inghams85

Model Bias in all its glory. They don't deal well with wedges of high pressure near Iceland. There's a lack of observation data in this region. We can't right this slider off yet

Things on track from what I posted 5 days ago. I expected a battleground snow event then north easterly followed by Northerly as a second round of retrogression kicks in back end of the first week of December

As expected more upgrades. Just an adjustment in the models known bias. Ignore the ensembles there worth nothing in this type of synoptic. The models traditionally struggle with split energy. If it's got it wrong at 120 it's got it wrong at 320. Watch the ensembles fall into line.

As stated last night expect upgrades as the models tropical bias wanes. Sometimes it's about second guessing the models rather than reading them at face value. My opinion is we start with a battleground snow event followed by north east then northerly winds

Absolutely agreed mate. Far too many taking models at first value rather than factoring in some more background and tropical signals. Im confident.

I never said it was who's analysis is longest I'm just giving my opinion. I'm sure catacol and Tamara/GP would have something more to add to this but my opinion is charts this time next week will look very different as the models aren't factoring in the tropical changes just yet. We'll just have to see.

@feb1991blizzard this sums things up what I'm saying. The NOAA are excellent at not taking things at face value. They also anticipate the same MJO activity I do. It's a watching brief mate

This backs up what I mean. Concentrate on this timeframe. If the tropics weren't looking so good on the face of things I would always wager the clusters but I think we'll see the extended ensembles swing closer to timeframe to more and more blocked outlooks

GEFS have a bias to underdo the tropical signals and they show a marked rise. ECM is also conservative with these but not mas much. Both are poor in relative terms at that timescale. The best forecasters are us who read between the lines. What normally happens is closer to time these will factor in. I'll wager that clustering come 240 features more of a griveland high.

You have nothing to worry about with that clustering at 360. Almost 50% of the clusters go for some type of Scandinavian heights. With the huge climb in AAM and the MJO (as shown by NOAA) about to move into an highly amplified phase 7 or 8 I'd bet deeds to my house that first cluster will not come to pass. ECM is poor at picking up tropical signals. Patience is needed but for me the beginning of December and especially the middle look extremely positive to me. Steve Murr has called these correct. Oscillating Greenland/Scandinavian heights...

MJO now showing its move into Phase7. The stratospheric winds drop around the 24th. All now coming into view and upgrades to follow in higher res. As Steve says JMA/UKMO/FV3 about to be slowly joined by ECM. Tomorrow's runs will be very interesting

This is what I'm expecting around this time frame...

Eyes are drawn to Greenland around T-300. This is now the timescale for me for real cold and Greenland Heights. Ties in with the anomalies shown two days ago

Of course it's just a forecast and just my opinion John. Convection is due to crank up in the Central Pacific and move West. If I was being completely honest with lag I would suggest MJO to affect nearer the second week of December but what we see manifest is a slow down in zonal winds and a displacement of the PV to Siberia. The MJO just consolidates this signal on top the week after if anything

See GP's post this morning this is due to change in the week 2 forecast. Phases 7/8 will be reflected in time

Ignore the ECM for worldie charts. Last week into first week of December has always been signposted. This before hand is just a bonus. That is a 360 hour mean chart and is exactly the time frame we should be getting excited about. It comes about due to a combination of MJO 7/8/1 phases and the lag effect on the strat due to the current Scandinavian record breaking heights initiating record breaking wave breaking. It basically creates a vacuum for Greenland heights.

We'll put. I would say though some of your statements are posted with too much confidence or certainty on this subject considering the lack of scientific proof. Your language should always reflect this or it just comes across as misleading

It's not a "massive probability" though is it if you take time to look at the clusters? Worst case scenario is a delay of the deep cold by 2 or 3 days before the high builds north again. It's a probability but it's a "tiny" probability.

Name me one "scientist" with a peer reviewed paper proving AGW doesn't exist? There aren't any because AGW is proven and is widely accepted and has been for years hence worldwide government's spending billions to augment it. Just accept it and do your bit to help the planet instead of causing everybody more issues

There are no scientists or experts who do not agree. Just under qualified sensationalist who post fake news. To be taken in by that is rediculous at best

You can differ all you want. Your not a acclaimed climate scientist. I'd prefer to listen to evidence provided by experts. You aren't an expert as much as you seem to think you are

The runs come to an end. Care to elaborate?

The fact is all those predictions from GW have come true

The whole point is there is NOTHING to discuss. Man made climate change is proven 1000 times over so there's no debate to even be had. The quicker you realise that the quicker we don't have to listen to the conspiracy rubbish hour posting. Anyway this thread like you say isn't for this so it's my last message on the subject.

It is 100% proven and your in denial. The world's smartest scientist don't sit down with the world leaders saving the planet on something that isn't. It's like saying the ocean isn't made up of water and I'm going to deliberately argue the fact it's not without any basis just because theres nothing you can do about me disagreeing. It's so rediculous that at times I think people even question replying to your pathetic trolling tbh