LetItSnow!

Weather-history Each month getting into the 30sF and 78F the maximum? Sounds very cold. Unfortunately we dont have any data in terms of synoptic charts but I imagine a very northerly dominated summer, though being much drier than 1912 and 2012 it may have been “better” than all three. The only data I could find for 1712 was just the C.E.T., no handwritten reports or anything, but it did have a warm June.

Spring growth seems well advanced locally. Many trees are into their early leaf stage with a definite green look coming into life for most trees. Blossom and daffodils are all fading fast. If we get any very warm weather this month then I feel a very early summer look. Wouldn’t be surprised to have full growth by May if these anomalies persist. And yet somehow it still feels like November.

Relativistic Unless there’s some date in May from ages ago that was a missed opportunity type event like September 1988 and June 2019, the earliest is when in the mostly mild and bland summer of 2000 the 20C grazed the southwest coast on June 18th, 2000

This model run seems frighteningly close to our discussion the other day! Perhaps I wasn't entirely on the silly juice (I don't think it'll verify though) @WYorksWeather

A curious quirk in the British weather records is a string of awful summers in 12 ending years. This'll be a long one so you've been warned! The summer of 1812 we have comparitively little data, but records show it was an exceptionally cold summer even for the time with a C.E.T. of 13.8C. It came off of an extremely cold spring and was particularly wet in May and June. 100 years later and there came a summer where "poor" may be an insulting understatement even to the iciest hearted coldie. The "summer" of 1912 is one of the worst summers ever recorded in the UK with an average of 409.7mm of rain in the EWP data series, the WETTEST summer ever recorded. It was also cold with a C.E.T. of 14.3C, with one particular month doing the heavy lifitng, but we'll get there... June 1912 was an exceptionally wet month (duh) and it was rather cool too with a C.E.T. of 13.9. What makes the month notable is the remarkable abundance of thunder. The 15th was the only day of the month where thunder wasn't recorded. The month began cold with snowfall on the Welsh mountains on the 4th. There was plenty of thunderstorms and widespread falls of 25-50mm. The 7th was a very wet day with widespread falls of 50-75mm of rain across the south-east. The 9th was the most destructive day of the month with severe thunderstorms reported in all districts. Over in Ireland the town of Collooney saw 3 inches of hail lay on the ground and parts of the town were swept away. The 15th being the only thunder-free day didn't mean it was free of rain though, further widespread falls of 40mm fell on this day. The 17th was perhaps the wettest day of the month with widespread falls of 25-100mm in the north and parts of Wales with 134.6mm at Copper Mill. The month wasn't without heat as this preceeded a hot spell that lasted about three days with temperatures peaking at 29C in Isleworth (Hounslow) on the 22nd. Only the far north was dry. A large swathe of western England saw anomalies of over 300-375% of the normal rainfall. It was dull everywhere with sunshine anomalies under half in the west and the north, though remarkably it was sunny in the south-east with sunshine anomalies around 110-120%; Greenwich had 123%. How this happened, God knows. July 1912 was a month of two-halves in many ways. The volatile weather took a break in the first half and there was even some very hot weather. It's the least poor month of the summer with a C.E.T. of 16.1C and an EWP of 94.4mm, so only average temperatures and fairly wet still! The first half generally saw high pressure around and dry weather. Whilst June saw rain every day in many places, there was a spell of total dry weather in many areas seeing up to 11 consecutive days without rain (wow). Despite this, it was generally very overcast a lot of the time. The month briefly turned very hot from the 12th to the 17th with the temperature peaking at 33C at multiple London stations on the 12th. There were some tropical nights too with parts of the south having minima as high as 21C on the 16th. The extremely wet and very thundery weather that characterised much of June generally returned for most from the 19th onward. Despite being generally dry