Fourty Point Three Degrees
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Posts posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees
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Whats going on? Seems GFS has dropped the idea of a decent heatwave it was showing a few days ago just to continue with the same old trough and crud.
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Whats going on with the netweather GFS update? Seems to be stuck at 99% on GFS 12z
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GFS 12z is awful...........................for warmth fans and high pressure haters
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Found some met office forecasts from 2050 on you tube
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850s of 30C in spain and GFS is doing its very best to prevent any of it coming our way. Another run marked and checked for the recycle bin.
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GFS 12z has been marked for the recycle bin. Summer is well and truly over if this run verifies. Northern blocking right where we dont want it. August quickly turning out to becoming one of the poorest in the past 20 years of poor Augusts. Hopefully an outlier
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Any truth in these media reports im seeing: African plume to bring freak 50C heatwave to our part of Europe in two weeks? If this is true then the hottest days of summer are yet to come
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Outlier alert: GFS op takes the uppers over 20c in two weeks with a blowtorch heatwave in France - high 30s / low 40s there.
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Personally Ive now written off the rest of summer. Everything is pointing to a poor August and If any of the latest charts verify (99% chance likely they will) its not going to be looking good for Southern England. So disapointing that we can't even maintain a decent ridge when one builds, look how strong was the ridge was we had two weeks ago and look how quickly it got blown away. The weather gods must hate us.
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If this is a trough of low pressure sat right over us then it's a pretty darn nice trough! Sunny and hot in Manchester , 24c feeling a touch humid aswell.
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A very very poor autumnal summer month with endless Northern blocking is long overdue anyway. When was the last time we had one? 2012?? Nine years ago....Oh well ten months to go untill Summer begins, yippee cant wait.
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I'm glad the heatwave is coming to an end this weekend, i've had enough of it myself, the fan is costing too much money to run and i could do with something fresh for a few days but i really dont want a 2012 style crapfest to finish off summer, Also too many children drowning in lakes from jumping in to cool off.
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In my opinion July 2006 was far better for nationwide sun and heat than Aug 2003.
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I've seen worser ensembles. 850s ranging from 2c to 12c so nothing is nailed down yet but the overall trend is a slow downhill deterioration starting this weekend.
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Not sure if this will bring any comfort but how was the weather towards the end of July 2003 after a hot spell similar to this one in the mid July period? Didn't it all go dogs breakfast for a couple of weeks before Summer returning in the first week of August?
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48 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:
Just lifted these CFS charts from gavsweathervids. I know the CFS is a joke but it's still rather worrying beyond next week. Long range consensus is pretty
This will almost certainly verify. Punishment weather for this week.
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56 minutes ago, Frigid said:
The extreme heat warning thing is a bit OTT. Last August, many parts of the country endured days of 35c+ with nights not falling below 20. I’d classify that as extreme heat. What we’re going through now is just a regular heatwave. Days at around 27-30 with nights at 16-20. This heatwave has a similar feel to July 2018, though that was much more prolonged.
Last August was SE only and there were heat health alerts in force for the SE.
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21 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Anybody getting the jist that this low in the channel on friday saturday just keeps pushing south and east with every run and eventualy there will be hardly any rain from it at all!!
I'd rather it came here than go to already battered Germany
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6 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:
Anyone know what the GFS 06z looks like?
Hot this week then into weekend staying warm and even next week looks warm but not as hot as this week with much of England in the low 20c's.
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This is turning into quite an intense hot spell. Even during the likes of 2013 and 2018 the heat wasn't so intense here. Rarely do we see Manchester being forecast to be hotter than London or just as hot for four days on the trot starting tomorrow. Night times looking to become very warm and humid later in the week.
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43 minutes ago, Polar. said:
Hottest day on record for Northern Ireland after Ballywatticock in County Down recorded 31.2C this afternoon. Beats the 30.8C set in 1983 and 1976.
Cant be true. Record for ireland is 33.3C Plus i remember them reaching 32C in July 2006.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_extreme_temperatures?wprov=sfla1
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I think the first 30c of the year is still acheivable somewhere in the Yorkshire area. Still about one hours left of heating to go things often get very warm around the 16:00 to 18:00 period
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Ahhh yes August 1995, the daddy of all Augusts, part of the good ole days when you could actually sit in the grass and not get a wet bum.
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1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:
How on earth can a conclusion be made on possibly writing off the next 5 weeks of Summer on the back of some output that shows more unsettled conditions next Weekend! Or who would really cancel a trip on the back of the GFS operational! I really do find some comments utterly bizarre at times in this place!
Yes it looks grand for a few more days yet,and very warm even Hot at times! Things could become more unsettled next Weekend...but that's not a given! And it surely does not mean that an unsettled trend will see the rest of Summer out. If anything the 0z mean as the situation quickly improving from the South. Its not looking that bad to me.
Because its August , the new month of Autumn
Model output discussion 11th July onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
If the latest GFS was a bouquet of flowers they'd be going straight into the dustbin for smelling of . Trough sprinting right across the Atlantic and halts right over UK for four days scoring another bullseye yet again.