[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

13 to 16c is warm when your active , but cold when your idle. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Not the first time 850s this hot have verified. Last time we were under crazy 24C uppers was for about three days and temps at the surface were lower than the 850s themselves. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

CFS july and august 500hpa anomalies 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

GFS only 58% rolled out and looks good with the green snotty trough getting pushed back a couple of days

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

12z GFS was disturbing but then again 1st July to 15th July 2003 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

13 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Luckily, not to get too technical, I’m a green snot fan ..that bottom Gfs 12z op chart would translate to warm sunny spells and heavy, perhaps thundery showers..nae bad  ⛈  

Not bad?? Its utter PP for this point in summer time and under that it will feel very like October!  Once again, every inch of Europe swelters in the FOURTH consecutive hot summer in a row we once again get sandwiched and glued between two high pressures one east and one west.  Not bad ayy? .   Really do hate living in this country. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ECM keeps things toasty on Monday and Tuesday in the SE. By this point, folks in Scotland, the NW and Western areas may be wondering what the fuss is about as a big drop in temperatures has happened here:

The last slithers of warmth on Wednesday:


Cooler and fresher for all by Thursday:



A weak ridge of high pressure means the end of the week isn't too bad, a few showers around before it turns more mobile by Sunday:



 

Surely with my area being right in the middle of where hot air meeting the  cold air there should be some thunderstorms for here...

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Looking like a trip back to June 2012 next weekend on GFS. Love how consistent it is with wanting to put a dartboard low right over the country. Wonder how much prec will be dumped. Could there be flooding issues?? 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

GFS 18z is pants with a touch of added  for extra flavour, less heat at the weekend and a dartboard low just in time for solstice.  And to think of this base setting in around the summer solstice that sets the stone for the rest of summer, hmmmm toilet base perhaps?  

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

Usual miserable dire summer N/S split coming up. Looks pretty grotty for my area and looks like mid winter for parts of Scotland. I really dont know why people living in North are getting so excited over London having a heatwave. No much fun when your not from the SE. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Gfs 6z blows up a 992mb dartboard low to come and sit over the UK in around two weeks time. 

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Well there’s now doubting what the GFS 06z ensembles think beyond mid-month that’s a big old Plunge. Hopefully better from the midday suite.

 

Miles better

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

NAO is forecasting positive/neutral which is itself a positive for Summer lovers

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Any unsettled and cool showing will probably keep being pushed back so its not worth worrying about it when its out at Day 10 and beyond.
Imagine if we were stuck under unsettled weather and the models were showing drier and warmer for the second half of June you can just bet your house the dry and warm will keep showing at Day 10 and being pushed back.. I have a feeling thats happening now that the unsettled spells or troughs will just keep being pushed back as high pressure slowly gains more control. Model watching throughout summer of 2018  was just about as exciting as this. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

54 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not its not!!absolutely fantastic 06z gfs so far!!even stronger heights as well and more in line with the mean outputs over the last few days!!ukmo at the moment looks the outlier!!

Whatever way its outputs go, its always ending up with a trough dropping in. 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

14 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

It’s just gone midnight here but it’s still not quite completely dark yet, still quite a bright glow in the sky looking northwards. Sunset was 2 and 1/2 hours ago. That’s the benefit of being further north in the summer, you get really short nights and very long twilight times.
 

In fact, technically nowhere in the UK in June gets completely dark, it doesn’t get any darker than astronomical twilight. However this normally still looks completely dark unless it’s a very clear sky, in which case the sky will take on more of a deep blue tinge. The far north of Northern England and Scotland doesn’t get any darker than nautical twilight, so the sky never gets darker than navy blue, and in the far north of the Shetland Islands, it never gets darker than civil twilight. This means that even at 1 am, it’s still just about light enough (weather permitting) to perform outdoor activities without artificial lighting. You could quite comfortably play a round of golf at midnight up in the Shetland Islands at this time of year. I find this incredible.

I was talking about this with my brother just a few hours ago how the sky never completely darkens and when you look north you can see the sky glowing. He thought it was the moon. The sky always seems brighter to the northeast than northwest 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree with your post! as EC 240 super for Manchester! all about location

It wasnt very good in the East either at first

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d rather have semi-unsettled westerlies than that. Cool and cloudy for most of the south.

Cant believe people want unsettled westerlies than a fantastic Ecm like this, leading into a potential Scorchio for all, as wasnt this what happened in late June 2018 when it was cooler in the East for a time.  

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

ECMWF 12x looking high and mighty 

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

So what are we suggesting here then.... Falling Atmospheric Angular Momentum?? That we should enjoy the warm and dry days of June while it lasts as things are going to take a nose dive?

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

What we don't want to see is Tropical Hurricanes brewing in the Atlantic and threatening to putting a spanner into the works as i think this is the time of year they do!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

24 minutes ago, markyo said:

Nothing wrong with that at all!

I never said there was anything "wrong" it is just looking cooler than recent runs,  if your looking for warmth or a heatwave then your going to need the high right over us or more to the East. Still could feel very warm and reach low 20s in a set up mid June. 2018 had HP in similar position. 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.  

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

All 's on the GFS 18z and its looking very stonking  next week.  I think our first 30C will easily come before Solstice if these model runs come to life. 

[June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

No blister heatwaves on the horizon yet but we all know they can creep out of the blue at very short notice. And with plenty of dry and warm weather for the forseeable, i'm putting a guess that the warm and dry will extend well into the 2nd half of the month and the cool and wet will just be pushed back into July resulting in  June being 17.5C ,  15mm