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Fourty Point Three Degrees

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Posts posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I often wonder if models were showing this kind of flip flopping right before the heat waves of July and Aug 2003..
    I cant say that every model and every run along with every ensemble member was showing severe heat right out from 10 days earlier and counting it right down from T300 to T0, the same in July 2006 and 13..


    It was also very hot and dry in europe in 2003 something already we're seeing so surely with all the weeks left of summer we should tap into at some point

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

    Thanks for posting the GEM 00z - my hopes are being restored!. 

    the 00z gefs ensembles board is still showing plenty of postage stamps options with mid to high 30s nationwide..  The control run is showing 36C to 39C nationwide for four days on the trot from the 17th.. I just don't see any downgrades and we're still 10 days away so i wont take either op or control run as the gospel nailed down weather forecast just yet

    • Like 5

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, HellItsHot said:

    I love the enthusiasm on here for extremes of weather, but I don’t really get the excitement for predictions of 40 degrees in the UK. 
     

    Apart from the obvious discomfort/health  issues in a country unused to hot conditions, we all know the reasons for those possible temperatures, and what they might mean for the future, and none of them are good. 

    Do you have the same comment to cold chasers in the Winter? More people die from cold in the winter than heat in summer yet people still chase cold weather and nobody complains... People can keep cool if they want but they just ignore the health risks 

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, JayAlmeida said:

    The GFS 06z is a really bad run for us up norf. Massive temperature difference between Eastern/Central and Western areas and that's just England and Wales. Scotland fares much much worse.

    The high refuses to pass to the east keeping this weeks pattern going into FI. Supressed temperatures and strong winds in the West with a much calmer and warmer picture for the east.

    The 00z was a much better run but it now seems like an outlier as the 06z has come more in line with the ECM and GEM.

    GFSOPUK06_180_48.png

    the 6z is an outlier and doesn't get much support in ensembles, a lot of the members are hovering at the 20C hpa with some rising towards 25C....  and a lot of members going for 15C to 20C hpa for Liverpool.. 

    GEM has several crazy hot members rising to 25c in London 

     

    GFS is known to drop heat waves in FI then bring them back in a closer range. 

    london.JPG

    liverpool.JPG

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The thing between cold in Winter and heat in Summer is people can run home in the Winter to their central heating systems and keep warm. We just don't have nowhere to run to in the summer during  heat waves to keep cool because many homes and shops don't have air cons systems. And a heat wave like this verifying I'd think power outages will occur in mid afternoon causing more people to suffer heat stroke. 

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    Don't you have to add a degree or two with the GFS? So 43c possible in the SE then? What has the GFS been puffing on the last week or so!?

    45c+ for multiple days over on the continent.

    France looks like a death haven, it goes beyond August 2003 this run... Considering all the heat spikes we're starting to get in Summer (Since 2015) its only a matter of time before something serious and very extreme locks in for a number of days.. 

    • Like 3

    Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    An absolutely stunning couple of days here- both days have reached 28C and it's been almost unbroken sunshine.

    2 of the best days I can ever remember in September around these parts. 25/26C has been reached a lot in September around here in the past but it's rare to exceed 28C.

    Yes very continental like and feeling tropical in the warm pitch black darkness, already its four hours into darkness and its still boiling in the city which is very unusual for September, very rarely do we get warm pitch blackness in Summer let alone September.. But this heatwave is nothing compared to Sept 2011 which exceeded 28C for a number of days and was at the end of September and not early Sept. 

    • Like 4

    Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

    Thoroughly pleasant feeling day, no oppresiveness to the heat like you get in midsummer. Longer nights lead to more pleasantly cooler evenings too. Got me hungering to be by the sea 

    Night times this week are expected to be around 19C across much of England which won't be pleasant and will still be 23C at 10pm in some spots which was just as warm as some nights during the July heatwave, if not warmer.  

    Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 38.7°C

     

    30 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

    I just knew this settled warm spell (particularly from tomorrow onwards) would bring us weather enthusiasts hurrying straight to this thread. 

    But yes, I agree with the comments above. Hot spells at this time of the year are usually far more comfortable than hot spells during July. Summer is done and gone, but it doesn't feel like autumn yet either. Whilst I don't rate September as being a very interesting month from a meterological point of view, from a personal point of view it often delivers the most pleasant weather of the year along with May.

    I am still looking forward to those cold crisp autumn/witner mornings though. 

     

    Its only Sept 5th of course its not going to feel like Autumn just yet.. The Northern hemisphere is still warm. Mid 30Cs still possible in the UK until around 20th.   Autumn doesn't officially begin until 21st.  

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