Sperrin
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Posts posted by Sperrin
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Thats just passing through here now, very strong winds and torrential rain to begin with. Had a look out there and definitely getting a bit sleety and feeling much colder than even half an hour ago.
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4 hours ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:
I have zero expectations of anything white for my location Mountain, @Sperrin should do ok though . Tell you what though its getting very breezy out there atm
Fingers crossed Pom! Was out for a walk round the lough there before the rain started and wind would have cut you in two it was that cold. Hopefully a sign of things to come if even colder weather is to follow. In fact, there were some light snow flakes amongst the rain earlier.
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Things must be looking good as we (in NI) got a mention around snow chances on Sunday night!! Havent paid much attention but pulled up the euro4 model there and its showing snow hitting donegal hard and moving east at 3pm tomorrow right through to Sunday evening!! Is this way off? I remember it being quite a reliable model.
Edit: just watched BBC news weather and there's no chance of snow tomorrow afternoon, euro4 obv had too much vino today!
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Hard to tell where we stand in Ireland following the mod thread as only one wee corner of the British Isles matters!!
Anyone want to make a call about our potential over the weekend into next week?
Here's a snapshot of the gfs 12z, is this a pretty interesting wave forming over NI on Monday evening on that low pressure dropping from the North????
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Santa baby a GEFS snow row like this under the tree...for me!!
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It seems the typical collapse of North Atlantic heights is about to happen again - though, to be fair, the models had a sniff of this quite some way out. It's always interesting to compare progression from T240 down to T0 - currently Christmas Day is around T168 (which is still too far out to call), but look at how the GFS/ECM ops have done so far for modelling it:
GFS Tuesday vs latest run
vs
ECM Tuesday vs latest run
vs
Absolutely typical - the models corrected the Atlantic low up to 1000 miles east between T240 and T168.
However, something else is also typical - the models have corrected the new Atlantic low so much that Atlantic heights remain in situ, leading to the possibility of a second bite at the cherry a few days later. This morning's ECM clusters between T192 and T240 show a good number of ensembles going for the super-Scandi low plus super-Atlantic high.
Either way, it's going to get messy from 24th December onwards. Probably good for snow on Northern and Western hills - for coldies at sea level, enough to keep us interested, though it's starting to look like any potential snow may not be possible on Christmas Day itself.
Still a bit to go, though!
Looking at the synoptic outputs, EC and GFS do 'seem' to be playing around with upper air patterns that are not dissimilar to the predicted 500 mb patterns on my oft used 500 mb anomaly charts. Some kind of upper flow from a noth of west direction with surface devlopments changing the direction of flow, but overall the flow is likely to be from north of west. Just what the actual surface pattern will be on any particular time in the next 4-5 days is far from clear. Enjoy the ride those that so enjoy times like this with the possibility of cold and snow, even if it does not happen. For those, perhaps new to this 'mad house' take time to discover how to 'read' the charts and posters angle on them. It will turn colder after the weekend. I suspect with a ridge which tends to suggest mostly dry weather but I could be wrong!
In amongst the hyperbole and petty squabbles there are some really interesting posts. I always pay close attention to @Man With Beard and @johnholmes and I note they've both mentioned the possibility of interest from a NW flow. Always good for us guys out west and I'll not complain too much if those suggestions become a reality.
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It certainly was an enjoyable read tonight @Rocheydub! The Gefs haven't fully updated yet on meteoceil but check out how tight the ensembles are for Christmas day for Omagh. Almost certain to have, at least, cold air for the big day with a chance of seeing some of the white stuff!
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43 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
Certainly are looking good, different view here:
(These are for my location - colder further north!)
Does anyone have a link to these charts please?
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Some interest starting to build around the big day...has been an increase in the snow row for Omagh from the GFS 0z to 6z. Nothing major but still hanging in the game by our fingernails.
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Feels really cold here still, that band is going to hit me in next half an hour. Working from home today so the teams meeting may be abandoned. Snow affecting the signal!!
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@mountain shadow do you think we'll see an increase in shower intensity during the night? Is it me or so Showers not seem to penetrate in land as much when they're coming from a more northerly direction?
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3 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:Arome 0z
Yorkshire might well get a nice snowy surprise over 200m i reckon !
Is that the same system that passed through Ireland during the night?
There must have been a pretty intense fall as there is about an inch and a half of snow on the car.
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7 minutes ago, Donegal said:
Nice Sperrin enjoy. What's your altitude?
Cheers!! Nothing major, around 180ms or so. However, we always seem to do really well in these set ups. Showers usually still have a lot of intensity when coming in from the NW.
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Wee bonus snowman before school!!
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I was woke by one of the kids at 2.30am and there must have been a very heavy fall around 2am as it was completely white outside. Bit of a thaw since but I just took this there now.
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Snowing heavy here now!!
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I'm saying no more lads, the legal order forbids it
Definitely cooled down a good bit outside, hopefully see some flurries later on.
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Cheers @mountain shadow!!
Doesn't feel cold enough for snow outside at the minute but the blinds will be up this evening. Upside is I might catch some snow falling, downside is neighbour will be accusing me of flashing her (again!!)
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Well lads, like a bad smell I'm lingering around, came out of hibernation when I saw an increase in model talk coming through on Twitter!
Haven't paid much attention to tomorrow night so fill me in...you think we'll see some action?!
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Heavy snow here now!
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Full on Blizzard here!!!!
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@Weegaz what was the site that let you see radar further out into Atlantic? Be interesting to see that.
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36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Radar looking increasingly good for NI ( West ideally )
Looking very beefy out to our west now. Showers almost moving directly west to east.
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I stayed awake til 12.45am but gave up as there was no sign of wintriness at all. Woke to find a significant fall in the early hours. Really surprised!
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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
I've got planes, trains and automobiles on here and am in prime position with curtains opened and street light in sight!!