[May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

So we could from a notably low minima April mean to a notably low maxima May mean, quite unusual!

Yes quite different to the last cold spring of 2013, where the SSW effects kept us in a similar pattern for most of March and April.

We have had several pattern changes, but aside from the last 3 days of March, all of them have led to average or below average temps. 

[May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

I think mid 10s might still be a bit of a stretch, particularly if the latest output is anything to go by.

Granted the models tend to underplay the max temps by a degree or so, but even allowing for that, there is not really much significant upward movement until the last few days of the month. 

If I'd entered this tournament, I would rather be sat on a guess of 9.5 than 10.5 right at this moment. 

 

 

[May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Were the GFS 12z pattern to verify, the CET would struggle to get very much higher than where it is now. Certainly a few days where there would be downward movement. 

I suspect however, that a few warmer days will creep into the output towards the end of month. Still likely to be a fairly noteworthy cool spring however, certainly by 20th and 21st century standards. 

If the CET does stay suppressed then there is a reasonable chance that the CET for the period Jan-May 2021 will be below the 1961-90 average.

2013 (benefiting from the coldest spring in over 100 years) was the last year that achieved that and managed to keep the run going into August. 

[May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Based on the current output, below average would be a strong favourite, at least as far as the current average goes anyway. 1961-1990 is not so certain.

 

[Winter 2020-21 overview, statistics]

Not spectacular down in the south east, however a week of lying snow in February is better than most winters so I won't complain, particularly as my location isn't generally great for snow in the shadow of the north downs. Some areas not to far from me managed some rather more impressive depths. 

2020-21 will also go down in the south of England as a winter of marginal near misses. Often we got sleet or cold rain when northern areas fared a bit better. 

The period from Christmas to mid-February was the most intriguing period of model watching for a number of years and served to remind us on a number of occasions how unpredictable forecasting snow is in this country and the computer forecasting systems still have quite a long way to go before they can be relied upon completely beyond around 72-96 hours. 

Overall, not bad, best since 2013 (2018 was better if you include March). 

[Beast from the East 2021.Post-mortem.]

A notable cold spell but doesn't rank as one of the classics and I would not rate it as a beast. 

Plenty of snow in some parts of the south east but for my location and anywhere downwind of the North Downs the ppn struggled to maintain any intensity so we were feeding off scraps. That said we had 4 days where snow fell from the sky and my backyard still has a decent covering that looks like it could last up until Sunday, so that would be 7 days of lying snow, which for south east England is reasonable. 

Temperatures were reasonably impressive with most days in the spell around freezing or only just above, which is quite noteworthy.

Taking the winter as a whole and the UK as a whole, I think it has been fairly impressive with significant snow events in December, January and February in different parts of the country, with only a few areas missing out completely. With the models toying with another cold snap at the end of the month, there is a reasonably chance that the winter will be below average overall and more snowy than average, which if you are a cold weather enthusiast, you can't really complain about, even if it did not deliver to you personally. 

The big feature of the winter for me has been model watching - from the remarkable good verification around storm Bella (the best 10 day verification I have ever seen) to the model flip flopping and varied output in the lead up to this cold spell and it's breakdown, it has been an absorbing, exciting and often times frustrating experience, but a rollercoaster all the same. 

 

 

 

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

I bet the massive orangey blob dissipates before it gets to my location in Tunbridge Wells - despite it only be about 5 miles away 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Sheerness looks set for another pasting in 30-40mins - doubt it will progress to far inland

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

moderate accumulating snow now

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Just now, Angus Mcoatup said:

A marked change in the weather for next week, 10c according to BBC app, are they on the same planet???

It does look like turning significant milder, for a short period at least. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

the speed of the streamer and the intensity is helping it get over the downs without too much damage

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

clouding up here after a sunny hour or so

expecting snow soon 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Proper convection looking east from here sliding just offshore, Faversham to Maidstone and Sheerness you are in for a very heavy spell of snow in the next 90 minutes

Hoping this band is a bit south of the last one and might make it down to me - although the north downs will almost certainly kill it.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Definitely a lot of evaporation occurring aloft - only very light snow with greens showing on the radar

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Just now, kate1 said:

Light snow here in Tunbridge Wells - a bit earlier than I was expecting. 

And here - but we are in the same place - very small flakes - seems to be sticking as surfaces are very cold

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Kentieo Weather said:

Bang in the middle of me nothing falling yet got a feeling its going to amount to nothing.

The drier air than of late might mean that quite a bit that is showing on the radar is not making it to the ground - should improve a bit as the moisture comes off the estuary

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Looks like the twig is set up between Sheerness and Herne Bay with a few showers either side. 

Medway will do ok - how much makes it past the north downs and the M20 - remains to be seen - I doubt there will be much, if any by the time it reaches the south coast, but I if there is I would say Portsmouth and areas slightly to the east of that.

All subject to change if the upper level winds change from now. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

at least 5 days with snow falling

probably end up with 7 days of snow laying

Although depths not particularly impressive, I would probably give this spell a solid 5 out of ten. For reference since 2009 I would give

 

Feb 2009 - 9

Jan 2010 - 8

Dec 2010 - 9.5

Jan 2013 - 5.5

Mar 2013 - 9

Feb 2018 - 6.5

I did live in different locations during those periods, so my perception is altered by that fact. Nothing else in between scores more than a 1, so not worth noting, even if I could remember them. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

7 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Not sure if my location will get snow today, not expecting anymore than a dusting of it does snow, really need warmer weather now as this cold snap is going down as a 1/10 for me 

The twig might go slightly west of your location but it wont be far away - if it retains any intensity or even makes it that far. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Looks like today's offerings are gathering some traction out in the estuary - a much more north easterly direction so should me a more mid kent affair. Lets see if it gets as far and over the downs in the next hour or so.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Beautiful starry night here - dewpoints must be really low - andromeda visible to naked eye. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Also a palace fan, used to live half hour walk from the stadium lol.

Way too many stripy Nigel's in here tonight

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Angus Mcoatup said:

According to the GFS models(which I take with a pinch of salt) it’s supposedly going to get milder next week.

I have my doubts on that, because I think that nearly all models try to default back to milder set, whatever information is fed into them.

They’re as about useful as a chocolate fireguard.

There does appear to be reasonable cross model consensus for the cold easing on Sunday. 

There is still a bit of northern blocking around though, so I wouldn't rule out another cold snap between now and the early part of March .

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

32 minutes ago, hernebaylooby said:

Evening my lovelies, how is it looking tomorrow for herne bay and Maidstone? Got to take  drive from the bay to maidstone tomorrow for an appointment they cancelled today because of the road conditions but rescheduled for tomorrow just wondering what my chances are of it still going ahead 

Looks like you might be under the twig with that journey. But all subject to adjustment.

Would check the radar before you travel

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

about half a centimetre overnight - looks like I will be under very light snow or snizzle for the foreseeable future, so not expecting a great deal more today.

Very light snow falling now.