daz_4

ECM OP went little bit off rail this morning for my location.

Why would anyone be excited for a cold snap at the end of March? Thankfully this SSW didn't do much for mainlaind Europe in terms of cold (March will most probably be above average month here) and looking at models spring will now begin for real.

Yes, UK is definitely more influnced by the cold air while spring is having upper hand in Central Europe. 15C forecasted here for today. It's just interesting difference for my part of the world between ECM ENS and GFS ENS. vs.

ECM is quite consistent the last few runs with push of warm air to Europe late next week. GFS is different from 120 hours and colder. vs

Sobering to see how extensive the warm anomalies to our south and east are.

So how is that record cold breaking March coming along that MOD thread was raving about? We will see about that. March is certainly not trending cold for most of Europe so far.

Below -10 uppers here and yet it does not look really wintry outside at all. Temps safely above 0, no snow whatsoever. It's difficult to get something of note so late in the season even here in Central Europe.

Reading the mod thread one would think an ice age is coming to Europe in March

Don't really understand the desire for cold March. Even here in Central Europe you need really cold uppers to deliver something of note. The famous SSW in 2018 delivered just dull, grey and cold March with zero snow here and then we jumped straight to summer with extremely warm April and May. Though I understand that it was more interesting in UK. The last really wintry March was in 2006 with snow laying for 24 days but that's almost 20 years ago and the climate was little bit different then. I for one hope that any significant cold will miss us. Cold in March is not worth it, especially with how much heating cost nowadays.

Scorching ECM run for Europe.

As I have zero interest in cold March/April, this couldn't interest me less.

As expected, ECM already downgrading the amount of cold over Europe in short term. Two days ago Today

So April....sorry, January will continue for at least another week in mainland Europe. Not a single ice day forecasted, hardly any frost. Much colder air would be needed from NW direction to deliver something of note apart from the highest peaks. January is tracking 6-8C above average so far which is absolutely crazy.

July 2011 was below average (-1,5C) which is pretty rare nowadays. Rest of the summer was warm though. June +1,1C and August +0,6C. July 2012 was average (June and August were 1C above average). July 2014 was 1,4C (81-10) and 2,3C (61-90) above average here. That year had a cold August. I assume that temps in Germany and Austria weren't that much different.

Pretty much impossible now to have a cool summer in Central Europe. Hasn't happend in decades.

This is a view from 1300m a.s.l. in Czechia. No snow anywhere. And the forecast will make you think it's April.

Well this could be a great setup for UK, for the rest not so much. For me proper severe cold spell would be whole Europe in the freezer but looking at the GFS ENS for Central Europe, it's nothing to write home about.

Firmly believe that you can't get proper easterly into Central Europe without SSW nowadays. It will always be half baked and lasting few days at best.

Would not speak for the whole CE. There is hardly any winter to speak of in Czechia, not even in the mountains. January is 3C above average so far.

Happy new year from ECM

Seems to me like short term gain but nothing spectacular and we will lose the cold air anyways by 27th.

Jules is going to have a heart attack this morning. We went from beautiful winter nirvana in Central Europe to SW express over Christmas. Classic

First taste of winter today here in Czechia. Snowing heavily, snow is starting to settle now.

Barents and Kara should cool down nicely in the coming days.