The incredibly fickle nature of many posters on this forum never ceases to amaze me.
Not quite sure it is. Although there is a search for cold on that thread, it is actually a precursor to a snow search. There isn't anything on this mornings ECM run to excite those looking for snow. Unless, of course, we play the ever played game of imagining different model output to the one shown, or if we imagine output in frames beyond what is even FI.
Not that I play down the SSW, as it is a significant one, but people really should stick to the output modeled, rather than trying to invent. Less disappointment for all then :-) Also, less garbage for me to sift through ;-)
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Everyone knows an SSW could be promising for those looking for cold and I don't have any particular reason to doubt this one, either. However, can't help thinking the output thread is populated people by seeing things in the output that just isn't there yet. Just usual FI promises. If and when it comes, it won't be on a countdown from T360, but more like between T168 and T240.
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5 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:
Is this perhaps one of the mildest winters on record so far for that part of the world?
Maybe? It depends how narrow you want to be on the criteria. Russia as a whole was quite warm all of December. I say warm, I mean warmer than usual. See attached for the year to date and December.
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4 minutes ago, Nick F said:
The trouble is in MOD many are always concentrating too hard on the demise of a cold spell. Doesn't look like milder air arrives across all areas until Sunday on current GFS and reliable timeframe for the models atm IMO is around t+144. Temperatures in low single digits at best for most this coming week, some spots, mostly with elevation or well inland, perhaps barely above freezing. Some snow potential, though nothing significant.
I did the unusual thing of checking the ECM for mins and max this morning. Quite a range on offer and will probably mean most forecasts will opt with the higher max. Just one runs output, but based on it, surface cold likely lower than most forecasts suggest.
Probably change next run ;-)
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ECM has quite a range between minimum and maximum for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures could still struggle to get above freezing in the south east. Most forecasts will generally choose the maximum temperature. Worth keeping in mind.
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15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Wouldnt trust ECM as far as i could throw it, the number of times its predicted freezes and ended up wrong is ridculous.
I'll be sincere. I don't check UK surface conditions much. I know there were a few ECMs showing day time max of 1c or so though these days. Another showing 10cm of snow for large parts. But this wasn't ever a consensus.
Best of luck. Likely another go at something in another 10 days or so. Until then, not mild. As usually, surprises can suddenly show at T168 or so as well.
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GFS teases with height rises throughout the unreliable. With an amusing switch to the Iceland/Greenland route towards the end.
In the middle of the run, this air chart tells the story. It isn't mild in Europe, but also a lack of frigid air. Leading to conditions I will technically describe as "meh"
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There is a much simpler explanation...
This upcoming spell was ramped. We had people predicting snow amounts no models were. When others pointed this out, they were mobbed.
It was a huge example of hope casting, very loosely based on a few preferred model runs.
My suggestion? Model output is very easy to read and the GFS, for example, gives you surface conditions as well. For ECM, use weather sites like yr.no to put those charts into context. Educate yourselves and stop being sucked in.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
They aren't innocent. Victims I suppose... :-)