Day 10

Second half of the GFS 6z just a tad chilly!

TEITS Not half! Absolute belter!

Morning all. The Met update - Tues 6th - Thurs 15th Most likely unsettled at first for much of the UK. Turning colder across northern areas with showers, which will turn wintery at times especially over higher ground but to lower levels at times too. Cloud and rain being pushed in from the Atlantic may well be forced to track further south across the south of the country where it may remain milder but with more persistent rain, especially in the west. Exactly where the boundary between these two regimes lies is still rather uncertain at the moment. However, there is a chance of wintery conditions developing more widely across the northern edge of this boundary through the second half of next week for a time. A couple of charts from the latest GFS & ECM. A perfect illustration of how difficult the up and coming cold spell is going to be forecast, someone could well end up with a few days of snowfall here. Obviously this will chop and change quite a bit yet but this looks far more interesting than the last cold spell.

WillinGlossop Amazing pics there Will Rush2019 You need to get your toy snowman & penguin out for good luck

In the words of the Weakest Link BANK!

Had Worse Have done, can't get it out of my head now

Had Worse

Still bags of interest for our neck of the woods by mid next week, could be rain, could be snow, could be both.

Rush2019 Heavy rain here last hour, horrible.

Really interesting period could be on the horizon, still looking 6/7th Feb. Lows swinging in off the Atlantic into fairly cold air pushing down from the north, looks a fascinating setup.

Pretty below average again @Chris.R Good timing for the next cold shot.

Another one for the ninth. Are the air masses going to collide in Feb? ECM has toyed with similar recently and then dropped it, something is stirring.

@WillinGlossop Lol, I did that once. Put way too much food out, next thing about 100 starlings invaded the garden, chaos! @Had Worse It's all wrong isn't it. I'm all for the nice weather...... in April.

This kind of setup has peaked my interest. Changes to current crap mild conditions and more akin to Spring can do one, it's looking more and more like the 6th of Feb-ish for signs of Winter once more. Spring should be Spring and not in flaming January!

GFS

ECM

Morning guys & gals! Looks like our next cold chase is off and running... Just a couple of charts from this morning showing the vortex finally vacating Greenland, leaving the door open once again for cold. Still looking around about a week or so into Feb I reckon. Winter certainly doesn't look over to me. GFS & ECM Have a great weekend!

Prefer being able to see the quoted text or a portion of it tbh.

@Backtrack I'll counter that and say, round 2 of Winter from about the second week of Feb.

Missed lol. That's me done, back in a week or so.

The signal appears to be slowly gathering pace. Having a break from it all after tonight/the morning until the mild spell blows out.

The next chance looks to be a possible Scandinavian block forming, ushering a potential easterly during Feb. The GEM & GFS control have something like this from this morning.... And now the GFS is at least having a go. All way out in FI at the mo but that's what could crop up next in terms of cold chances.

Is the GFS going down the GEM & Control route from this morn?

Need them to start blowing up a bit.

Anything that falls will certainly stick around. This Evening and Tonight: A scattering of snow showers in the south on Thursday evening. These dying out overnight and then remaining dry. Temperatures quickly plummeting after sunset with a widespread and severe frost developing. Risk of icy stretches and freezing fog patches. Minimum temperature -5 °C.