Hocus Pocus
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Posts posted by Hocus Pocus
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I think we maybe missing the biggest culprit of them all, the sun and it’s overall net effect on our climate.
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Just now, Ed Stone said:
Indeed Mark. And who can forget the shenanigans back in December 2012: even the Beeb/MetO were on board...the rest, as they say, was history!
Indeed.
No model output should be discounted just because it’s a lone wolf, nothing is ever set in stone in the world of meteorology.
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Some wet snow here leaving a slushy deposit on rooftops, cars etc.
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7 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:
This ^^^
The IRI produce this chart, that shows all the ENSO predictions for the last year or so.
It shows that the models can go off track quite a lot (black line = obs).
Anyway I released a seasonal forecast today. It's for the European Alps, but also has relevance for the UK, as I focus on impacts to the AO. Enjoy....
Yes, the huge amount of scatter highlights how much ENSO has been poorly modelled throughout the year, this is why I’m not buying into just how strong Nina becomes. Anyway enough on this matter what will be will be. ?
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10 minutes ago, Catacol said:
95/96 bottomed out at around -1. Bulk of the Metoffice members are seeing -1.5 to -2. Not the same. 88/89 and 98/99 both had Ninas in this bracket... and none of our more famous winters have occurred in Ninas of greater than -1. The only exception was the early cold we got in Dec 10 but the strength of the Nina that year soon put an end to the cold. Chio's call of front loaded cold (if we are to get some) would seem a good call at the moment. We may need to make the most of what is coming in around 10 days' time and hope that the strat/trop disconnect can continue as long as possible.
But hey - funny things happen. The Nina could begin to wane quicker than expected and trend back towards neutral, and then the next MJO phase later in December might possibly have enough grunt to force some higher lat blocking. Only time will tell... but I will be watching Nina development over the next 4 weeks carefully. If it continues to deepen right through to Xmas then..... :-(
ENSO has been poorly modelled fthroughout this year so any such predictions should be taken with a large dose of salt. Most of the climo models appear to be factoring in a moderate Nina hence the less than spectacular long range forecasts
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27 minutes ago, Catacol said:
MetOffice ENSO forecast has updated today and is now predicting a deeper Nina. Not good news if we want to see cold later season. Moderate to strong Ninas have a poor track record for UK winter.
You can get exceptions with 95/96 being one of them, that was a moderate Nina winter.
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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:
Nick, I don't think it should come as any surprise that the extended ensembles are sniffing a move away from a -AO. The long range seasonals have mostly been suggesting a +AO/NAO winter for a significant period of time...including December.
They’ve hardly covered themselves with glory over the years though, I’m not suggesting that they are wrong now but all long range modelling is pretty poor really.
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26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Eps AO/nao combo now bottoming out around -2 before recovering to neutral by end week 2. The heady days of -4 not seen for several runs now.
Just goes to show anything past the 7-10 day timeframe should come with a government health warning. On a positive note a blocking feature towards our N/NW is still the form horse but where it sets up is still undecided and for how long looks even more indecisive.
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2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
TAF: EGCC 121655Z 1218/1324 30010KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 1218/1224 31015G25KT PROB40 TEMPO 1218/1301 2000 SHRASN SHSN BKN006 BECMG 1300/1303 30020KT TEMPO 1300/1317 32025G35KT PROB40 TEMPO 1305/1307 2000 SN BKN003 BECMG 1316/1319 32008KT
Manchester Airport going for snow from 5am to 7am
The times keep moving forward if I'm not mistaken. I think I'm going to give this one up as a bad job the radar suggest nothing much happening for my neck of the woods. Still at least the South saw some snow.
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I heard there was supposed to be some wintry weather for today, can someone confirm this please.
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2 minutes ago, karyo said:
This is what I hate the most about this! They are claiming it is an upgreat anything that increases the chances of snow in the south regardless of what happens for the rest of the country.
It makes for depressing reading having to wade through pages of waffle about increased snow prospects in the Home Counties etc, etc. Best to keep a check on this thread and get a more balanced view on matters at hand here.
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I see the southern contingent have collected all their toys and put them back in their prams now an easterly is being modelled. Let's hope if doesn't go mammories up.