many areas saw falls of 25mm on rain on most days. The north-west was particularly wet with between 150-300mm of rain falling between the 23th and 27th alone. Away from eastern and south-eastern coasts where it was dry it was generally very wet despite a dry first-half. Parts of Kent and Yorkshire had under half but much of western England had totals over 200%. It was dull everywhere except the far north, even in places where it was dry; York had 46% rainfall yet 44% sunshine. Forget every sense of what a poor summer month is as you're about to witness the very worst naturally possible without a volcanic winter. August 1912 has a C.E.T. of 12.9 (no typo!) and an EWP of 192.9mm. It is the coldest, wettest and dullest August ever recorded and the most extreme of any month ever being the first (and I think only?) month to ever take three records. You'll be shocked by the stats! The early part of the month saw the only semblance of warmth all month with 23C at Greenwich on the 4th. Only very scattered places in the south even reached 21C all month with many parts in the north and west only reaching 18C; Aberdeen only saw 16C. Widespread severe thunderstorms from the 7th to the 10th. The exceptional rainfall totals of this month are mind boggling. The usually dry Norfolk saw over 250mm in places. Many locations ranging from the south-west to parts of Wales recorded over 300mm with the most extreme examples being around Snowdonia with 635mm. Only the extreme north was dry with around half the normal in lucky Fort William. Sunshine was remarkably low with parts of the south-east having as low as 30%. Glasgow and Eskdalemuir had 10%!!!. By the far the most remarkable event occured late in the month. Trevor Harley writes: On the 26th a deepening depression brough severe weather to East Anglia, resulting in the Great Norfolk Flood. There were 206 mm of rainfall at Brundall, and 186 mm of rain at Norwich, with the rain continuing for 30 hours from the 26th into the 27th. The pressure at Great Yarmouth was 978 mbars. 100 mm of rain was widespread over Norfolk and Suffolk, with a westerly gale. The worst flooding caused by rain in East Anglia on record. Norwich was cut off for two days, with over 40 bridges destroyed, with flooding 15' deep in places. spreading out for 40 miles. Three people drowned, an one particular variety of Norwich canary was lost. Much of the Fens stayed under water through the following winter. 100 years later and 1912's little sibling let it be known that not even climate change would stop the legacy from continuing! The summer of 2012 may not have been as cool (15.27C) but it was every bit as wet with an EWP of 375mm, the 4th wettest summer on record. If not for a less exceptional August it could have easily taken 1912's place as wettest. I don't have to remind most of you how bad the summer of 2012 was as about 99.9% of the people reading this will have experienced it, so I'll be a little less full on with the stats. June 2012 kicked things off with a bang with an EWP of 160.1mm, the WETTEST June ever recorded. It was cool too with a C.E.T. of 13.5C, actually cooler than June 1912. It's also the dullest June on record for the UK as a whole. The month quickly turned unsettled after a hot end to May. The 3rd was the first true day of the summer we'd all come to know with torrential rain and temperatures struggling to exceed 11C north of London; Emley Moor (East Yorkshire) had a high of just 6.3C. Temperatures fell as low as 2C across East Anglia on the 5th. This was followed by an unusually wet and windy spell from the 7th to the 9th; In mid-Wales a major rescue effort was needed after severe flooding caused by prolonged heavy rain. Villages in Ceredigion were cut off with houses and caravan parks being flooded. Gusts of 62 mph. were recorded at Plymouth (Devon) on 7th and of 82 mph. at the Needles (Isle of Wight) in the early hours of 8th. Exceptionally cool and with localised flooding from the 11th to the 15th. After a chilly start on 13th when Santon Downham (Suffolk) dipped to 0.4C many places on the east coast failed to exceed 13C. Briefly dry and fine before further unsettled weather. Still, Northolt managed a tame 23.3C on the 20th with much of the SE around 21C. Foul conditions on the 21st; Heavy rain and high winds momentarily put out the Olympic flame and forced Blackpool's evening celebration indoors as the relay reached its