inghams85

Looking at the Day 10 ECM it doesn't take much imagination to see where the Week 2 EC46 Greenland heights may come from 28th onwards. Upgrades short AND longer term for me

Those uppers will be better as well. GEM has a known bias with under doing the uppers

Yo momma! Bants bants bants

Agreed. Very Feb 1947 them anomalies.

What's interesting is the anomalies over the med which screams sliders/battleground. Really feels like a 47 set up

Them last 3 posts are unbelievably consice common sense posts. You did a good job in Feb/March predicting the tropospheric impacts of the last SSW so my advise is stick to what you believe is right. I think the slower downwell and tropical discrepancies are making good posters doubt themselves and that includes the MET who I believe are taking the weather models too literally and swaying within ensembles instead of using some human interpretation to second guess when some output may be wrong against background factors

What we are seeing is 3 different stages of output. Stage 1 - increased amp from tropical signals (which I think will trend further for a couple of days) toppling Greenland heights Stage 2 - Lagged effect from the displacement SSW and flushing of zonal winds (PV locating from West to east from Canada to Siberia) this is what scuppers the tropical amp because it chucks some of the PV north of us as it works across and stops the heights building in turn creating the unsettled weather met office talk about Stage 3 - This will be the lagged effect of the split and renewed Greenland ridging in behind and is when our best chance of cold n snow mid month will come

Exceptional chart that!

I agree fine margins. But get the block at a high enough latitude and we have a Greenland high northerly and Easterlies. It will slow the jet and drive split energy

It's why I'm kind of happier the split is smaller than the feb18 one. Fine margins but sets us up for less chance of a west based NAO if and when we get propagation

They will come as the models filter in the zonal winds dropping like a stone. Baby steps

That lobe of death is needed to drive WAA up the west side of Greenland! Just stop annoying people with insane analysis of charts. Your misleading newbies and it's wrong

Again look at the split of purples n build of high pressure over the pole. You do understand that or just guessing?

Are you on the wind up look at how the purples at high latitudes drain over the pole! It's ripe for high lat blocking. The best UKMO 144 I've seen in response to the SSW!

No one knows 100% what the correct path is it's the weather. But we know about weather model bias. We knew the GFS would back West with the pattern because we know how this model works and we know based on things like this and background drivers what is more likely to happen.

It gives us an idea on whether a model is incorrectly heading down the wrong pathway. The butterfly effect and all that. If we know corrections west will happen within a set timescale for instance this impacts wave breaking which impacts the type of warming and split and eventual FI of runs etc

How can they see it as a possible outcome when at that resolution they can't yet factor in changes in the tropics and stratosphere 100%? Again your taking things at face value instead of using background signals to second guess the outcome

Thers is in the ensembles. But in the operationals probably not really. Your better off looking at changes up to 168 to find trends n tie in known model bias to see a pathway. The increased amplification is a good first step. It probably ties in with the tropics which will aid the stratospheric split which will aid the chances of propogation

Why are you even so concerned about what happens in 6 days time when everyone knows nothing will happen in 6 days time. Steve is showing you the model bias that has skewed the long term runs that like a domino are leading up to a mid Jan cold spell. You are reading charts at face value and you can't do that

Both are delivering. Both have a more robust high driving better wave 2 forcing to create a better split and wintry conditions 15th onwards. Look at the bigger picture...

Long term I have to say I'm concerned at the ECM watering down the SSW and splt. Would rather this upgrading over the GFS

He's a bit more than that but it's not my place to say. Let's just say he makes a living out of meteorology

Do you have any idea who he is and what he does? Clearly not

I think a lot of this low will still undercut into the Southern arm of the jet. It's so finely poised. A forecasters nightmare but if ever models get things wrong at short notice it's with this set up. ECM around +96 will be interesting

Hahaha! I feel we may see more and more low pressure disrupt as we hit +96 hours as the models upgrade the high pressure nearer time until we see one of these dive South East and the Scandinavian high pressure build over the top giving North Easterlies