Hocus Pocus
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Posts posted by Hocus Pocus
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14 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:
Game over for the south by Friday
It does make you feel that way with what is deemed acceptable as model discussion when the SE is in the firing line.
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Just now, trickydicky said:
On our side of the Pennines we are likely to get the 'best' of any clear periods and dodge the worst of any wind. As such if we do get a bit of snow then we could potentially be looking at the lowest night time minima (in England) being in our neck of the woods. And under these sorts of synoptics that could be pretty low, like minus high teens low in valleys. It doesn't even matter how close you are to the sea in the West really if the wind is from the East, I seem to remember Bridgefoot, which is about 2 miles in land from the sea near Workington, getting regular -15-18's during December 2010.
We’re more likely to be plagued by plates of cloud, though the nighttime minimas would still be at freezing or below.
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4 minutes ago, karyo said:
Are you looking at precipitation charts nearly a week away?
The sad part is that you could almost say with some degree of certainty how that chart will no doubt verify. ?
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I’ve been a member of the cold club for most of my life but I feel like one of those unfortunate football supporters who is passionate about his team but his designated seat is next to a bunch of biased loudmouth drunks who shout everyone else down to get their POV acrosss. ?
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Is the MOD thread now just an extension of the regionals. ?
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34 minutes ago, chicken soup said:
With this looking like a possible repeat of 1987 can anyone remember how that affected our region, im guessing the snow missed us as easterlies are crap for here.
Around here very little in the way of snow just endless cold grey skies. Hopefully it’s something similar to Feb91, that did deliver.
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1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:
Don't be so pessimistic. Easterlies can bring us snow.
I’m in my late 50s and can remember three which have. If you’re living near the Pennines or even further south of the region then yes you’ll do alright out of these but for everyone else you’re relying om the Atlantic making inroads and hopefully stalling ( like February 96 ) for your snow fix.
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I see the MOD thread has gone into orgasmic overdrive now their fabled Easterly is on the cards. Hopefully it fails like the rest of these hyped up jobs as for many of us in the NW won’t be seeing much in the way of snow or sunshine in that set up.
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Best snowfalll since 2013 around here, full whiteout conditions has left a couple of inches of snow. More on the way looking at the radar. Who needs a SSW. ?
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A real wintry mix here this morning but no settling snow as yet. Hopefully this afternoon and evening will see lower DP and BT and we at least manage a dusting, hopefully.?
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The MOD thread appears to be creaming it’s pants with a snowy Easterly affecting the SE in the outer reaches of FI. It’s a pity it’ll be gone later. ?
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19 minutes ago, SP1986 said:
There has been such potential this winter but mostly there have been let downs. This is not even because a band of ppn missed us necessarily.. it's because it was often too marginal.
At the risk of politicising the thread and drawing derogatory comments.. I feel this winter is a hint of climate change and a sign of things to come.
When I look at the opportunities we've had for significant snow this winter, I am in a kind of disbelief that it was all as marginal as it turned out to be. Synoptically it has been a fairly cold winter with polar maritime airmasses dominating .. but it's still been hard to achieve significant wintry weather
Until we see the AMO switch to its negative phase around 2020 then anything coming off the Atlantic will always be more marginal than in a -AMO. Of course whether mans influence on the climate is worth discussing is another matter.?
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1 hour ago, frosty ground said:
Except when Joe B stated his journey there was no ice, but a few miles up the road there was and he had an accident that put pressure on the NHS.
And he would still have an accident regardless of being forewarned.
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12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
They do..... Hence the need o warn people of the hazards.
and its not just deaths it's slips and of other injuries.That’s exactly what I’m referring to by dumbing down for the masses. If it’s frosty and icy outside no amount of warnings will stop people from having accidents, back in the day warnings were only issued when bad weather was imminent not that it may or may not happen.
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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
And people died..... i think its your generation that demanded the changes we now see.
People still die due to weather events, no amount of warnings will ever alter that fact.?
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8 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:
Just hope the SSW towards the end of the month delivers but even that doesn't guarantee cold for us, the cold could end up stopping at Germany and not moving any further west, still at least we have a straw to clutch. Winter weather far from over.
I just hope it doesn’t deliver a cold spring, but then again the weather will do whatever the hell it likes to do. ?
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9 minutes ago, chris78 said:
You say they have dumbed it down, but people here are complaining that, too many warnings stop people taking notice. Well isnt that treating people as dumb, the meto are hoping people have enough sense to read the warning and understand the likeliness element. To assume people cant do that and change the system would truly dumb it down.
I come from a generation that didn’t have all this nonsense thrusted upon them and yet somehow we still managed to get on with it. I understand the warnings system but there really is no need for it but then we live in a safe space sort of world these days.?
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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Indeed ad if anyone wants to look at the warning Matrix its only in the 2nd category of likely to happen.
The whole warning system is designed for the modern day “I want it now generation”,totally useless and a backward step compared to yesteryear. I’m in my late 50s and the standard of forecasting has definitely been dumbed down for the masses to the point that I don’t bother to watch or read them anymore.
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
Hoping meto put a warning out for tomorrow - that will increase confidence..
Like chris i think snow will fall to low levels tomorrow morning..
A topsy turvy few days ahead with spell of rain closely followed by heavy wintry showers and like tomorrow some of these could give some of us a covering of snow. Lots of interesting weather for sure over the next few weeks.
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5 minutes ago, griff74 said:
Oh there's been a telling off in the MOD thread!!
Thank goodness, who cares about the impacts of an alleged hypothesis in being correct.
Back to the really important stuff now, will it snow IMBY. ?
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Not much in the way of proper cold or lying snow around these parts though the fells around have covering. Had a slight frost early this morning but the clouds built in bringing some patchy drizzle. Current temps aren’t all that cold either, currently showing 4c. I
i think next weeks snow events will end up a big disappointment for many with a decaying front both Tuesday and Thursday proabably fizzling our as it crosses the region.
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2 hours ago, Nick L said:
Hell of a stormy winter so far? Seriously? 13/14 was a stormy winter. This has been nowhere near a stormy season. There have been a few storms, nothing out of the ordinary.
Quite.
I was beginning to think I was in my own microclimate and had missed the stormy December.
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Hopefully our Cumbrian residents see a covering of snow out of tonight’s little feature, fingers crossed.
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I think many are disappointed because at the start of the week this had our name written all over - 7c / -8c uppers DP at or below freezing and a unstable W/NW flow......... What could possibly go wrong.
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North west regional discussion
in Regional
Posted
I’m not so sure of that GS, I would wait until Monday. ?