mhielte

Credit to you if you can call two weeks ahead so confidently! Sod's law might back you though...

Huge scatter after the 7th though. Really anything could happen! Exciting but nerve-wracking all the same.

Really value analysis like this. Great post That said maybe we know too much sometimes. I'm sure I was far less stressed than this viewing the 5-day forecast on Ceefax back in the day. Page 406 I think it was

Well he can, and he did. However the GFS op is way out on its own after the 6th. Matt is a knowledgeable chap but he jumped the gun a little on this one!

Yep temps below freezing for inland areas at 12pm.

Neither is the GFS. You forget that when the ECM ballsed up the Dec 2012 easterly, the GFS correctly predicted the Atlantic making inroads. We can rank and slate the models all we like, but ignore any output at your peril.

Two 6z runs in a row! Tells you it's not wise to drink early #newpubrun

With the inevitable downgrade coming on the 12z (just how much?) I thought one of these might help this afternoon I'll be happy as Larry if the downward trend in 850s remains from the 7th onwards. Doesn't matter too much if the next op is on the milder side as long as we have the same (or more) clusters supporting a cold and snowy evolution in the 12z ens

New pants more like Next we'll see just how much of an outlier this epic run is Good to see the GFS maintain rather than sink the Atlantic ridging closer to the reliable timeframe. That straight tongue of WAA to Greenland is what we need going forward.

Absolutely, as could the rest of the run thereafter!

Whatever happens let us enjoy this run for the spectacle it provides. FI or not these are charts worth archiving!

Good to see the clustering from the 6th-9th Jan of falling 850s indicating another surge of cold from the NW/N

I can only imagine it is due to repeated failures in the past! We feel less disappointed if we 'expect' the worst to happen GEFS looks great with the op out on its own. Perhaps it is on to something, perhaps not. Good to see repeated signals for more incursions from the north...again It'll be very interesting to see where the ECM goes this evening...

Interesting guess/prediction. I'll save this for future reference Good to see the northerly plunge still on for the UK despite you saying otherwise on the 23rd. I'll take my chances and pin my hopes on January being a colder than average month with some snowfall

I'm shocked that you can call the future with any confidence given the variance in the model output especially after t120. We have a cold snap to look forward to to begin the new year and after that, who knows? All we can do is comment on the potential, whichever way it may lean. As it happens, the potential is for the cold to stay for a while longer with the prospect of reloads from the north or even north-east if you believe some models this evening. What isn't wise is to dismiss the prospects entirely based on unreliable long-term forecasts and the odd dodgy run. The GFS 12z ensembles show a noticeable upgrade compared to the 6z. Am I calling a snowy month based on that alone? Of course not! There are plenty of people who read this thread as an education (myself included) and posts like the one quoted are extremely misleading. Is it that hard to view the models with a modicum of impartiality? edit: I recognise posts in a similar vein to mine have been removed. I understand and respect if mine goes the same route but I feel it is an important message to get across

Given the performance of the long range models so far I'm urging caution to believing the background signals! However I will concede we are far from agreement on January prospects after the initial northerly.

Exactly where the MetO wants it to wander to?... "There is also the potential, although with very little confidence attached to it, that pressure may also build to the west of the UK across the Atlantic, and this would bring a high chance of seeing a colder interlude develop." from their extended outlook

Good job you live in West Yorkshire then! Potential wintry showers depending on your elevation.

I'd be more concerned if it was Christmas tomorrow. As it happens, it's two weeks away, so put the kettle on and stop worrying

Yes agreed. FWIW I know you weren't criticising Matt But worth you pointing out others are looking for snowier signals in the anomalies that aren't present at the moment

True, but in fairness Matt isn't looking for easterlies, more a discontinuation to the mobile westerly pattern later this month

The milder spell has been a consistent signal for a while now and reflects the recent MetO further outlooks. I agree with @KTtom that it's what happens after this that will determine how December pans out. There are plenty of reasons to be encouraged though, many of which have already been outlined such as the lack of zonality and a still weak jet. I am happy to put my trust in the longer-term outlooks which broadly suggest a return to a blocked/colder pattern as we head towards mid-December + + +

There was me thinking we were in a cool/cold pattern already? 850s 4 or 8c above average won't push the temperatures up much lets be honest (worth mentioning that it'll doubtless evolve differently anyway).

It's worth noting the 00z operational was one of the cooler options for western areas in particular.

Absolutely. I'm surprised at some of the more prolific posters in this thread seemingly living and dying with each run. Look to the ensembles for consistency and agreement, rather than accepting every operational chart as gospel.