halfway point. A grand outdoor finale had been planned in the seaside town but torrential and wind reaching up to 50mph curtailed the day's events. A trip to the top of Blackpool Tower was cancelled and, with the tower in sight, the flame went out as the squall worsened in the early evening. The month then briefly turned warmer but not without the summer's most infamous and iconic weather event, the supercell storms on the 28th. They've been well documented elsewhere on this site so go search! Leicestershire Tornadic Supercell Storms of 28th June 2012 | hinckleyweather's Blog HINCKLEYWEATHERBLOG.WORDPRESS.COM Every so often a weather event occurs that is so extreme and so sudden, that it can’t possibly be forecast or expected to happen in any particular location. The 28th of June 2012 was such an occasion when Hinckley... Still, the only warm weather of the month however brief was reached with 28.6C at Swanscombe (Kent) as the south-east missed the storms entirely. July 2012 was a cool and wet month, both cooler and wetter than July 1912 with a C.E.T. of 15.6 and an EWP of 120.4mm. The month was saved by a warm and sunny final week. Low pressure controlled the weather throughout the early period of the month with bands of rain giving way to sunny spells and heavy, thundery showers which were slow-moving at times. Some exceptional rainfall totals were recorded during this period. A month's worth of rain fell across Devon county over 24 hours on the 8th, with Yealmpton, Modbury and Ottery St Mary being among the worst areas hit. The council said initial estimates had revealed the clear-up costs would be more than £1m and the repair bill to Devon's highway network more than £3m. According to the Environment Agency, up to 90mm of rain fell in parts of south Devon and up to 120mm in parts of east Devon. It remained very cool, showery and with some further severe thunderstorms during the middle of the month. The first true fine spell of the summer for most from the 21st to the 26th with temperatures widely in the mid twenties, peaking at 30.7C at St. James's Park in London on the 25th. This broke by month's end with some severe thunderstorms on the 29th (One of the meanest looking clouds I've ever seen!). August 2012 was the warmest month of the summer and of any of the summer months discussed, with a C.E.T. of 16.7C and it has an EWP of 94.2mm; wet but not exceptionally so - and actually dry in the south-east. It was dull with around 86% of the average sunshine. An unsettled start with further thunderstorms. Slow-moving thundery downpours on the 5th caused localised flooding of properties and travel disruption invarious parts of England, Wales and Scotland. Worst hit were Pembrokeshire, Cheshire, Devon, Tyneside andthe Scottish Borders. Heavy showers led to further flooding in Tyneside on the 6th. Hotter around the middle section of the month with high pressure building bringing fine and dry weather for a time. Unsettled mid-month with thunderstorms but then turning hot with 32.4C on the 18th at Cavendish (Suffolk) the hottest temperature of the year (and actually lower than the max in 1912). Flooding in Northampton on the 15th with the Grovesner Shopping Centre being closed for flood damages. Minimum temperatures into the 18th remained above 19-20C in parts of East Anglia and SE England. The heat cleared but the summer wasn't without further unsettled weather and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms broke out on the 25th (Rainfall so heavy it almost flooded the shops at Lakeside I was in with my parents at the time!). Parts of Cumbria were hit by flash flooding after a night of heavy rain on the 30th. 40mm of rain fell in less than three hours, affecting areas including Sandwith, Egremont, St. Bees, Beckermet, Gosforth, Ravenglass and Seascale. A train carrying workers to the Sellafield nuclear plant derailed when it struck a landslide south of St Bees, near Nethertown, at about 0620 GMT. The passengers were rescued and put on a replacement train, but it was forced to stop because of another landslide. Torrential downpours in the Isle of Man led to the closure of a number of the island's roads. An unusually cold end to August with several places reporting their lowest-ever August temperature, including Aviemore -1.8C, Benson 2.1C and Bradford 2.8C. For those reading whom are immortal, perhaps book your holidays abroad in the summer of 2112.

