mhielte

I don't have a problem with the charts you are posting. I thought I'd comment about the mean though going into August. With it still being well into FI the mean isn't worth a great deal, especially when you look at the ensembles and see the strong divergence from the mean. There are several (encouragingly so) members warmer than the mean after 5th of August (when the scatter (read: uncertainty) widens), and also several below the mean, which by that stage is rather on its own. The mean moderates these options to what might end up being the true outcome, but at the same time hides the extremes (which could end up as the true solution) I will concede it is a useful tool to keep an eye on as we get closer to August Let's hope we see the mean creep ever further above the 10C 850HPA to support increased warm clusters

It's encouraging to see when you compare these ensembles to previous runs which had a lone blowtorch run. Now we see a little more support for some early August heat and hopefully the trend will continue. It's worth bearing in mind now to not lose sight of this potential given we are likely to see our fair share of dodgy outputs before any heat does come along (indeed, IF it does). One downside of frequent output is we can lose sight of the bigger picture as we focus on each individual run. I was guilty of this a little this morning when I sighed at the 00z runs! We'll see what the 12z op gives us in a few hours time

Encouraging FI trends continue on the latest GFS operational, with pressure once again falling over Greenland as we head into August. Let's compare the scenario with next week... High pressure over Greenland keeps the Azores high away from the UK and we are stuck under cool northerly winds with temperatures a little below average and showery outbreaks of rain. Contrast that with August 6th, and we have lower pressure over Greenland and a significant surge of high pressure over the UK, keeping things settled and dry with temperatures slightly above average. Of course, we can't pin any real detail to range that far away, but the right building blocks are in place to gradually shake off (or at least dilute) this stubborn Greeny high/NW-SE split pattern. I do urge some caution however, as I've perused the GFS and ECM recently and occasionally I've seen lowering heights over Greenland disappear on subsequent runs; the same thing could happen again owing to the cruel nature of FI cherry picking! Next step is to keep an eye out for good cluster grouping for higher pressure (particularly for more northern areas of the UK) on the ensembles for the early August period

Hot weather for some though, knocker. Looking likely we'll crack the 30C barrier next Tuesday. As for August's weather - it's pure speculation. My own guess is we'll see a rinse and repeat pattern of a few fine and warm (possibly hot for the S) days with breakdowns as low pressure returns + repeat, going into August. Typical summer fare, really

It wouldn't be the British weather if we weren't pulled through the ringer waiting to see the outcome of our summer. GFS and GEM look great but it's one run and we know how fickle the models are! I'd hesitate to call the ECM more 'realistic' just because it doesn't show a nationwide heatwave but it'd be nice if it got on board over the next few runs. Oh, and a message to GFS - stick with it and stop flip-flopping!

Plenty of dark bases here, forming a line north to south.

Well I've got Sheff Wed vs Leeds on TV whilst I have lunch and if your analysis is anything to go by, the temperatures are already too high. Dreadful football

It seems so long ago watching that Peak District storm. Wishful thinking to hope for something similar today As others have said it was the isolated nature of that storm - clear skies all around it - that made it so photogenic. Not to mention the frequency of the lightning! I'm pleased with how much sun we're getting. My main worry today was cloud cover limiting temperatures.

You know the chances for storms are good when I shun Saturday football in favour of the weather! A frustrating and exciting afternoon of radar watching awaits I'm not sure I believe the GFS max temps for some central areas today. I'm thinking 24/25C at the most. Can't see the 28Cs for the north Mids. We are bright here though.

Your posts highlights the uncertainty of this setup. There are forecasts that have central and northern England at the highest risk, yet other forecasts such as the Met Office's which show the risk further south and east.

You're not the only one baffled. Definitely a wind up post. Laughable that he's talking about early Aug 'mixed' conditions without any links to charts when the models are struggling at short range!

Hope some lucky folk in the north-east get photos of the squall line. Looks very impressive on radar.

Yes it's really organised itself well in the last hour

Band of showers to the south might give something thundery to Derby/Notts and southwards, but the northern edge is weakening.

Looks like Bradford and Leeds will cop it from that cell to the W. I'm pretty sure I've heard a couple of rumbles in the last 10 mins, but it's not a direct hit here in south Barnsley.

15:00 radar has killed everything off a little

Raining at Silverstone Some heavier showers behind this one, too.

Showers approaching Silverstone GP, should be interesting!

Clearer conditions heading this way ahead of the trough. Hopefully it'll pep up a little this afternoon during peak heating hours.

I uploaded another, shorter clip of Wednesday nights distant thunderstorm if anyone is interested Some good IC bolts on this one!

Awesome! Had a similar experience, but to be honest saw very little in the way of lightning bolts. You're right though about the open fields. I could easily have stayed up here but the thrill of the chase got the better of me, and it was great watching the sky fill up with ever-brighter flashes in Newark, and terrifying driving through sheets of rain on the way back! Some lovely loud booms of thunder here during the last hour but the lightning has died off now as it clears north

Drove down to Newark and waited as an active storm approached, then let it chase me up the A1, whch unfortunately had a portion controlled by average speed cameras of 40mph so it caught me up and dumped some of the heaviest rain I've seen on the roads. Got back to Sheffield now as the rain and thunder continues. A lot of roads flooded. Epic!

Great stuff. The guy doing all the excellent storm forecasts on here deserves an epic storm of his own

I'm sure it'll take on a more easterly element later. I even think we'll be too far west for it here. Hope I'm wrong though!

Same here that's the one I'm watching. I think it'll veer NE eventually and like you say give Lincs a nice show in the small hours. Easy to get there though, not much more than an hour drive for me.