[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

The magic of reverse logic on a BBC weather app, downgrades intensity of shower activity only for real time nose pressed against a window watching to,confirm  moderate/heavy snow shower. ?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

The heavy snow showers on the BBC app have now given way to light showers, must be a good omen that. ?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

well bbc app says lees oldham 0 degress from 2pm and heavy snow until 5pm

that will be another load of horse manure- 

Good old trusty BBC Weather App. ?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Just now, karyo said:

Couldn't agree more!

They never use to be Karyo, it’s only in the last few years the quality appears to have gone downhill somewhat. 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Great start to the day up here around 2” snow with the threat of more to follow throughout daylight hours. The MetO warnings are rubbish, they’ve just take down the Amber warning for tomorrow  but have nothing but a yellow for today.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The northern extent of the amber warning area matches his tweet, so to me nothing has changed really. Still nervy times though.

I’m out of the Amber zone by some 15 miles or so. I’ve got lots of outside jobs to catch up on so seen as it’s going to be a fairly benign few days I’ll crack on. ?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

 Chris Fawkes Tweet has certainly dampened my enthusiasm so it’s best to expect nowt and that way we won’t be all that surprised.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

I’m puzzled at the Amber warnings for anywhere North of Manchester going of the available data at hand.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

We need the power of thought to increase our chances on Sunday......... Now let’s all join hands and wish it be. ?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

haha yes thats right!! i was just watching 6z and thinking exactly the same thing- oh well, we got a dusting overnight- problem was half the dusting melted with an hour of settling- now its just an ice rink.

 

I think it’s best we avoid the MOD thread until after Sunday/Monday, it’s already full of will it snow IMBY down in the Home Counties.?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yes the overnight runs have again shifted south!!

North of manchester now close to being out of the game -

need an URGENT drift north but i really don't think thats gona happen-  i was thinking im jinxed then just accepted this locale where i live (despite the altitude), absolutely sucks eggs for snow- its fine and dandy for rain tho!!

Have faith......... Wednesdays system definitely won’t miss us. ☔️

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 Its a chart in the public domain just like all the others - take what you want from it.

This one isn't exactly blowtorch Atlantic mush - time will tell  -  its on to nowcasting Sat evening onwards.

Indeed they are but they rarely verify, the Euro4 is the only one I pay attention to.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Well if these verify why bother looking? - this is in all day for you.

How many times do they verify is a better question. ?

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Another storm in a teacup really, the problem with the U.K. is the chances of getting a nationwide snow event are slim to none at the best of times so for those who get snow good luck for those of us who don’t ( myself included ) back to the outer reaches of FI looking for obscure synoptic patterns that may, just may deliver. ???

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Another storm in a teacup IMBY. Dry and rather cold with no chance in hell of anything falling from the sky tonight. I’ll wager my left nut now that Sunday’s event turns into a no show for those North of the Ribble. ???

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

1 minute ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Well atleast the whole region is in the sweet spot for sunday going by the latest GFS

As it stands but I wouldn’t wager any money on it just yet. ?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

yes i'm getting a bit worried about the complete lack of showers - 

hope its not going tits up

It wouldn’t be the first time nor the last if it does.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Still nothing here and looking at the radar I can’t see much in the way of precipitation in my neck of the woods. 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Indeed. Relax, have a beer, and enjoy the ride. 

The worst that could happen is it doesn’t snow. :-) 

‘‘Tis only weather as they say. ? 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

IMBY I expect to pick up one or two snow showers overnight and possibly into tomorrow morning, thereafter nothing to see here. ?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

I think some of us North of the Ribble will be wondering what all the fuss is about come next week, looking like a dry but cold snap of weather from Thursday Evening onwards.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

re this comment

Maybe the experts could refresh us on how sliders are modelled in regards to their biases? This might give us a hint of what to expect in a few days? 

No model has any bias, all are run with the mathematics to deal with the laws of physics as applied in meteorology. Lows and highs appear/disappear on this basis.

Indeed John. Though for some the laws of physics need not apply when viewing any model output when it shows something they’re not too keen on.

From years off model watching purely from a rank amateurs perspective these sort of set ups are never resolved until +24-48hrs, the genral theme of a low dropping on a SE axis is relatively straight forward once within these timescales but the boundary between rain and snow less so with so many variables that come into play. A great learning curve watching this unfold though.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Looking like those of us North of the Ribble will miss out on the action if the output turns out to be correct. Hopefully we see winds swing to a more Westerly element, purely IMBY of course.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

4 minutes ago, comet said:

Why put so much emphasis on what the Met have to say. They have Been spouting cold for the first half of Dec for a week at least, now if it is going to be milder it does not fill you with confidence in what they have to say when they could not see this coming until it's right on their door step.

I said yesterday or the day before no one has a crystal ball. Let's see what this afternoon and this evening bring.

 

 

Off topic I know but to be fair the MetO haven’t been spouting anything, their forecasts have often highlighted the uncertainty going forward.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

It’s always amusing viewing others hypermanic reactions to each and every model run and then go to proclaim that said run is set in stone at +264hrs, until the next run of course.