WYorksWeather It's whether we end up shifting the HC far north enough to have a persistent influence. Indeed I can imagine summer rainfall overall not changing much due to those hot, dry summers being alongside very wet, humid and poor summers.

raz.org.rain I think it's a case of the specific type of eruption. Many cause cooling due to the reflection of sunlight back into the atmosphere, but some increase the temperature I think due to water droplets or something. I'm not a scientist as you can see. The latter may be giving some extra oomph to the warmth across the world right now. Part of why I think 2025 and 2026 may be a temporary pause as the effects of that fade out a little and other factors too (Famous last words). In his case though he meant the traditionally understood eruption.

Summer8906 Yes, you can add September 2000-April 2001 to that. I mistakenly miscalculated the January average (The all time average is only 82mm and January 2001 was 84.4mm so it technically counts). We've beat 1960-1961 and 2000-2001, pretty exceptional! Unless I missed some, I couldn't see any that lasted more than 6-8 months.

Summer8906 I do think I'll live to see the first 1300mm EWP year on record. I'll probably live to see the first 12, maybe even 13C year in the C.E.T. Also speaking of those extremes, 1852 was quite like 2020 because the spring was very dry; March and April only averaged 17mm and 20mm! May was near normal though. Yet the year averaged 1,213mm and had a 202mm November! Imagine if 2024 pulled a 200mm month out the hat. We haven't had one in 121 years. If any year was gonna do it... I went through the entire data set and I cannot find anything longer than the 13 month period from January 1872 through to January 1873. The time length I could find closest to where we're at right now was 8 months, the exceptionally wet period from July 1960 to February 1961 as well as the infamous September 2000-April 2001 period. We've surpassed those though as we're onto month number 9. To break the (I'm assuming) record, we'd need to keep above normal precipitation until August 2024 and make it 14 months. The all time averages for April through July are: April: 58mm May: 64mm June: 67mm July: 79mm August: 83mm We wouldn't need a washout neccesarily to make it. With that the case, it would be fascinating to see if we break it, though knowing the chances we'd probably get a dry May scupper the chances. Not sure many would be sad about a dry month though! I kinda would like to see it be broken at this point as, as stated, we wouldn't need an absolute washout to do it.

Summer8906 I'm also scrolling through the data, though just the EWP data for now. One thing I've realised from looking at the data is that, a lot of people have spoken about wet years in recent times having unusually dry months within them (see February 2023 for example) and how it's a sign of ever growing erratic rainfall, but historically it seems that a lot of these exceptionally wet years through times have been interspersed with very dry months here and there (further adding to the perhaps unprecedented run we're in now), so I don't think it's a new thing for us to see those rapid shifts within wet years.

CryoraptorA303 Perhaps a thread deep diving the summers of the 1960s would be interesting. I get a kick out of rummaging through data like no one else so I'd love to do it, just if anyone else would read it. You're right to suggest that they weren't always bad. Some truly were (1965 is a good example and just a plain odd year) but some were cool but weren't always low pressure dominated. Relates back to what I was talking about with Summer8906 how older summers had less forcing due to a weaker Hadley Cell so polar maritime air was more frequent which while cool, can be quite bright in the summertime. Also convective. It wouldn't surprise me if some of those 1960s beat recent summers for sunshine.

Summer8906 It would be the ultimate British irony if the Hadley Cell rose far enough to all but kill our winters but also grot up our summers as well. Instead of a future of 1995s, just a sea of warmer 1974s...

CryoraptorA303 How lovely those 1960s summers must have been… Some didn’t exceeed 25C! What a different world we live in now. Makes you wonder what the theoretical lowest possible maximum could be for a summer, in keeping with the original theme of the thread. Im loving the open discussion here though.

Summer8906 August 2023 really was so non-descript honestly. The month didn't reach 30C locally (neither did July!). It began cold and wet and ended cool, but the middle section had a lot of vaguely warm but unsettled patterns that meant a lot of days in the low to mid-20s. It honestly did feel a bit retro, like how in the old days you've have south-easterly but only get the temperature in the mid/upper 20s. We very much escaped the hot weather that month. Sort of was a very typical 21st century changeable August.

CryoraptorA303 I sort of feel like 1990 was the first version of our sort of typical late 2010s/2020s summer in a way; one poor month, one mixed month that ends up with a very hot spell and then one month with a serious heatwave. Indeed, I've seen people discuss summer 1990 very similarly to summer 2019; no one can seem to make up their mind if it was good or mixed!

Derecho All conjecture from me at this point but I wouldn't be surprised to see high pressure nose in from the south (See my latest Model Output blabber if interested). I wonder if this April may pan out like a warmer version of April 1987; very warm but not overly dry due to an unsettled start. I honestly would not be ruling out a 11+C CET this April already, though a northerly dominated second half could put a quick death to this idea. April 1995 is a good example of a very warm April turning into a mild April due to a cold second-half. Wouldn't want to bet on that at this time though.

The GFS 12z sees a different, though not inconceivable route to high pressure. With such a wad of unusually warm air over Europe for April and a return of the warm SST anomalies around the Azores, it's entirely possible this could promote a ridge of high pressure to develop into a more substatial feature. Day 10 shows the first 20C appearing on the temperature projection map in the London area. I think if we do see high pressure develop from our south it would easily get us into the range of 19-23C providing there is ample clear sky. The sun is getting stronger very quickly and the continent is warm. All very un-April like patterns though, it has to be said. Indeed, the charts look very similar to late January and much of February when persistent high pressure to our south kept us bathed in south-westerly winds. At times (late January) it ridged high enough to bring in inversion cold in the extreme south-east; this time though it's April and that increase in pressure would bring our first proper warm spell of the year. Not from a Scandinavian high like usual though. Indeed, without steering the conversation elsewhere it's got a very "new normal" look to it, though for now it would probably be very welcomed by almost the entire UK... you might even convince me into it! The devil is in the detail though and the previous run had cool N/NW winds for the same date so it is not a guarantee at this time, but a possibility, and as explained, probably not an unlikely possibility with such a loaded atmosphere. Don't send me hateful messages if low pressure is still dominating on the 12th!

