mhielte

Just be aware that AROME was the model going for a more substantial fall across northern and central inland areas of England overnight last night, but the UKV was far closer to reality with the odd flurry. Not saying the AROME will definitely be wrong, as it is a very good hi-res model, more than it might currently be overestimating precipitation amounts from the current setup.

A pattern change suggests something then locked in for a while. Even if our cold breaks down, there seems little evidence to suggest any return to average (as the model agreement isn't actually for mild, more just 'average') would be anything more than a blip. Post day seven, it continues to be rather uncertain. Also, any reason why you're calling the next 8 days as snowless?

A lot of assumption there in one post. Let's not get hasty and instead evaluate after the event, rather than before. After all, we're talking science here and rarely do you evaluate your results before the experiment even takes place!

Assuming too much Unless the signal is ridiculously strong at that range, and let's face it, it never is, then there will always be a good deal of fence sitting in the extended text forecasts.

It's important to note this, as it isn't hyperbole! With the cold deepening and locked in for at least 7 days, huge pressure will be put on our energy grid. It doesn't look especially windy either. Don't get me wrong, I'm after the jackpot here in terms of snow (fingers crossed for next week), but there is an increased danger with any strong cold spell this year in particular.

It should definitely not be discounted, but the intensity and suddenness of the low as well as the lack of support for it (currently) means it remains a very unlikely verification, IMO.

A couple of thunderstorms rumbling through today. Excellent cloudscapes, as well. Just now some big rain and regular thunder centred just east.

Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Some juicy text to pore over today

Yes, Sheffield, Wakefield and Bradford all show temperatures either the same as places in the red warning, or actually higher when compared with the Manchester region. A big mistake from the Met Office.

I agree. There is not much difference between a very subtle trend and simple run to run variation. I believe this is the latter as there isn't enough, in my opinion, to justify the former. I appreciate it is largely interpretive to the reader though

GFS is just entertaining the more progressive solutions with the low pressure, hence the increased spread in the ensembles. The ECM looks more solid in this respect. I am not seeing anything to suggest other than a peak Monday into Tuesday with temperatures into the mid to high thirties. It looks like we will need a few more days to determine how this low behaves.

They will subtly alter each day, but it does look hot with the heatwave threshold being met there even going by the often conservative app forecast. I would say it is not standard to get a heatwave given the definition. I agree, it is not exceptional heat, but then the charts that have shown exceptional heat don't fall into the app's range yet anyway. I do believe you know this though, and are fishing.

I find the app forecasts, particularly on the Met Office site, very slow to catch up to the modelling. We've known this weekend/start of next week was going to be hot for some time now but it only updated to 26-28C a day or two ago on the site for Sheffield.

Those two statements do not link at all. Since when does a cooler spell for the NW marry up to the potential for record temperatures further south and east? Some massive IMBY overreactions this morning.

This is an excellent post. I know strictly speaking we don't want extreme heat for all the disruption it can cause to health and infrastructure, but purely from a meteorological standpoint, it's what is interesting me with the models at the moment, the prospect of such an historic event occurring. It will take a while longer yet before the aforementioned relationship (or lack of) between the Atlantic trough and the upper low is determined reliably. It is no surprise to see the GFS phase progressively and flatten the pattern compared to the rest of the suite, so I wonder whether it'll moderate down the line and bring back some more extreme solutions even in operationals.

That looks a lot better

True, I was more thinking that we do not know if it will on this run as it only goes to 120 hours. It is going to be a fun weekend

If it phases, so be it. We have a slight southwards correction and a more negatively tilted Atlantic trough. It is better than the 00z but we need further corrections.

Quite! If we think back to last week we had the form horse being a settled and cold Christmas with perhaps the chance of deeper cold towards New Year. Now we have the prospect of cold and snow at Christmas/Boxing Day (better chance further north) and the chance of deeper cold from the NE/E beyond then. Nothing has been delayed.

The south may well get only cold rain from this, but there is more to the UK than the south of England (don't tell the media that though!) To be in this position going into the Christmas is fantastic... do not lose sight of that as it may be a few years before we can entertain such prospects again. It has not turned into anything yet and you are still linking to charts a week or more away and calling it like it is going to verify like that. Nothing is set in stone and it may even be closer to t0 when we actually know what's going to happen and where, if anywhere, it might snow Chill out!

For you maybe! Would you like some pepper with all that salt Could have put money on who would be moaning this morning. We are well in the game here, as Nick has pointed out. A lot of detail still to be resolved

Again, I'm staggered how much faith some have in the fantasy island of what is only a decent weather model. It may be right, but I think there's a greater chance it is being far too aggressive, as we so often see.

Good post LRD By all means we should be keeping our feet on the ground. Where I disagree is on the line that it is ebbing away. I do not see it that way, merely just another twist on the coaster where a different (less good) scenario is entertained by a model. I also do not place much credence with the GFS, especially in FI regardless of ensemble support. It goes off on one so often that it has lost much of its longer term credibility with me. I say that with an equal scepticism had it turned up a significant colder cluster in FI this morning. Honestly, we have a few more days of our hearts skipping beats while we wait for the next run, until we at least get cross-model support on an outcome. The coldies will leap on the best run from the suite (ECM currently) while the more cautious and measured folk will highlight the worst run to keep expectations in check (GFS currently). A messy but potentially fruitful middle ground might be the form horse but equally it might just be noise and hiding an extreme. More runs needed

Worth noting the prospect of embedded cold though from the high beforehand Could easily surprise! It is academic at that range anyway as we'll see a lot of playing about with how far west our deep cold gets in the runs ahead. As I said over on TWO, all we have done is switch rollercoasters! I am calling an underwhelming 12z suite but a mouthwatering pub run. Seems the sort of set up to twist our niblets like that.