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Looking at all the parameters I think my locale could miss out on all the action over the next few days. It appears South of a line from Manchester will be in the firing line and the further North in the region away from coastal strips could remain predominantly dry. As ever it's a case of wait and see.
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5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:
Wonder if the forum will crash later when the evening runs get going,will be busy for the Mods later
C.S
Could be a busy night for the Mental Health Crisis Team if we see a downward spiral after today's 06z.
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9 minutes ago, knocker said:
If by chance I'm included in that general condemnation, as I usually am, then I would be grateful if you would illustrate your criticism with examples of misleading statements I have made in recent posts. And whilst we are on the subject the vast majority of misleading statements and downright lies posted in the MOD thread are without question posted by those of a certain persuasion to satisfy their bias. Of course no big surprise when nobody has an issue with that.
As much as I would like to see a potential cold spell being modelled in the output I'm also a realsist and I have to agree with you on this knocker that some posters seem to let their prejudices cloud their judgement, or so it seems.
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Sorry off topic mods but wholly appropriate for the mass hysteria that's broken out.
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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Met office still playing their cards close to their chests then. Still no indication of a colder AND snowier mid to end of the month.
A rather chilly but benign outlook really, nothing of note to wet the appetite if its snow you're looking for.
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Stunning pictures Ravelin.
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I think the only notable weather over the next 10+ days will be who gets clear skies and frosts and those who don't. A fairly nondescript period of weather coming up with all eyes on mid December onwards for anything of note weather wise to comment on, still it beats last years dire weather for sure.
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9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
The ski resorts have certainly had it bad over the past few winters first, it was too mild for snow
Now it's turned colder we have a blocking high over the UK keeping all the precipitation away
They've actually had a some good winters up there despite being mild and wet in England.
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5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
The disappointing aspect re their update is that end Nov/early Dec was (only 10 days or so ago) being touted as the period 'to watch for' height rises to our North.
Yes, it doesn't give us much confidence for mid December despite these favourable NH patterns and whose to say any energy exiting the States etc, won't throw a further spanner in the works. Still the next few days should be relatively cool/cold with some overnight frosts for those who can avoid the plates of cloud.
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I just don't see any cold spell per se visting these shores anytime soon regardless of the favourable NH pattern. If it can go wrong it will go wrong for this little part of the world. Heights are far to robust to our south and the stubborn Siberian high has hindered rather than helped us.
Until we see changes in these two areas then fleeting cold snaps via either surface conditions or a quick bite of the cherry is all we can hope for. The question is how long before these alleged favourable NH synoptics break down to something more traditional?
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Reading inbetween the lines of the current and many recent Met office long range forecasts - likely to be a colder than average start to December at least, and the complete opposite to last year.
By next weekend we should start to be able to firm up a little more on likely developments through the first half of December at least and possible trends for later in December, but Jan and Feb remain a long way away, and whilst we should take note of the long range seasonal forecasts as they all emerge at the end of November, its best to keep a very open mind.
My hunch is December at least will produce colder than average conditions and not just one-two day wonder, but probably quite long lasting at times, whether in stages or consistently, I can't comment on right now, but by next weekend should be able to speculate somewhat.
The current northern hemispheric set up is much more akin to this date in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012, than 2011, 2013-2015.. a fractured polar vortex showing no signs of gathering itself together anytime soon, and a base state conducive to 'northern blocking' with a diffuse southerly tracking jet in an amplified state. All key ingredients for enhancing the likelihood of colder than average conditions as we enter the winter period.
As it stands the MetO are not looking at anything particularly severe in terms of cold so whilst compared to recent years it will be most welcoming I think expectations of bitter cold and deep snow should be best kept to the realms of fantasy for now, that's not to say we should stop dreaming of course.
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Still far too much volatility in the model output with wild swings from one set up to another, for me I think the majority of the U!K will see heights located close by to the UK with any precipitation mainly towards the South of the country. Nothing overly exciting is getting my juices flowing just yet but we are talking post ten days anyway.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It may well be an outlier but at the end of the day it’s as much chance as verifying as any other model output, unless of course you’re in possession of a time machine that is.?