Dr. Astro

Worth keeping a keen eye on..

It's unstable, and people will get snow if the charts were correct as of right now. It's too far out though for detail.

Not sure, maybe it's a different perspective for us up North - for me, this is just a small storm, 50-70mph winds and some rain, with potential to some small damage too, I don't get the hype to be honest.

Aye, those are the "minimum" temperatures expected.

I think this feature coming down from the North is worth keeping an eye on for Sunday, and is possibly what the UKMO are talking about re what Ian Fergusson said earlier. Could deliver some substantial snowfall for Yorkshire/Humber, Central belt & the south should it verify.

And that'll be the more "pronounced E/NE" feed: Eesh... Remember - it's not all about snow & cold and filling your faces... Don't forget at times like this to warn the elderly should these runs come to fruition, theres always a real danger to them with these synoptics.

Many thanks Ian, it appears it's a pretty volatile solution which is going to keep the UKMO on it's toes leading into this weekend & the next. Non the less, the UK looks set to take a dip into the freezer come next week. Great to have a professional view on this forum, or a level head should I say.

I can't see anything for the North West tonight below Cumbria area, it's looking quite dry before the high winds and wet weather tomorrow. I'd think you have a half decent chance on Saturday night.

The top chart is the 2m anomaly, from 13th January to the 21st January.

Uppers might be decent enough, but 2m temps are around 3C with dew at 1C. Wasn't expecting anything from this band to be honest, and it's moved through really quickly. Showers later may be of interest for some.

Picadilly. Moderate rain now.

Light rain here in Manchester.

Beautiful Pictures Tony, Enjoy :-)

Indeed Rob.... MAX:

The pressure gradient wont stop any showers coming into the East. Albeit, agreed it would be better for it to be lower, with more disturbances. It's your typical setup, cold surface, cold isotherm, sunny for the west, snow showers daily for the East. The trend is there on the GFSP - the outcome depends on the disturbances, so finer details at this point are pointless to predict.

Absolute stonking run from the GFSP - I have watched the pattern for the past 5 days, and the Atlantic Train is grinding to a halt, the Beast from the East is quite powerful, but blocking heading for Scandinavia. Great times for the Eastern counties & London. It's not often you get a near full run without any mild interludes. Will be interesting to see the other models and how they handle the situation, but we *could* be staring down the barrell of cold & snowy weather. Lets see how it pans.

That's true. Albeit i'm expecting the life to be sucked out of it by the Welsh Mountains.

The precipitation is quite further north than I expected, especially after looking at the Euro4 model. It seems the GFS might be on course what CreweCold posted earlier.

GFS(P) Goes for a very snowy outlook pre-240. Very cold too. Think this place would meltdown if charts verified. Long way to go yet. Atlantic looks dead in the water, it just has no fight. The block over Scandi is great. The one in white, is Ian Brown.

Hi Civil, The 850's are approx 1.5km up - so it's not a good way to see how warm/cold it will be at the surface. It's actually going to be freezing for the majority. A bit like today. So + 850's do not indicate warm weather at surface level.

You are comparing a 18 year old weather enthusiast with an Expert from the Metoffice? I'm quite confident Chris knows the technical aspects of a SSW.

The UKMO 120hr is a good chart. Get the established UK High, followed by inversion = cold & icy conditions. Albeit it's usually dry, it can also be key in getting colder air to the UK in the long term. A great chart for coldies to start off with.

Merry Christmas all :-) :smiliz19: :smiliz19: :smiliz19:

Add the CMA to that too, it does not get much of a mention being a Chinese model, but it's in agreement, and brings in a stronger Easterly. Perhaps the 12Z's will go down this route...

A decent run from the GFS(P) - Cold & Snowy is the main theme all the way through the run. Event the Operational towards the end gives snow from a cold Westerly feed. No faith or confidence at the moment though, need another 24-48 hours to see if we can get a cross model agreement on what path the LP system takes. We could end up in a Westerly wet feed, or a cold & snowy one. Long way to go chaps.