sorepaw1

Haven't seen any charts or model data for 2 days ...currently snowing here quite heavy 5cm And showers forecast all night.untill 11am Monday. Anyhow what a turn around looking at the 18z in my neck of the woods March can be the worst winter month for drifting snow on higher routes near me. I would be interested to see the18z this Friday coming.if All stays similar. I think there's going to be some pleasant surprises for cold lovers. Please don't confuse this post as a ramp. And I will be looking forward to seeing a mild or warm spring and summer.

Heavy snow showers here all day currently 5cm. And showers forecast all night.untill 11pm Monday. Sorry folks tried to upload photos.

I haven't yet taken my winter tyres of my subaru Forester,and certainly looking at the latest charts. I don't plan to . Living on the north east coast it gets bitter here and the open roads get blocked by drifting snow nearly every winter .

I don't post often. I've studied charts for 30 Years .I Remember forecasting before the Internet. I have my own basis for modern day chart analysis. I have thousands of chart runs saved .and I ghost hundreds a day from past and present it gives me accurate information as best as I can get it up to 12 days. I created my own forecasts. To be fair today's GFS 12z isn't that far out from my own predictions . I occasionally forecast for BBC Radio Humberside, sorry if I don't reply to questions, What I would say is an Easterly wind at the month end is highly likely and with a warmer than average North Sea could produce disruptive wintery weather. I'd like to be more bold in my forecasting but from experience 2 or more meteorologists will never agree And I won't engage myself in heated debates I'll leave that to others. To the snow starving lovers down south don't put your sledges back in the garage yet. It's been 25 Years since I've seen daffodils in lying snow. Keep a keen eye on the coming days upto T+192hrs.

Snow here on and off all day.some Showers quite heavy.

Looking at the 12z certainly some cold nights and days but very little snow fall ,with the pending easterly a few light flurries in the east maybe,slightly warmer than average North sea this year.

Interesting to note the North sea is temp is at 7.oc. So any North sea showers will fall as sleet and rain near east facing coasts, I haven't read a post yet mentioning this, the showers as they move inland will turn more to snow, This isn't a moan just an observation.

Over the last few hours My iPad air has melted it's just a pool of plastic. With ,Looking at the above posts and current models. And looking at the rainfall radar,and the bbc weather and the news.its to much for me lol. I can't keep up. I would say,"by next weekend we could have and easterly formed or forming. The 12z looks very good imo. With that high pressure over the uk ,it will be a good chance to reset my grandmothers barometer.

I think people now are just waiting till tomorrow,and waiting the 12z and 18z, even the bbc aren't going beyond Thursday in there forecasts locally to me, it looks like blindfolded darts imo in the forecast, it's goi to be cold windy and snowy it's just where when and how much ,Im struggling to be honest ,and so are the professionals, things to me seem very up in the air the 12z will be different to the 06z, Nina ridge for the bbc seems very clear on the week ahead weather.

Hi your not far from me ,looking good for our location for wintery weather if you like it,I live in Bridlington hope to test out my Subaru AWD lol.

After T+48 hrs is when you nice folk down south will see the showers of sleet and snow.if I lived down south I wouldn't be disappointed by what the current models are showing I think for those who prefer winters weather will see at least 3cm even to lower levels by Friday night, Margate and Kent areas look good for heavier showers by Saturday,.

I think Ian and other forecasters are really earning there money this week,I'm sure he'll find the time to post here and have a pint with us,

I'm happy about the potential for this Saturday given my north east location. But also worried the NHS won't be able to cope with this cold spell as my local Hospital is turning non urgent operations away.and A+E is at breaking point back on topic.i would say Saturday looks epic for snow along the eastern side of the uk imo.

This cold snap was always going to be short lived.i read a reference to someone comparing it to 2010.in 30 years of forecasting. Unless we get a blocking high pressure at or above 1055mb in either Greenland or a scandi high.we won't get a prolonged period of snowy cold weather.we can look at all computer data and models till we are blue in the face.but in my experience that's the basic principles of a prolonged period of cold weather . I'm looking forward to seeing 4 days of snow showers all the same.i will update this post tonight when I get back to my ipad at home.

I will stick my new reputation on the line and say virtually everywhere by next Sunday will have experienced snow to lower levels and don't forget the wind strength which there should be some impressive drifting off snow.to exposed hills and open low lying fields,this isn't a ramp it's based on previous experience with this current chart set up and what the models are showing.i don't really like to forecast snow even this close but to me it seems inevitable imo,and that's all it is..it's worth watching Nina ridge weather presenter on the bbc iplayer website

Interesting post that would be nice if it tracked North east,and with weaker low pressures to the north it carries potential to do so

In most cases we need a stubbon 1050mb scandi high or a similar Greenland high for a traditional widespread snow event ,but there are exceptions to this rule,one been higher pressure near Canada,but years of chart watching this coming event seems quite unique to my study and I can't pin point a resolution to be honest to explain myself better ,maybe I should only post with a clearer picture for people but that's what makes this site friendly and useful to read and post,to be honest given the outlook for next Thursday on the 18z I've be very surprised not to be actively using my Subaru AWD,in deep snow given my geographical location ,

On the current 18z at and beyond T+108 hrs what sort of wind speeds are we talking ,I would estimate 35mph,with gusts of 60mph which would cause significant drifting imo,is that a conservative reckoning .

The charts are looking good around T+144 hrs ,may I also add there is still a good 6" covering of snow on higher routes near me with little thaw of late.

Hi milhouse I have relations in your village,I live in bridlington ,I've forecasted weather for 30years, next week is looking good for us for snow,as the easterly develops, I take your point about the high pressure moving south, but the 18z tonight is cracking imo, I think we may see a prolonged cold spell,even if we get a westerly airflow it's by no means mild imo, given its origin in the 18z.,Take care regards Steve from bridlington.

Pretty good looking charts of late, I'm going camping next week on the North Yorkshire moors lol. Taking my Subaru AWD legacy ,and my iPad,for more avid chart watching and rainfall radar, Eastern England looking good for snow from possibly Tuesday night into Wednesday,,and beyond imo, I would say pretty much anywhere could see snow next week,and even my southern friends in snow starved London will see a Good covering.,the website I'm looking at for GFS a, isn't going passed T+150 hrs., Sorry of topic point taken,.

Looking at current models mainly the GFS 18z Next Thursday could see a stormy period with squally wintery showers affecting some southern areas.and also eastern England in particular with gusts around 70mph on high ground and exposed coastlines. Certainly interesting model watching within T+144 hrs too.take care on your travels today and over the weekend.

apparently in 1947 farmers were told to expect a mild winter by weather experts this almost crippled Britain with the loss of dairy animals sheep etc .Just after the war too .These were very hard times. I remember my grandmother saying she was melting snow for cooking and washing as pipes had frozen.she said the weather was wet and windy before.the snow came.

I used to look at the coldswell GFS charts what happened to them or does anyone know a link where I can view the same runs .I'm using various chart models at the moment including weather online. I think we need a lot more high pressure north of the uk to give us a decent cold spell.there seems to be a lot of low pressure activity around Greenland and to the east of the uk. I can't remember seeing this much low activity in recent years of computer model watching. I stand to be corrected of course.

I live on the North East coast .would I be right in saying that there is also a spring tide due at the same time as this deep low on the 27th onwards.if so I know people who have just got there property repaired after last December's storm surge. Sorry if I've posted in the wrong thread wasn't sure where to ask with me been new on here . Regards Steve from Bridlington.