[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

14 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Latest ECM in the latter stages showing some serious heat building over Iberia and N Africa. Proper furnace heat that would equal records broken in NW Canada recently. If that spreads north and materialises, then who knows, stranger things could happen in this mysterious year. 

Its time this part of the Northern Hemisphere had a serious heatwave affecting West Europe something prolonged and long lasting that will hit news headlines. Everywhere else in the world seems to get their fair share of heatwaves all except this climate

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Little sign of anything Summerlike in the latest GFS. I really dont see where our first 30C of the year will be coming from in this set up. Disgusting temperatures for the middle of July. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

I have a small feeling the Atlantic wont last very long and heights will rise sooner than later and erase that pesky little trough quicky as a rubber can erase 'trough' written in pencil.  And latest pub run GFS doesnt look bad later on either. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

I've remained positive so far this summer but recent model output is doing its very best to kill my positive optimism. The first ten days of July is looking like a total write off in my opinion and i kinda know in the back of my mind that any Azores ridging will just continously keep being pushed back until it never happens.  It will be dreadful to have to start reading posts writing off summer 2021 while in middle of July still stuck and blocked in a trough. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

GFs 6z is another dreadful run, northern blocking looking like it wants to get comfy in its usual place

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

The ECM is so laughable , you gotta love that blob of green snot catapulting itself right across the Atlantic only for it to halt bang slap right over the UK next Tuesday and stay there for god knows how long. 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

Bet those summer lovers living in Scotland are happy to see next weeks N/S split roadshow getting in full swing but with a clumsy topsy turvy twist.. Now they can spend a few days laughing at Londoners stuck in mid teens while its mid 20s scorching in glorious costa del Scotland.. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

19 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Just as the GFS changes its mind again  the 00z was pretty unsettled during the second half of next week and the 12z looks horrible past 174hrs and at 240hrs it's game over. I love your optimism but the models are really struggling with the cutoff lows. We see charts of boiling heat interspersed with green blobs deluge patterns.

Yes its really goes down hill beyond 174. Good job its in FI. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

ECM looks wet for those living in the South but dryer and warmer further North you go especially for Scotland, but hey ho how often do those in South enjoy sun and warmth in Summer while Scotland is always influenced from low pressure. 

GFS cant make up its mind if it wants a heatwave or stick a trough over head. 

UKMO "likely" a ridge will build from the East in their latest 10 day trend. 

 

Who should we trust? 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Vile Ecm 

21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The ECM 12z operational looks all white to me! .. ....being serious though it looks warm next week, according to the 850’s?...so it will feel like summer! even by day 10 it still looks warm.  

 

The ECM 12z is dreadful. Put away your  polish

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

JMA screenshots of July and August taken from Gavs weather videos latest JMA update.

I'd say high pressure is ruling the entire Northern hemisphere for the whole of July and Aug this summer all apart from one lucky recipient who remains stuck under a trough

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

I think an improvement for end of July is on the cards this little trough isnt going to last long - GEM ensembles for my area 850s is pretty much above average and stays there right to the end of the run 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

100 days!!! which model are they looking at then I'd like to know

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

1995 anyone?

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

GFS is drunk. its always on the midnight run when it churns out a run like this.  Will be sober by morning.  

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

Dont worry soon be winter endless mild warm days as a blob of orange snot anchors itself over the country while the whole of Europe freezes 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Next weeks exciting 3pm temps for a late June afternoon.  Woopy woo 

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

I think its normal for this time of year to be troughed. Our equivalent to the Indian Monsoon - "return of the westerlies".   Quite a few hot members in the ensembles from GEM and GFS for later in the month going above 18C. 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

32 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

It’s almost certainly won’t come off like that. Dartboard low over the country while everywhere house has high-pressure? Very unlikely to come off like that. Especially if it’s sustained for more than a couple of days. Worst case scenario for sure. That said the GFS also threw out a similar worst case scenario run the other day with “green snot” anchored over the country.

I think this will verify. Almost every GFS run for the past umpteen days has focused on a splash of green snot perfectly aligning itself right over the country. A lot of the other models don't look pretty either. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Not sure if this means anything or boosts chances for a warmer dryer summer but Quasi Biennial Oscillation is currently in an Easterly phase.  Summer 2018 was in an Easterly QBO phase. 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Looks like a massive thunderstorm system across the Bay of Biscay and moving slowly inland towards Nantes now.  This is about 400 miles away, so my guess is its at least 12 or so hours away. The south coast might start to see distant flashing in the late evening, and London will probably start to see something before dusk. the main bulk of storms will probably hit us while we are sleeping.

Another storm system further down in central spain, but thats probably too far away to make an impact.

We fly down to Murcia for holidays sometimes, but wouldn't want to be flying over that right now lol.

Cant see anything that suggests a massive thunderstorm on the lightning maps but there is a small yellow blob moving North which probably wont even make it to the South coast

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

GFS rolling out only 60% done and so far looks identical to the 12z, nothing else but big green blob closing over the UK next weekend. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

GFS 12z not a single sight of green snot anywhere else in the NH but then just as one blob clears incomes another to replace it.  Would be very unfortunate if this run verified and dampened the positive July outlook.  I think its just an outlier. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

2 hours ago, Downburst said:

Look how warm the Arctic circle gets on the ECM. 

Is that another summer omega block with UK well and truly stuck on the wrong side of it as per usual

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

Tomorrow my weather app is just 17C here while 29C in London. I've never seen such a big contrast in such a short distance.  BBC news will probably run the usual "hottest day of the year" stories with pictures of kids playing in water fountains and adults eating ice cream while those outside London wonder what all the fuss is about