sorepaw1

There's some pretty impressive photos on Google images of tan hill inn In winter.

I'm heading to the north Yorkshire moors tops this evening with my subaru forester.. and camera. It's just up the road from me. Temperature falling away quite quickly now.

I'm going there just after Xmas for a few days.

Taken from the 06z at T+216hrs. High pressure to the north of the uk feeding an Easterly low pressure to the south. It wouldn't be a suprise if parts of the south have some wintery ppn from this set up a cool Easterly bumping into a much colder Easterly. I may have the wrong handle on this .

Is this the second spell of potent weather for the uk for next Tuesday showing on the 06z. It wasn't showing on the 00z. But was on last night's 18z. Has the potential for heavy rain sleet Hail and winteryness and strong gusty winds. Feeling quite raw I'd imagine .

One to Watch for you guys in Northern Ireland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Wintery showers feeding in from the north a strong possibility . I see you have thundery Hail sleet and snow showers forecast for your area this afternoon and evening...

Thought I'd post this chart for next Tuesday night.. possible chance of something wintery on this for NE England the Midlands and parts of the south. Strong and blustery winds at least feeling quite raw in the wind i reckon.

I'd of loved to have seen any of tonight's 18z in FI last December. On that note I'm off to bed with my coco and cigarette. Goodnight folks.

Good luck.. but you >>>won't <<<< need it.lol.

I hope your right. Even though the dew points you have shown don't support snow to lower levels in the heaviest showers I'd expect Hail to fall and a mixture of snow rain and sleet to fall. But generally rain to lower levels in the south. But I agree to your post to a point thank you for input.

The chart below taken from the 12z GFS shows quite a intense area of low pressure with squally ppn. With a squally mix of rain sleet Hail and snow to any level imo Let's see what the 18z shows.

2010 I had 16" of snow I live in a very remote part of North Yorkshire 500ft asl. And drive a subaru forester AWD . Just fitted 4 snow tyres to it. 4 wheel drive is a must in this part of Yorkshire.... my neighbours have just bought a BMW ..ohhhhhh no. I bet they sell it next year. Lol. I can guarantee a white Xmas only because Mrs sorepaw said the bark on the silver birch tree in the garden has gone pure white which means a harsh winter it did it in December 2010.

I think your going to be quids in. Beers on you then lol

Current 06z GFS is showing this chart below. Which could result in the other picture been a scene across the northern parts of the country but not exclusively. In heavier ppn snow could fall to lower levels . The showers will be squally hence imo the unpredictably of them.

Sincere apologies Frosty I'm using a smart phone and it's my mistake. I'm looking forward to Sundays weather I'm taking the 06z GFS with a pinch of salt after T+144hrs to T+204hrs. I think which ever way the models suggest either cold/cooler/ or mild there's some interesting weather to be had. i think that stubborn high pressure over the Russian regions will throw a few suprises in the weather for the uk .whether it be as I say cool cold or milder. It could take weeks for that Russian high to dissipate . And until it does the weather for the UK could go from one extreme to another.

It has to snow I've got Mrs sorepaws housekeeping money on it on a 4/1.

Nice chart could end up a battleground situation there.

Currently showing on the 00z at T+192 hrs.. Notice how tight the isobars and wind direction and the high and low pressure placements at 192 hrs. I consider that not to be far from a guidance time frame. I'd like to go into more detail and post upto T+204hrs. But I have to set off for work and scrape ice off my subaru forester lol. But I'm sure they'll be lots to talkabout this morning.

I see Oldham on the rainfall radar currently -2.oc here . I might see Hill snow as that band of heavy rain pushes East meeting colder air. Big if though . I'm up early for work finish at 9am so not so bad.lol 00z. Is churning out looks like a bit of an upgrade up to T+162 hrs.so far.

Just heavy drizzle here in North East Yorkshire 500ft asl and no snow. We had more snow on Monday when snow wasn't forecast. It just feels like a typical autumn morning tbh.

Good evening all. I'm expecting this post to get moved. As I need some help finding regional forecasts. I've had Hail and snow showers on and off all afternoon and have pics. I'm using a smart phone. And I'm newish to the this impressive site. I have over 30 years forecasting experience and remember the winters of 1981. 1987.1991.1995. 2010..if I can add that in most of these years winter started early November .today's 12z gfs is a typical run not boring by any means. If we're all honest 1 month ago none off us would of expected a met office warning for heavy snow in early November . It only seems a few days ago I was basking in my back garden and getting my beer belly sun burnt drinking strong Dutch beer and insulting the neighbours lol.

Most of November's charts have been interesting imo from gfs. If you like cool/ colder conditions. Last night's 18z.. and this mornings 00z. Are cracking for cold potential. We may have to put up with a cool brief westerly that gets dismissed quite readily. Before we get to the much colder conditions. Much past T+144hrs. Is hit and miss but it seems colder weather looks more dominant since the 31st of October on gfs. This time last year we was wearing shorts with our wellies. Well not quite but you know what I mean.

Hail and snow showers where I live in the last hour. Temperature dropping very quick as we head towards Dusk. Nice looking set of charts today if you like cool/ colder conditions. I'm expecting a covering of snow by the morning. Sorry if I've posted in the wrong thread. I live on high ground in North Yorkshire.

I live 534ft asl in North Yorkshire .and studied charts for 30years .my subaru forester is booked in for winter tyres normally I wait till December to have them fitted. Off topic sorry. But I'm not going to underestimate these set of charts. I've been monitoring the situation for several days now.