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Everything posted by Woollymummy
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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
Woollymummy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This would be really warm and springlike weather, am I right? compared to this coming week.....I am joking really, but am not sure if this is what is meant by the breakdown, surely it is just another version of cold and wintery? and is this too far in the future for it to be likely? -
South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
Woollymummy replied to Nick L's topic in Regional
Snowing in Oxford again (Botley) -yay! No thermometer here but basically too cold to use my mobile waiting for a bus.... -
South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
Woollymummy replied to Nick L's topic in Regional
Sleety hail (Boar's Hill), because I left two loads of washing out on purpose, he he! Off to a late meeting at work now, I want to see white bits in the garden when I get back tonight :-) -
South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
Woollymummy replied to Nick L's topic in Regional
I want an earthquake now, even more than I want snow. Or better still, to be watching out the window at my nearest lamp-post as the snow pours down, only to see it shake a little bit from an earthquake. I felt one in Oxford in 2002, and it was so weird, very slow undulation of the floor in the middle of the night! -
Quote from the TIL -OPI site: "Specifically over Europe, our OPI evolution and October pattern analysis, suggest that the first cold anti-zonal period should arrive with good probability in early winter, followed by the onset of a stronger Polar Jet over the North Atlantic and a milder but more unsettled period. This period with higher zonality should be interrupted by a new increasing of the wave activity over the North Atlantic, with a renewed colder pattern; differently from the first period, this second colder period could be characterized by a lower anti-zonality, with higher probabilities for arctic air masses to reach lower latitudes." ........are we nearly on that bit yet? see the page:https://app.til.it/opi/
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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
Woollymummy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It actually did look quite promising a couple of weeks ago but some of us didn't say anything back then as it would have been shouted down as being far too far in the future to happen. It is not unusual for February to be cold and snowy! This is what I hope will happen! -
Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
Woollymummy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just a little question and please forgive/be tolerant if it is obvious, but if we get a northerly wind in a week's time, is it going to be surface air coming towards us from e.g. Kiruna or somewhere northern, in which case can we get an idea of what temperature it will be for us by looking at their current weather outlook? or would our air in a week's time be coming from the high atmosphere above Kiruna etc? In which case, where would their surface air end up? -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
Woollymummy replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I emailed the office, the outreach officer Marcia said it would be up on their website soon.- 1,521 replies
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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze
Woollymummy replied to BornFromTheVoid's topic in Climate Change
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/old-ice-arctic-vanishingly-rare just found this, shocking! -
rest assured, when it snows here, it is great; Oxfordshire had amazing snow two years ago, and almost every year before that since we have been here, although I probably blanked the years that it didn't from my memory. Old golf course at the top of Boar's Hill is the sledging place to be if it ever happens.....
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Boar's Hill, Oxon. Having had gorgeous frost this morning and sunshine today, and now a disappointing warm non-snow event, I think I would rather skip the snow and just have dry, cold and sunny weather from now until spring. The sledges can go back to accumulating leaves in the garden like they used to.
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I would hope this forum would keep going even if the models improve!A question about the forecast for US weather, it seems to be changing in the next week to have less extremes of temperature across the continent; will that mean a slow-down of the Jetstream? Every time they have a great big freeze we end up with westerlies and gales, so can we maybe hope that if there is a US warm-up soon, we may get a chance at some Arctic air?
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I am interested in the possibility that this pattern we are in at the moment is round 1 in a little test of winter which has so far chilled the north of UK quite well, but has not completely changed the South into a "snowfield" (although we did catch a snow shower this morning). What is the likelihood that the European continent and Scandinavia have not yet chilled themselves enough to cool us down in the event that the winds start to allow airflow from the East, and that what may be happening is a chill, followed by a warming, then followed by a freeze at the end of the month/beginning of April? Is it possible that although the minute details of what might or might not happen on an hourly/daily basis is difficult to pinpoint, the general trend is already appearing and that whatever is happening a few ridges round the globe to our West is going to bring us a more intensely cold spell in a couple of weeks?
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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards
Woollymummy replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In the mean time, here is some light after-dinner reading material from the netweather library, in case you are new to these things, like me!: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/ -
Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards
Woollymummy replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
Woollymummy replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That is beautiful. And so much easier to understand in 3D. Thankyou!- 1,521 replies