sorepaw1

This chart below is nothing new it's been showing for several days now. The only difference to see is this size of the high pressure rising to 1050mb. Which if it pulls of would be slow and stubborn to shift... these are the types of high pressures I like to see and the formation of the Greenland high. Happy model watching it has been a trend on the last few runs and the High pressure seems to be growing in MB.

I'd be willing to put my neck on the line and say widespread snow showers moving well inland are a real possibility for next weekend. Given that today's 06z is nothing new this scenario was a trend last week for GFS to show a North Easterly for next weekend..emphasis on trend........... I would show other models and go into great detail but I'm keeping it short but sweet for all members meteorological knowledge.

I take the models with a pinch of North sea salt.... the GFS in winter reminds me of a girlfriend I once had after she'd had 8 pints of Stella. On a serious note it's was suggested earlier that their was consistency on all models to T+132/144hr ...

Past T+144 hrs GFS... as we know has a different run every 6 hours. Last Thursday the 12z looked quite stunning for cold lovers. Then the 18z came and gave us bikini bottoms on Brighton beach... GFS has had a trend to give us a Greenland HP. But wants to give us what seems a weak LP to go with it and next to it and then to go on to develop the LP .... there has been a trend to diminish rising HP over Greenland by GFS. But seems reasonably <<< consistent to T+120hrs/144hr... Even though tonight's 18z GFS is not what some people wanted to see. It's the same feeling I get when I see a man's hairy cleavage .yuk. lol

In the shorter term this Sunday night coming looks cold with early frost forming -6.oC for central and southern England possibly colder further north in the Glen's and rural areas of Northern England It will help to get the soil temps down.

GFS chart at today's 12z at T+120hrs. Then chart below taken from January 1963. couldn't help notice similarities. From Wednesday I expect the roads to be covered in grit . Looking forward to the high pressure setting in midweek . Looking towards T+144/204. Northerly or Easterly will do.... In order to get there we may have to put up with a brief cool S Easterly possibly.

Thought I'd post this i can't buy you all a pint so I'll give you this ..deepest FI but just to give us all a well deserved grin. Look how many cold low pressure systems dotted about and alot of Europe covered.. has the French ski resorts ever been closed because of heavy snow. ;-)

Dear Mods I've been trying to post a PPN chart from GFS. It says please contact us ie. Netweather. Sorry to post here I'm fairly new to this site and never seen this message before. Sorry guys to interrupt the thread.

Looking forward to high pressure midweek onwards .lol

I thought this was an interesting chart taken from the 12z GFS. Shows cold orientation of high pressure to the west and East and a weakening low over Greenland. Within realms of expectation too.

Current temperature 3.oC. light rain heavier ppn 24miles south of me moving North. I'll be still up to see the 00z roll out at this rate. Lol.

I'll try thanks currently 03:12am I'm going to drive inland now. I'll give a further report in 10mins.

Snow now becoming light/moderate. Thick cloud cover still 2.oC. Snow blowing in the wind but not settling... I'm going to drive on a remote road 5 miles inland and 77ft higher in elevation. Still within north Yorkshire.

Currently 2.oC. elevation of 412ft asl. Location staxton wold North Yorkshire. I'm bang on the leading edge of the storm.

Currently 2.oC. light snow

I know it's a long shot but is anyone experiencing any Hail or thunder yet. I know must members are in bed now. I'm still dry here but icy wind increasing.

You may find raintoday.co.uk useful For your location if I have it right in about 1hr 20mins.

Still dry here but icy wind increasing quite a noticeable windchill. Raintoday intensifying ppn in some southern counties.

I'm currently out in my car temperature currently reading 0.c. MB dropping noticed ppn 38miles south of my mobile location. My location been staxton wold North Yorkshire. I'd be on the leading edge of any ppn and sat at 412ft asl. The storm ppn seems to be taking a more northerly track going by raintoday.co.uk at 23:00hrs to current 01:00. I was expecting a North Easterly track.

Looking forward to this winter .I' have a specially designed 2 din lcd stereo Internet based running of a windows based software. We're I link local and national weather data to my software . I'm currently sat in my subaru forester. At staxton wold relaying raintoday GFS and ECM data and talking to you guys.. It seems a marvel compared to me looking at fax charts in the Yorkshire post in 1984. At 8 years old. And asking mother sorepaw for 20pence lol. Very good input tonight from all you guys as always. I'm going to use the necessary thread to post during the night on data from this storm I observe in my location.

It looks as though the storm ppn is heading up the spine of the uk at current 22.00hrs to 00:15hrs. I can't post the runs due to copyright. But can supply wwwraintoday.co.uk. I think there is a thread for this just noticed sorry

Today's GFS 06z...12z..18z..upto T+162hrs are very similar to each other. Then similar to T+172hrs then the HP falling further south after T+192 hrs... I think it's very promising upto 162hrs. I suspect early hours the 00z. GFS Will be different again and 06z to follow. If we keep a consistant HP upto T+162 over the uk with a slow push further north on each run . I think this will significantly alter the T+204hr into the same pattern as today's 06z... just a thought... Personally I think the HP moving North upto T+168hrs is a more likely out come ..I'm holding out for the next few days and paying particular interest in T+120hrs to T+144/162hrs.

This is one thing I've never really understood why does HP over the uk dominantly/ or have aTendency to sink south East and hardly NW. I understand the coriolis effect for the Northern Hemisphere and the teleconnetics till I'm blue in the face.. There's a clear example on todays's 12z past T+144hrs.... I' maybe overlooking something quite simple..... Keeping it straight forward for everyone to understand I'd like your ideas and input from anyones level of degree or knowledge or theories.

If the T+312 hrs chart came off I'd expect scenes like this across North Yorkshire. Leading up to T+216 hrs several days of settled weather with patchy fog and frost but crisp clear mornings away from eastern coasts. And frost forming by Dusk.

I was thinking similar. With warmer sea Temps in the north Sea and with the high pressures position could provide some snow to eastern areas. The reason I say this is because in 1995 I remember a similar set up to the current 06z GFS at T+162 hrs. Back in 1995 we had a similar high pressure drawing in an Easterly wind and the North Sea temperature was around 9.oc. For the eastern side of Northern England we had 3 days of heavy snow which up till T+92 hrs wasn't forecast .25 miles inland was just a dusting of snow. But eastern areas close to the coast have 19"inches That year produced some of the biggest snow flakes I've ever seen even to date.