Summer8906 I perhaps wonder if this is a symptom of the rising Hadley Cell. Poor summer months in times gone by were usually very cool but weren't always remarked as extremely dull. Due to weaker heights to our south, low pressure often had an easier time pushing straight through or even becoming a cut off low (July 1987) that wandered around for days. That happened a lot, yes, but I suppose it did allow for more PM air which at times was more showery. It could also explain somewhat our less thundery summers as if you look at the reports from the very poorest summers, they often had very severe thunderstorms which made them very interesting. Summers like 1980, 1985, 1987 etc all had severe thundery spells and not always from plumes. I think the more southerly track lead to "different" types of unsettled conditions and also N Atlantic ridges which brought cool but dry spells of weather which are almost non-existent now. Instead nowadays, with high pressure becoming semi-permanently fixed over Iberia, the areas of low pressure become stuck and often have a TM airmass associated with them, which brings unexceptional days but very mild nights and a whole lot of cloud and oddly, perhaps less thunder. It also means those cool ridges become harder to maintain because the forcing is coming from the south with these heat pulses wafting up. Short version: Pre-1990s could often be cool, dull and wet, but could have different types of "poor" conditions which were usually brighter and also more convective, but now we have more humid, boring south-westerly conditions due to a semi-permanent southerly quadrant to our summer winds. Just a thought. It's basically what's happeend to our winters so why not our summers too. If this needs to be moved elsewhere, .

My memories of each August and then my ranking of them... August 2010 I remember very little of except vividly the 3rd and the 4th. The 3rd I had a day out and took the Woolwich Ferry. The weather was mostly cloudy and I remember the skyline to the north-west being very black. The 4th actually brought a thunderstorm back home and interestingly it came from a weather front pulling down cool, northwesterly winds. Proof you don't need hot weather for thunderstorms. August 2011 I literally remember nothing about, but considering my aversion to hot and humid weather, it sounds like a month I'd appreciate. August 2012 I remember much better! I remember some severe storms early in the month, one that my dad took a video of on a cr** Blackberry; I think that was the 5th. I remember a fine and very warm spell from the 8th to the 11th with crystal blue skies. The 11th we took a day out to the Kent coast and the weather was optimum. There was a severe thunderstorm back home on the 13th which must have been the breakdown of it and the charts show this to be true with a trough pulled out west and slack S/SW winds. The rest of the month is a blur but I remember some bright but cool weather at the end of the month. August 2013 I remember a similar amount. I do vaguely remember the 1st being very hot but I much better remember the 2nd and 5th having severe thunderstorms. The rest of the month is patchy but I went on a trip to the Kent coast again around some point mid-month and it was similar weather to a year earlier. I have pictures of this day and despite the extended summer the grass was green, no heat stress. Must have been very thundery in the Folkestone area to replenish ground water levels. August 2014 I distinctly remember just feeling very autumnal with a total lack of summery conditions. I don't remember any standout conditions but rather just constantly a very October-y feel. August 2015 was variable but from memory, cool and wet overall. We had a very wet day with torrential thundery rain over Kent on the 13th. The 22nd was the only summery day of the month from memory. The end of the month was exceptionally cool with heavy rain and NE winds locally that brought in a very autumnal feel and ushered in that chilly September. August 2016 was mostly non-descript apart from being very dry. After some weak showers on the 4th I'm pretty sure it never rained again that month. I do remember the final ten days being very warm/hot. August 2017 may take the cake as the "poorest" though that may be my memory of it being stronger because I was 16 by this point. The month rained constantly and, as I've spoken about many times, was unusually thundery at times. There was very little sunshine from memory, just lots of very cool, Atlantic dominated weather. The hottest temperature all month was only about 29C for a couple days and then it turned very cool again. Very, very autumnal. August 2018 was a month of two-halves; it was very hot for about the first week, then it ushered in my most thundery period I can ever recall with heavy showers and severe thunderstorms every day from the 7th to the 12th (and almost the 13th too). The summer gave up after that and the second-half was quite non-descript and actually ended up very cool at month's end IIRC. August 2019 I spent in Kent until the 12th, then Cumbria for the rest of the month. In Kent it was unusual because those first 12 days were mostly very unsettled, Atlantic dominated and unsettled but with a south-westerly element so it was unsettled but warm. I remember the 2nd was bizarre as it was very windy but warm. The temperature cooled off a bit after that. In Cumbria the rest of the month was totally unsettled bar a short lived warm and sunny spell for a couple days which oddly I forget when was, but may have been around the 21st. It was very wet and cloudy. The 18th saw locally severe thunderstorms which caused flash flooding. To rank them is a bit hard because, as someone who hates hot weather and likes cool summer months, my ranking will be a LOT different to many. But many of these Augusts were all unsettled and even the warmer ones were never really ones to write home about like August 2020 or August 2022. 1. August 2018 2. August 2017 3. August 2015 4. August 2014 5. August 2010 6. August 2011 7. August 2016 8. August 2012 9. August 2013 10. August 2019 August 2018 being #1 may surprise you but it takes the cake for the sheer off the scale convective activity in NW Kent at the time, plus the variability made it interesting to me. August 2011 is ranked there because I just remember nothing about the month at all. August 2019 was far too humid and also personally my life wasn't going great at the time so it also gets that taken off of it I suppose.

