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daz_4

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Everything posted by daz_4

  1. daz_4
    Ironic isn't it? Finally some low pressure south of us and it will probably be for nothing.
  2. daz_4
    Oh sure, at least it feels seasonal. Should get some snowfall over weekend in my neck of the woods. Let's see what the next few days will bring. Anyway, P10 for me please though not sure you guys in UK would agree
  3. daz_4
    Sure but that surface cold in Russia is of no use to us and warmer air would probably move pretty quickly over western Europe as well. I just don't like this pattern at all That high over Russia is a winter killer.
  4. daz_4
    I don't see anything cold in this chart. I doubt this would be enough for snow in UK and majority of Europe would be very warm.
  5. daz_4
    Yep, as expected. That pattern won't bring anything good if it verifies.
  6. daz_4
    This morning's ECM shows why I don't like that evolution. The low around Biscay gets stuck as it has nowhere to go and just blasts warm air to Europe.
  7. daz_4
    Well this just shows that northern blocking is not everything. Cold locked away and I'm guessing warm air would sweep across whole Europe after this.
  8. daz_4
    There is huge spread in GEFS for Central Europe starting as soon as 72h so who knows how this will go but nothing too wintry in the works I would say. No real cold anywhere near and I don't like that high to the east. It just sits there and blocks everything.
  9. daz_4
    The gains in Barents and Kara were to be excepted I would say, strong northerly yesterday definitely helped with that. With that said the bad stuff is still coming and was always forecasted for the upcoming weekend. I'm pretty sure any gains will be wiped out by the end of this week.
  10. daz_4
    The forecast for the Atlantic front is not looking too good. If GFS is to be believed there is some pretty stormy weather ahead with strong southerly winds.
  11. daz_4
    Maybe when people were saying this winter will be front-loaded they meant front-loaded with disappointments?
  12. daz_4
    I didn't meant full blown winter, just a week long cold spell would be enough. Of course UK is almost always mild but what's happenning over the continent from middle of November to middle of December gives plenty of clues for the upcoming winter. Average November here in Central Europe with last ten days cold and wintry. The month ended with cold blast from NE.
  13. daz_4
    Could be different for UK but all the years you named had cold spell(s) in CE from 15.11. - 15.12. November 85 in particular was very cold and snowy here. So yeah, still a month to go in my opinion but I'm not holding my breath. Unless someone knows where the magic button for turning off euro heights is
  14. daz_4
    Not sure if I agree with people saying "it's only middle of November, plenty of winter left." In my experience, the next four weeks will set the tone of the winter. Winters very rarely deliver (at least in Central Europe) if there is no cold spell from middle of November to middle of December. And based on today's runs we can probably write off at least the next ten days. Not that I'm surprised. I very much doubt this winter will be different from the last seven or so.
  15. daz_4
    Well this wouldn't be a bad start at all for winter season in Central Europe.
  16. daz_4
    It's definitely March, especially now when Arctic takes long time to cool down and freeze over. There was no wintry November in the last ten years in CE (and only twice in that period was November colder than March). Meanwhile March 13 and 18 brought noteworthy winter weather.
  17. daz_4
    GFS certainly didn't hold back with Siberian blocking this evening in FI.
  18. daz_4
    Well 95/96 was pretty legendary and had very cold November and extremely cold March on top of that. Don't think that's even remotely possible in the current climate. We will be lucky to get one below average month.
  19. daz_4
    Such a waste of a perfect winter synoptics in October. This would be legendary had it happened in December. Now we just have floods which is pretty much the worst thing to get in October.
  20. daz_4
    It's struggling big time and will continue to do so. Lot of warm air over Chukchi and East Siberian Sea predicted for the next week so we can't expect much improvement.
  21. daz_4
    I hope your valley is not a smog magnet like my city. That's why I hate inversion cold. You can't do nothing outside with that cancerous air. No snow seems like a common theme with CP La Nina winters. While possible to get cold to CE, it's usually just dry (Jan 17 is another example of that).
  22. daz_4
    Ugh, I would argue 2007 was worse than 2019. Sure it was colder but no snow at all, just never ending inversion in December and winter ended at the beginning of January. Anyway how does La Nina 10-12 compares to this year? Wasn't it also fairly strong and CP during winter 10/11?
  23. daz_4
    You and me both, jules. But who knows how will it all come together in this new climate we are living in. I feel like analogues from the past provide less and less guidance in this warming world.
  24. daz_4
    I think Siberia had some good years regarding snow cover recently and it didn't help our winter at all.
  25. daz_4
    Fun times ahead! Vegetable prices are already through the roof here. And those polar plunges after early warmth will do the same for fruit. Would bet there is another one coming in May just to put the final nail in the coffin.
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