mhielte

I like the fact initiation is primed for the evening hours. Gives us a chance to get home from work and chase Plenty of Pennine/Peak viewpoints near here

No I mean tomorrow daytime and evening. Models suggest north England up to S Scotland in the prime firing line, but a lot of energy further W and WSW of our locations to tap into as well.

How confident are you regarding tomorrows potential? Personally I'm hoping any storms hold off until I'm home from work at 5pm so I can get to a decent vantage point. Even better, nighttime storms would be very welcome Potential there for some strong storms though!

Very nice photo! Great looking convection

33C is likely IMO, and we *could* see a 34-35C, so not as far from record-breaking heat as you suggest, and if anything the 12z has increased the heat from the past few runs by one degree or so. ECM has followed suit I see.

Last two GFS runs have upped the heat for this week, with a stronger return of the plume heading into Saturday

No! Don't use that word!

I'm sure it's just for balance I hope so for his sanity I think the uppers are less than that today and places have seen 25C

Likely to be classed as a heatwave for your location though, going by the article I linked.

What is a heatwave?

Silly you!

I'm not criticising your logic at all, I'm sure you read the signals correctly, I'm just saying it's a little premature to be writing July off as a potentially warm/hot month. I concede it isn't likely to be special, but it *could* be.

GFS has backtracked a little from the more progressive 00z and 06z though, bringing heat back on Friday after an unstable a slightly cooler Thursday, before the Atlantic wins fully for the weekend. You're right though, UKMO and also GEM are having none of it. Hopefully the ECm won't either and the GFS will fall into line!

That's just guesswork at this stage though. This hot plume sprang up out of nowhere after weeks of average-below average conditions. Impossible to tell what July holds after the upcoming heatwave.

Great GFS 12z run so far. The heat pushes east during Thursday as storms break out but then reloads for Friday and Saturday.

Hey I swing both ways so I'll still be here in winter when the easterlies set in

It's been very dry especially further south, IIRC? I know we haven't had the temperatures to back up this summer so far but it's been far from a washout. It's inevitable some try to poke holes in the upcoming spell, it's human nature, and when we've been teased with heatwaves (likewise cold snaps in winter) that have pushed away east, it's difficult to take and we expect the same old fate when the charts throw up the eye-candy. The difference here is we're getting closer to this heatwave, and the models are in broad agreement with eachother. We have strong heights to our east, accurately modeled and supported in the ensembles for both ECM and GFS. I doubt records will be broken but 35C is looking increasingly likely given the longevity of the heat and the dry conditions.

Fantastic to see ECM so enthusiastically on board. Prepare yourselves for a classic, memorable week to come! Lets hope records get broken and the vulnerable stay safe

It all goes bang on Sunday

Still very warm/hot on Saturday on the GFS 12z. So potentially 4 straight days of 30C+ on this run. The Atlantic making no inroads to break it down at all. It's scenarios like this that could see records broken with a more sustained period of heat.

Yes, quite right. I should have waited for Thursday to appear on the 12z. It does look further east. Lets hope it's a slight outlier in terms of its progression. Heat builds back Friday though, so not a total disaster!

??? I disagree. It looks in line with the 6z so far, and temperatures are already forecast to hit 28C on Tuesday. Are you looking at the right charts/timeframes? Wednesday has 30-32C across much of England, too.

It's worth noting the Level 2 was issued for high rainfall totals, which could still happen given the mass of rain exiting northern France and tracking NNW over the coming hours.

They've moved here: http://www.stormforecast.eu/

Good catch CS, ECM out on its own with its t+120 evolution. Very strange! Conditions quieten down through Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure influencing briefly before the Atlantic looks set to return for the latter part of the working week. GFS has us under slack conditions Tuesday before a low skirts along the south coast on Wednesday, with the majority of the rain staying over the channel/continent. GEM isn't having any of it Comfortably the most unsettled model output for this week, with deep lows waiting in the wings later next week, with only the briefest of respites on Wednesday. Navgem looks good, but tenuous IMO Quite a bit of variance it must be said, with ECM throwing an interesting spanner in the works for the beginning of next week. Anything after t+120 is pure speculation with a lot of scenarios on offer *not all bad either!* One could argue that the trend for increasing high pressure influence towards the south is there, albeit in FI.