Flash bang flash bang etc

Probably my wording sorry, point simply being that CW haven’t ‘got it right’ in terms of where the storms actually occurred the last few times. I don’t know what ‘getting the storm risk right’ means... surely a forecast is just a forecast? Evidence is good that tomo will have some activity somewhere, but they keep chopping and changing our area so I’m waiting until tomorrow morning to decide whether to head out during the day and chase. Would be amazing to see two storms in one day if the evening risk comes off in the SE

Don’t like to contradict anyone but CW has predicted about 7 days of storms which didn’t materialise in the last month or so. Not to say they were wrong - but don’t take it as gospel these storms will do as they like!

Hmmm methinks it’s another case of a long build up to a non-event with lots of teasing along the way. Too many times the high pressure is just too dominant and there isn’t enough surface warming once the morning cloud (and potential fog?!) clears. Will keep an eye toward wales and the west just in case but it’s looking like it’s all being downgraded to nothing. First disappointing plume setup of the year? ...Perhaps! But wait! My eye is drawn to the overnight potential in the SE regions which looks more possible given the synoptics currently being offered. We will see tomorrow! The wait continues...

I’ve been expecting evening storms in our area on Saturday for the last few days. As regards the earlier risk in the West - I might consider having a little chase during the day and then returning home for the chance of a night light show there... Definately an exciting period of weather over the next few days, fingers crossed and eyes peeled!

Cheers ben! No offence to other forecasters who are also awesome - but if all storm predictions could be more like this it would be a perfect world ?

There are specific criteria for this (pls read on): I remember when I was young (about 100 years ago) we had a storm in Surrey that started just as it was getting light. Being summer that was proabably at about 4:30 / 5:00 am... Thing is I’ve been struggling to think of a storm since then that’s occurred during that time - at least down our way. I guess my question is whether this is because of our location in the central south where most of our nocturnal storm opportunities are as a result of diurnally-driven European storm systems crossing the channel during a plume event - which tend to initiate between nightfall and just after midnight. I would imagine therefore that a morning storm in the U.K. is far more likely in the north... but perhaps I could be reading too much into this! So, anyone know of significant storms which initiated between 4 - 7am?

This would be excellent

Is it too early to have a vague guess at where might be best? I have 4 days off over the weekend and we were thinking of staying somewhere

Hmmmm - capping is the enemy :-/

Yeah it was the frustratingly slow progress of that front from France which did it for me - literally touched land as the sun went down. Arg! oh well - onto a new week - with hopefully better chances for all!

That cell to the south of IOW is looking good on satellite. Also looks like things getting going to the east of it too.

Felt a little humid tho. And I thought it was only because of the the low SSTs over the channel which were taking the oomph out of the French storms? It’s early in the season anyway - but would be nice to hit the ground running one year instead of this persistent teasing from the weather gods

Thing that frustrates me (again) is that the areas around the M4 that are now seeing some showers breaking out haven’t had the hours of solar heating we just had (sat24 showed general cloud cover this afternoon) and yet THEY get the convection. We have a showery front moving in from the south where it’s been shown to have convective potential, but - yet again - some baffling science dictates that we get nothing, and as usual it all stalls and peters out (like it’s doing right now). There is ALWAYS a reason we don’t get the goods - which in this case isn’t anything special - but it’s a good example of the trend that I imagine (like previous years) is gonna blight our storm chances time and time again during the coming summer. i just know it and it’s already bothering me. I don’t need excuses for the weather misbehaving - it’s not like we get hundreds of thousands of chances. It’s not like we live in Arkansas! (On the plus side - it’s been a lovely afternoon) ...Anyway, no rain yet.

Surely that stuff from France and in the channel will get chance to interact with the surface warming as it hits land? We’ve had about 5hrs unbroken sunshine here

I’ve got towering cumulus to the north and east, then that precip moving us from the SSE, and yet it’s a beautiful sunny day right now where we are (which is in a pub). Hoping for a nice little storm sometime this evening - a few flashes will do me fine

Almost cloudless here yet that finger of heavy rain is bearing down on us like a moth toward an IOT lighting festival

They are petering-out as they pass into the channel. I imagine this’ll temper them somewhat but I’m hoping for a degree of re-ignition when they get here...

h

Sparks in the channel! ️

Any reason to ignore those storms on the French coast? Only a bit of sea stopping them... ?

Evening sky looks quite pre-storm tonight. Shame we have nothing forecast

Makes such a difference with the sound - pretty awesome cam! Bookmarking it ?

Cheers, i’ll take a look ... My eyes are on France and Germany at the mo - big storm in the east - I might have a little look for cams shortly.

Why do all European webcams always end up facing away from the direction of storms?

Still learning a lot about this side of things - but do elevated storms carry their energy from earlier surface heating elsewhere then? Thanks for the info tho - good to hear we still have a small chance of something ?