[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Loving the models output and next week looks hot but are we anywhere near unleashing a real Satin from the South so we can enjoy a two/three day'er inside a humid sauna? Southerlies this summer seem to be absent with everything coming from East. 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

23 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm in Wilmslow and it doesn't feel chilly in the slightest- 23.5C at Rostherne at 12pm.

Here in Macclesfield is often is 2/3c cooler than neighbouring towns because we're right on the outskirts of the Pennines. Closest weather station to me is Leek thorncliffe, probably the coolest place in Cheshire 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s like I’m a oracle, or more likely a magnet for crap weather. 
 

Charts look anything like that next weekend for the following weekend and Torquay will 100% not be getting a penny of my money. 
 

 

First day of Meteorological Augtumn

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

Perfect summer morning in Cheshire under blue skies and zero cloud riight now. Feeling hot while in the sunshine but chilly and cool in the shade. Only 21c. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Usual "heatwave" drivel being churned out from GFS in the final week of July. I'll refrain from posting sunshine icons and smiley faces until I see charts like this in 5 day range. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

37 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

UKV 15z looking hot for the weekend this evening with mid to high 20's quite widely & maybe low 30's on Sunday.

Doesn't take long for the usual N/S split syndrome to rear its ugly head and keep Scotland held back in the mucky teens when only two days ago they were showing high 20s

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

The back end of the GFS run returns us to extremely poor conditions, I wouldn’t normally post charts this far out but they are the sorts of charts we’ve been seeing semi-permanently since early May so would be of zero surprise if we end up in this sort mess. 
 

You did say earlier about a terrible period from 28th july to August 1st so you might be correct

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

The prize money should go to GFS. Its been very spot on with everything ending early. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Far better looking GFS rolling out. High looks better positioned and staying warm throughout Tue and Weds. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

19 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

UKV 15z really cranking up the heat this evening for the weekend with 30°C looking like a real possibility on Sunday.

weird looking chart youd expect 30c for London not Yorkshire 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

I have a feeling this is going to be one of them occasions where the breakdown will keep being pushed back. 
Prepare for a lengthy hot spell lasting for at least two weeks as I dont think a ridge so strong and intense as the one coming is going to crumble as quickly as GFS makes out. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Seriously hot looking charts from the ECM 12z operational...Shirley this will become a hot topic soon? .. it just did!  

Manchester with uppers of 17c should squeeze into 30c at very least. 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

Really hoping this upcoming spell of uncomfortable weather for working in is short livid, i get why folk like this type of weather, its Summer, but for the likes of myself it really impacts on the day's work, the sooner it returns to more of the akin to what we've had the better. Thankfully it is not looking that extended so i'm keeping my fingers crossed. This Summer has been very good so far, by far one of the better ones so i suppose i've been spoilt!

Not looking extended? Theres more output toying with the spell lasting to the end of July than it toying with it breaking down early. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Nightimes are warmer out at sea than it is inland. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

30c days are coming!!  GFS is showing high 20s, low 30s from this weekend right out to the 28th.  Interesting that current July CET is already boosted to 17c with already a warm start to the month,, so If these charts are right we could end up well above 19c for July. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Well done England!!  You did your country proud, making the finals and making history. People will always say "football didn't come home" but in my heart they truly did bring football home. I've never witnessed such unity before in a country that is often so divided. Proud of Southgate and his lads.  

Meanwhile back to models, Summer is coming home, and latest GFS offers some big heat in around 2 weeks time just in time for start of Summer holidays. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Better looking 12z than the 6z which went downhill.  12z gets the heat back in and its more widespread. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Very nice GFS but despite all the high pressure and the UK sat right underneath high pressure I couldnt spot a single '30' on any of the red temperature maps. Nothing above 29C unless someone else can spot one but oh boy i'll take all that over a trough anyday 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Why on earth are people discussing winter and cold air? Theres been plenty of cold air up to the end of May.  Can we now enjoy some summer before worrying about Winter. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Gfs 18z rolling out and its an absolute belter of a run .  Its high pressure and home grown heat right all the way to the end. Could end up being one of those classic hot spells such as 2013 and 1983, and giving the July CET a potential boost if this one is to verify. 

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Good to see the Azores high is coming to town but what are the chances of it intensifying and then stalling over us for a week or five? Everything this year has been very slow moving . 

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

BBC weather month aheads latest update is suggesting a long period of settled weather could be likely due to tropical rainfall amomilies around Indonesia and Papua New Guinea and helping to extend the Azores through the UK before it heads of towards Russia .  

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Looks like GFS is delaying the High pressure and trying to bring yet another trough right over us resulting in yet again being stuck anchored between two high pressures for the umpteenth time this summer. Has there ever been such a repeating and persistant trough pattern like this one before? 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Is nobody going to comment on the stonker of 12z then?  Summers coming home aswell as England   

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

Well on gfs 6z the Azores has finally decided to get out of bed and get some ridging going next weekend at least its a move in the right direction