Hocus Pocus
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Posts posted by Hocus Pocus
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15 minutes ago, karyo said:
I do not expect global temperatures to drop (like some people think it will) but it should at least increase the frequency of southerly tracking jet and northern blocking so our winters will be better than now. Of course, we will still be fighting with the warmer sea temperatures.
The warmer sea temps in the Atlantic are down to the AMO being in its positive phase, this is due to switch around 2020 so hopefully we’ll see a return to seeing the Atlantic in a similar position as it was during the 50-80s.
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Another projected snow event bites the dust, nothing but sleet/rain in the early hours despite the warnings of heavy snow from around 01:00am.
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25 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
And sadly, unless sea ice in the Arctic recovers and global warming lessens then we probably will never get a cold set up which will deliver uppers of -15 or below ever again really as the PV is far too weak and fragmented these days. Although that said, i think February in the 2011/12 season had a massively deep cold pool over the continent which nearly headed our way but sadly did'nt. Unfortunately, Western Russia these days during the winter months tend to be dominated by high pressure rather than a chunk of PV dropping there so whilst that remains to be the case, a beast from the east will not happen.
Absolute rubbish really regardless of ones view on whether man can influence climate by that much. We endured warming durning the Middle Ages and during Roman Times, so saying that our climate is altered permanently is poppycock really. Climate is never Linear.
Sorry for the rant, its been a long day.
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Reports of 2cm of lying snow around parts of Leeds which begs the question just what wind direction actually brings us snow.
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Well the MOD thread continues with its “if it’s not an Easterly we’re not interested” commmets for next week. Personally I’d take next week over any Easterly that just brings dry but cold and grey conditions around these parts. Could be some big surprises next week for many in the NW, it’s a similar set up to Jan 84 though back then the Atlantic was much colder with the AMO in its negative phase. Still I feel many will see falling snow at some point next week, lying snow is a different matter though but transitory falls almost anywhere wouldn’t surprise me.
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Well around here Ian’s forecast for December was a big bust no matter how you dress it up. I’m a firm believer in that the only correct LRF is one after the event but with one third of winter gone it’s 0-1.
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Not the best of updates if you’re looking for anything cold, bog standard UK winter fayre going of that and the 16-30day update.
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19 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
It's usable. I agree that not seeing the sun for more than a week or so is depressing, but the mild and drizzly conditions are actually perfect at this time of year.
I have to reluctantly disagree with you on this as mild without Sun is like cold without snow. ?
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13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
It is funny reading some suggestions like, nothing to look forward to, winter is over. Some seem to have forgotten what was being said way back in November. Quite large areas of England and Wales got several cm's of snow and several days of frosts. So what is so different now?
The mind boggles John if some feel that cold & snowy weather is the only thing in life worth looking forward to cometh the winter.
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
Aye mushy and I'd like to see these brash young things on a small ship in a F12 with 60-80 foot seas running. Sorts the men from the boys.
Aye, until you’ve ventured onto the Cairngorm Plateau on a wild mid January day then you’ve no idea what cold and snow is.?
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Sixth consecutive day of mist and drizzle, how anyone can love this mild gunk is beyond me.
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My tuppence worth (not that it’s worth much ) is the models continue to struggle with the upstream pattern post Xmas offering a variety of solutions within the ensembles. One only has to look at the MetO updates to see the wide range of scatter on offer so it’s no good following every single run as if your life depended on it, just sit back, watch with interest and try to spot these upstream signals without the emotive outbursts on each and every run. Back to the sidelines for me.
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Absolute zilch here, the search for snow continues.
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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Could you explain what is 'interesting' to some new members that chart just looks like a kid has drawn on it with crayons
Heights towards the NE and a trough to the SE
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
Think im fast becoming your partner in crime moki!!
Think im going to take a break..
Being a snow fan in this wretched place is just a joke..missing out from the south from the west and now the east.
Don’t forget about me. ?
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Nothing here and not expecting anything else. ??
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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:
We may have missed out largely from this snow event but I would rather have this pattern than the awful December 2015 one. Remember Boxing Day 2015?
Indeed, though with a much flatter pattern being touted in FI let’s hope we don’t see a return to said conditions for any lengthy period of time, if at all for this winter. ?
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1 minute ago, karyo said:
Looking at how the models performed, the GFS and the ICON model were persistently north of the actual track. The ECM did very well in picking up the southern corrections and of course the short range models, in particular the euro 4.
Some dandruff fell here this morning when there was hardly any wind but as soon as the easterly picked up it dried up completely. As the band was further south, Staffordshire ended up in a rain shadow. Good to see that Manchester is not the only sufferer.
Despite some disputing your analysis a few days ago, you ended up more or less right with the track of the low.
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Just now, benricky said:
Think it’s time to jack weather watching in. Have to tell the kids that yet again the forecasts got it wrong and spend a fortune making it up to them lol?
Buy them a couple of sledges....... On second thoughts. ?
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Just now, Backtrack said:
Met office downgraded to just light snow here now for a few hours
It’s looking like the southward correction has taken much of the hope away with it, there’s still time for further slight adjustments northwards so for those in the south of the region I wouldn’t give up all hope just yet. Whatever happens it’s been a fun ride and hopefully all of us will reap the rewards next time around.
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Looks a bust already Ian unless we see a dramatic switch within the model output then the stormy mild spell will be put on hold for another month.
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15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
I can't see it being a drizzly mess as you put it but intensity of the PPN will be determined on the day itself really. Just keep watching the radar and see what happens instead of writing it off before it begun, if you live in North Lancashire and Cumbria I would understand your frustration.
You feel my pain too.
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MetO App showing heavy snow between 16:00 - 18:00, the reality will be nothing of the sort as the Radar is showing any precipitation to be well South of here. All in all a pretty disappointing day which started well but ended up a bit of a slushy mess. As for tomorrow.......... ????
North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards
in Regional
Posted
I’m not so sure Karyo as I feel it’s being overestimated, we haven’t warmed a great deal during the last 150 years and we still can’t pin down just how much of that warming is down to CO2.. Anyway this is way off topic and hopefully at the very worst we’ll actually get some colder winters thrown into the mix, hopefully.?