daz_4
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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?
daz_4 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't like ECM. It's very reluctant to drop the cold air south though it probably fits with the anomalies for the end of the January that Ventrice posted on twitter yesterday. GFS Control is my run of the morning. -
Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?
daz_4 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Does it though? Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong but I see most of the Europe average or slightly above and cold locked away in Scandinavia. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well still better than what Para produced this evening after 144h. -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yep, could be interesting week for us with cold air dropping as soon as Wednesday. Arctic days possible as well. Let's wait and see! -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's hope we can't but there are few GEFS which are similar for 15th in terms of uppers. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't you worry, jules. I'm pretty sure that downgrades of that cold for Central Europe are behind the corner. EC op doesn't really have support for those frigid runs. It will get cold but I doubt that much. -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
daz_4 replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
After December with the pattern too west we are on our way to have January with everything too east. Looks like 6z could deliver something by 384h though -
Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020
daz_4 replied to SqueakheartLW's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
While a valid point I don't think the pattern we were in was a winter nirvana or something. While UK and Western Europe was getting below average uppers it was nothing to write home about and rest of the Europe was very warm. So I will take a SSW in this case.- 1,801 replies
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
daz_4 replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You can't say SSW is not having an impact but it seems Europe somehow once again manages to end up in the middle of nothing on this run. Slight shift westwards and we would be in the game but will we get it? Not feeling that optimistic after reading the strat thread. Seems like the hype of days past has quickly dissapeared. -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The upcoming weekend looked quite nice for Central Europe but GFS just keeps downgrading the uppers so it will be fighting for scraps once again. It's quite something that we are approaching middle of winter without a single ice day here. -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
daz_4 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What I expect to see in models when reading the MOD thread. What models are actually showing. Is it just me? -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
daz_4 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
We got a dusting on cars this morning! Truly a winter wonderland. May this "great NH profile" long continue. -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
daz_4 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Pretty sad that only thing this synoptics will deliver is little bit of wet snow. Don't really get the excitement but maybe that's just my bitter inner central european talking. -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
daz_4 replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This pattern definitely needs a kick in the teeth to actually provide some meaningful cold. It's hardly a winter wonderland anywhere in Europe now. But definitely a backtrack today regarding a split. Clicked through the GEFS and saw maybe one? -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
daz_4 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well there goes my seasonal Christmas. Would rather have zonality which would at least result in snowfall on higher grounds. What a horrible winter so far in Central Europe. -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
daz_4 replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well let's hope we get a SSW and that it propagates down in a way that benefits us. As of now that high is a reason why lot of Europe will have a very warm December (except for France, Spain and UK). It seems we will finish the year in this setup. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Had to open a beer watching that unfold. We are really cursed. This is trending the wrong way and I think it's not that good for UK as well. Where are the times where the LP was centered over Italy and then tracked NE pulling cold air behind it? Horrible horrible run. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well this looks like a repeat of what we had earlier this month. That would be another bust for my location. Hopefully you guys in UK will get something out of it. Just wondering if we ever get rid of that HP to the east. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quick glance at 12z and the pattern is, once again, too west in FI. I hope this won't verify. -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
daz_4 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Another year that confirms that it doesn't matter what background signals we have anymore. In the end the weather remains the same. -
Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well we'll need a Christmas miracle to save this December. Without it this month will end up extremely warm here in Central Europe. What good is the destroyed TPV when the end result is even worse than last year temperature wise? -
Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Exactly what I feared when ECM first showed this pattern at day 10. It gets stuck and then just fizzles out. Seems to me the next week is pretty much done deal and many places in Europe will enjoy very warm weekend. We are looking at the middle of December for any renewed interest. Deja vu really. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
daz_4 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jesus, it truly is a pain to get some cold uppers to Europe. This must be one of the most frustrating runs of all time