danm 10th warmest March for the CET after the 2nd warmest February. The blowtorch goes on. The 1991-2020 average hides how exceptionally mild it was. Probably because March is one of the earliest months to rapidly warm up in the late 1980s onward.

Considering the warmest 12 month period is 11.6 and that was set back in 2006/2007, with extra warming in the atmosphere it is no longer inconceivable that a 12C CET year is possible. For interests sake only, I averaged the record warmest CET months for each month of the year and added about about half a degree to the old records (that’s being modest perhaps) and it gave an annual CET of 13.58! It would take an absolute unprecedented extreme to see this and I don’t think we will record that any time soon, but in a high emissions scenario it may not be out of the question for that to occur in like 2100 or 2150 or something.

Chilling things down a bit, I did the inverse of my hottest ever month theory and decided to try and create the coldest possible month ever. Same logic; I took three different Januaries with extreme cold spells (1841, 1881 and 1895) and modified the numbers ever so slightly in order to make sense for the surface conditions (same as I did for residual heat in July XXXX). The result was a January with a C.E.T. of exactly -5.0!

BruenSryan I certainly remember them as wet months! If March 2018 hadn't seen two snowy episodes, it would have been excessively dull and wet. I vividly remember March 30th, 2018 being absolutely horrible; dark skies and heavy rain all day with rain covering much of the country, stuck and unable to move. Came in a spell of almost zero sunshine between about March 22nd to around April 10th-ish. People remember April 2018 for the heatwave but forget the incessant cloud and held back daytime maxima in the first half and also the exceptionally unsettled end with an area of low pressure stuck in the North Sea (IIRC) and heavy rain and strong winds battering all day on the 29th. I remember that at one point people were wondering if it was going to be cold enough for snow but it wasn't in the end.

damianslaw Would be quite unlucky to get two dud years in a row. Say what you want about the 2010s but even amongst the dross, each year seemed to provide a mixed bag and pleasant conditions that were more than a month and there was variability. Sort of makes you realise how dire things are that you are nostalgic for the 2010s climatically! I remember us thinking how **** it was...

Upon thought, perhaps I am jumping the gun a little, but still - if low pressure wasn't so strong at the moment there is the possibility we could have tapped into it further and got some very warm temperatures out of it, mid/upper 20s perhaps, but as you stated, very unexceptional temperatures at the surface and a one day wonder. Indeed I imagine a lot of daytime temperatures for the first week of April will be unexceptional, just very mild by night. I have to wonder if the rising Hadley cell is playing a part in this weather pattern at the moment. Global drivers that have been similar to 1998 may be playing out but with high pressure to our south, instead of easily barrelling southward and introducing colder northerlies, the lows are further north and basically slamming against a European high. Not to say the former pattern isn't possible (May 2023 had weak pressure to our south a lot at times), but perhaps it's an example of an old weather pattern spun with a new AGW twist. Or it could be that April 2024 would have always had this exact weather pattern but that it's amplified to be extra warm aloft and that without AGW it would be 3-10C uppers but instead its 10-18C uppers now.