mhielte

Random model related question, possibly naïve of me, but can the presence of extensive mist and fog at the surface lead to short-term changes in the output going forward?

Colleagues in Sheffield reporting snow above 200m.

FAX charts look just as worrying!

It's not a forecast, Chris. As others have pointed out these videos change regularly and are helpful from a knowledge/analysis perspective but I know Gavin himself isn't actually predicting these sorts of very long range charts to come off.

Exactly why it needs stricter measures. With the current 'advice' people will head out regardless. It is selfish of them, but who can blame them if they've not been strictly told?

Light-ish winds and a strengthening sun - wouldn't be too bad despite underwhelming 850s.

Winter has had it's time and been a huge let down. We've had more optimistic charts in FI during the winter months which haven't materialised. It's straw clutching at it's finest this morning, with barely a sniff of wintry potential on offer. Blocking is mentioned but it is no guarantee for cold and snow, and the charts don't look encouraging on that front either. It's spring now anyway and I sincerely hope we can start dragging in higher pressure from the south and a more prolonged spell of dry weather which would be welcomed by many.

Very odd comment. Wind speeds for Sunday looks quite concerning for much of the UK? As another member has said, perhaps it would be a good idea to show the charts you are comparing to illustrate your thoughts?

As others have reported we had some very nice snow earlier. Barely settled on the grass but the flakes were very large for a time. Nice to see after such a poor winter. Sun is out now so you'd never know we'd had snow!

I agree with the video, likely wall cloud, though obviously very rain-wrapped and hard to discern

There's clearly something in the water for both GFS and UKMO to spin up such a deep area of low pressure next week. The angle of attack means that for many it will be wet rather than white as we don't drag enough cold air down from the north. Also the potential for some serious winds should this system verify as shown (likely to be moderated I would've thought). Not what people want to see really but meteorologically it is interesting to see where we go from here.

Surprised to see the UKMO explode a bowling ball low from t120-144. It looked great before then as well. How much are we trusting that evolution? The jet must really engage to steamroll our heights to the west so convincingly. I can't imagine the 00z will look quite the same.

Yes I'm not fussed with precipitation charts at day 10, as these will change from run to run. What is encouraging is that we seem to be upgrading the potential for cold and snow from run to run. As the saying goes, "get the cold in first..." Very curious as to what the 12z's will have in store for us later. Hoping the UKMO can improve from it's recent flat offerings as well.

One reason why Sheffield has been so badly affected as the last couple of major rainfalls have come from the east so there hasn't been the Peaks to shield the worst of the precipitation.

Don't speak too soon, the band has intensified in the worst possible place... just east of Doncaster. Radar looks horrendous. The main band is ebbing and flowing in intensity. Luck of the draw now whether you cop a lighter spell of rain or a deluge.

I'd be more than a little concerned for the flood prone areas right now. As @The PIT mentioned the showers north of the main band are prolonged and merging, adding to the timeframe of precipitation expected. Precipitation rates are quite high as well. It will move through quicker than last Thursday but at the same time it'll take much less precipitation to cause similarly severe impacts. The higher totals mooted by the Met of 35-45mm look closer to the mark, looking at the radar

I think I would complain if that verified in mid-December; the 850s aren't nearly cold enough for anything other than a bit of wintriness further north. It'd be cool and showery elsewhere with a keen windchill but not nearly cold enough for snow. Then again, it's one chart deep in FI and not really worth any serious consideration

I mentioned over on TWO that those automated figures are at odds with their own article on the website which talks up the heatwave potential with low 30's possible further south, high 20's widely. I expect the automated figures will rise this weekend, but perhaps not too dramatically.

I think 'very cold' is a rather extreme description!

Yep, a lot of respect to those who are putting their reputations on the line! Wouldn't want to be in charge of forecasting this setup

Looking solid so far then...

Why is it highly unlikely to come off? The ECM has been very consistent recently with the easterly cluster on the ensembles an ever-growing presence. It's far from certain, but I'd say the chances are pretty good

The 6z is about as bad as it gets. Hoping it is a big outlier on the ensembles. I'd rather it go zonal than back to the featureless crud of this output.

That isn't at all surprising. Our little island makes a big noise It's another reason why I'm staggered some can dismiss our cold prospects given the spread of options available. I'd love to be confident about our chances for sustained cold but it is impossible to be! Time to enjoy the New Year northerly and see what the models tease us with afterwards

That's not enough for people though. They want snowmaggeddon and a standard northerly with coastal snow showers is not deemed good enough. We are treated to more data than ever to pore through and it has made us greedy and unappreciative of our climate unless it is extreme.