Hocus Pocus
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Posts posted by Hocus Pocus
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9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
That is my main fear Ian..and the reason I want to exploit this weak PV as soon as we possibly can. It's all good and well saying patience required...but it doesn't always work that way...
Indeed, the law of averages at least dictates that. In the meantime what we don't want to see is some of these promising charts always being stuck at day 10 and never making it into the t-144 range. One thing which does worry me is having the block in the wrong place and we end up with west based NAO.
I think I need to up my dosage of happy pills
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Hi Ian
Thanks for your response .
I hope you don't think for one minute I was having a go at you as you've probably forgotten more then I'll ever come to understand. I just think as BFTP alluded to further up that no one signal drives the other and it's more like a jigsaw with each tiny piece playing its part in the overall picture. The fact that your early thoughts have been amended kind of shows this to the the case, though as of yet your overall forecast may well still be proven right. Either way good luck and keep posting.
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Off topic I know but where's knocker? I miss his posts even if he's a mildie at heart he does give some much needed balance amongst those of us just looking for cold.
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Well I suppose we've made some progress as you were ruling out a cold winter month period up until now Ian. This forecast of yours has had more revisions than Englands attempt at finding a winning formula prior to any big tournament.
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Well the 18z has certainly brought back a smile to my face, though the volatility of the models will no doubt throw a completely opposite solution tomorrow. Such is life being a winter weather watcher.
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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:
And that smashed up PV is in a pseudo reliable timeframe too.
Is it being over progressive though as the 18z sometimes can be. I think Ian's update shows just how volatile the models are at the moment but still it's a bit of a choker considering how upbeat they were for cold just a week ago towards the latter end of the month. I suppose a week is a long time in weather.
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Though the models don't look great for entrenched cold nor do they look good/bad (depending on your viewpoint ) for anything other than average with the odd mild day thrown in. Still no sign of anything organised towards Greenland and as long as that remains in situ then I'll keep the GP's appointment for anti-depressants on hold for now.
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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Very tough to rule out a west based neg NAO
Just need to get a decent neg NAO to begin with although where the blocking to our north is centred will also be unknown
it won't be a continual swathe of high heights from nw Russia to Greenland
Something the seasonal models wouldn't be able to pick up as such then BA and still be right on paper?
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Even though the EC seasonal look very good on paper is there still a chance we could end up with a west based -NAO?
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1 hour ago, Seasonality said:
Weatherbell I have no problems with, but I just find Joe B himself tends to be a bit over the top and his views on climate change are tin foil hat territory, so I just can't take him seriously anymore. Last year he was pitching a "Nasty winter shaping up for Europe" "especially the UK" in terms of cold and we know where that went. There are more examples that I recall that I'd dig up if I had the time but there you go. Just to be clear again, not casting any aspersions on Westherbell, I just don't trust Big Joe B.
He's probably forgotten more than you'll ever come to understand though, and please leave that awful politicalised subject out of here thank you.
With regards to the EC seasonal does that imply heights over Scandinavia retrogressing towards Greenland before the PV ramps up a notch and dislodges heights over our side of the pole as the winter progresses?
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21 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
Fortunately, none of them will be right and none of them stretch into winter....
There's one thing I've learnt from years of studying model output and that is no matter how progressive etc, etc a model run is never discount it as unlikely to happen,, more so when it's a projection that hasn't happened yet. So until it actually verifies or not, then it's just another solution that may or may not happen.
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Don't get me wrong I'm not having a dig at you Ian and you're quite right it says it on the tin " preliminary ", but the facts are you were very descriptive in how you felt it was likely to play out and I'm merely suggesting ( not that I'm some sort of weather guru or expert ) that October is far too early for such in depth details.
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Surely the problem Ian is issuing a forecast in October when all the relevant players have yet to show their hand?
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Fascinating stuff readiing how the pros are looking at this going forward and the insight into the inner workings of the MetO. Sorry just realised I'm off topic.
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Any weather or climate story in the media should be filed under fables for much of the time.
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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
neither - it was GP !
not going to trawl through the thread but I get the feeling that ian isn't using any models - just referencing his experience and the expected changes re the time of year and how they might interact with where we currently are.(SST'S etc)
Nail on head BA, which is fine per se until the projected changes in the season take a different path to the norm. To be fair Ian's track record during the winter months with the short samples at hand has been very good but we're looking at a different NH profile at this point in the junction so all bets are off until the main players at the table show their hand over the next few weeks I would say.
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27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
All this mid autumn cold chasing will invariably lead to even worse symptoms come December onwards (assuming we don't get a November freeze! )
any coldie dismissing the ecm op 00z as disappointing needs to have a word with themselves !
'Atlantic trough disrupts west of the UK and ejects system to our south creating a Euro low'. Sounds dreadful!! I would far rather see that evolution on the fi models in mid winter than a greeny ridge.
Indeed, it's not about the here and now or early November but the bigger overall picture. The NH profile is a sight to behold and as long as that stays very much in situ then our chances for the months ahead remain higher than normal, for a cold pattern to develop that is.
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4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:
....and some very interesting ongoing signals for rest of Nov and 1st half of winter. Rest assured we have some very interesting model-watching coming our way :-) Enjoy.
You do know you shouldn't tease the customers like that Ian..
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17 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:
Them cold SSTs across the NE Pacific are striking though. PDO I think it relates to. Different these last few years by how warm it's been in that region!
That for me is what's been driving the last few years winters weather here allowing for a very cold set up over the eastern seaboard of the states which in turn has fuelled the jet to race across the Atlantic one after another. Will this year break the trend?
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9 minutes ago, jvenge said:
Nothing at all to do with climate science.
Ok, noted you don't know the reviewers. Just a website statement.
Well, enjoy this "climate science" thread. Good day.
There lies the problem with climate science, too many self proclaimed experts with little knowledge in meteorology let alone climate, both past and present. The whole debate is so polarised its become a playground for the mentally challenged with the same old, same old pushed forward as some kind of evidence for being right without even bothering to acknowledge the others point of view whether it's backed up with science or not.
Ps This s isn't directed at your good self by the way.
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What a surreal thread.
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My hopes are for a winter akin to 1947 and 63 combined. Sadly my thoughts are slightly different and on the lines of watered down version of 2010/11 with a colder than average December proceeding a milder than average January, February.
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7 minutes ago, iapennell said:
Dryish, for the SE of England and (possibly) East Anglia too, I agree. Here in the North Pennines it's been Wet Wet Wet (!) the last few days.
IF ONLY the persistent high was near Iceland and extended a ridge south-eastwards with LOW PRESSURE over Europe (and that was in the forecasts) we would have much more exciting late October weather and going into November. Something like what happened in October-November 1993!
We've hardly seen much in the way of rain this side of the Pennines for the last month and looking at the MetO 16-30 forecasts they are expecting the dryish theme to continue for the majority Ian.
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All the model output I've seen is suggestive of the dryish theme to continue into the first week of November?
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A quick,question from a novice like me. Could such an event not have the same impact as the one in 2009/10 ( I think it was back then ) when a SSW reversed an already established cold NH pattern for our part of the world?