daz_4

The amount of warmth next week over Europe is quite extreme. Those temps would be above average in April. The first half of February will be 6-8C above average here in Central Europe. Ridiculous, especially for a winter that should be backloaded apparently.

Ali1977 Sorry but I'm struggling to see what's good about this mean in second half of February, especially in current climate. SSW is not a positive for me this late in winter season. Even if it produces, unlike the first one, it will be spring.

jules216 Yep, nothing of interest in the models apart from crazy rogue GFS op runs. The first half of February has a chance to be record warm here in Central Europe. Temps around 10C even at night.

ICE COLD The control is nothing to write home about. The uppers are not that cold and temps at 2m are quite high across whole Europe.

@jules216 Yep, it is going to be a struggle to get something of note apart from higher elevations even here in Central Europe. Even the "better" GFS runs have zero ice days and not that much snow. Not that I mind, I like winters less and less due to the fact how they changed but I sure hope that we will get a warm spring for once. Those northerlies in spring have been pain the ass for the past few years.

GFS Op is a huge outlier for Central Europe with that cold pool.

Would bet that GFS Op is the coldest outlier for Central Europe.

I believe that's a real risk for continental Europe in the second half of the next week. In the freezer for now though.

This deserves its own thread in my opinion. What a disaster and what a failure for models.

I have no confidence in those pretty analogues showing negative east based NAO. It has become clear in the last ten years that no matter the starting conditions, the end result is pretty much the same over Europe with exception of odd month or few weeks here and there. This I believe will be even more apparent this year. There is so much heat in the system. We will have fourth consecutive month with record warm anomaly that will beat the previous record by a huge margin. The oceans are extremely warm which will certainly not help. Even average winter relative to 91-20 normal would be a huge surprise to me.

It's 9pm and it's still 28C outside. Just horrible. Another tropical night ahead of us.

Don't really agree with regards to 15/16. I guess it was better in your neck of the woods as I know your location can hold onto the cold much longer. December 15 was extremely warm, almost 5C above normal, January had two wintry weeks but very little snow and overall not really cold at all. February was 4C above normal.

Very different winters, at least in Central Europe.

What I would to to live in UK right now. Just absolutely miserable and upleasant in Central Europe lately. Temps around 30C, dew points around 20C. This has been going on for 8 days and will continue for the foreseeable future.

Not a single day goes by without seeing crazy flash floods, storms, heatwaves etc. We have record high ocean temp, 2m temp, record low global sea ice and yet we are acting like nothing is going on. Do we need a widespread wet-bulb temperature event or collapse of our food chain to wake us up? Because by then it will be really late (it's late now already).

Could be ugly in my country. GFS is showing some crazy values for CAPE*shear which I have never seen forecasted here.

I don't think we have a good analogue for what is happening now. This year is in a league of it's own.

El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

The post from Tamara in the MOD thread is certainly worrying. We can already see what is happening in Portugal and Spain. The intensity and longetivity of the warm spell there is astouding. They basically jumped straight to summer in March. Once the influence of SSW fades, we are in for a ride I think and I'm not sure we are going to like it.

Probably next if El Niňo takes hold though there are still some who thinks there will be no El Niňo this year (and next).

Quite a warm up in the last few days in Niňo 1+2.

Well, with already record high SST and upcoming El Niňo, I'm certainly expecting a scorching summer here in Central Europe.

Once again extreme warmth from January to March only to get a direct hit from north in April. Temps dropping to -6C for several nights in row. Lot of trees already in full bloom unfortunately.

It's pretty crazy how high SST are at the moment. And El Niňo has not even started yet.

It's coming this time, isn't it?