Fourty Point Three Degrees
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Posts posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees
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53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
I think we should enjoy it while it lasts….there are murmurings of a change into July, but that’s a long way off at the moment. June has been sensational for many.
Where is this change coming from suddenly? I thought there was already a lot pointing to a hot July with high pressure to the E and NE with lots of thundery chances. And i thought the effects of a developing el nino won't be felt until autumn.
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6 hours ago, MattStoke said:
Better build of pressure by next weekend on the GFS 12z.
Which gets better on the 18z
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I think gfs is overdoing the atlantic and we will fall somewhere half way between extreme heatwave and a typical N/S split. Saw it in the run up to the July 2021 spell, was originally showing a 3 day southeast only affair but improving with each run as the days grew closer, resulting in a five day country wide heatwave.
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24 minutes ago, cheese said:
August 2022 was a better month than July 2022 imo.
That spell was just like the July 2021 spell which was the same about 5 days long with the same intensity
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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:
The June 13th Anomaly has gone!..... several places are over 30c...
Not several Just Exeter Airport
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1 hour ago, tesaro said:
Just goes to show what a feed of Continental Air coupled with the strong June Sunshine can do for temps.
This didn’t age too well
This was about 4/5 days ago when GFS produced an oddball of a chart run for today.
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7 minutes ago, Howie said:
Why is the GFS obsessed with turning it unsettled when most of the other models are showing nothing of the sort. (I know it's unlikely and in fi)
nothing out of the ordinary. Did the same thing through out June and July 2018
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I think gfs is out on its own with its Atlantic bias and its obsession with unsettled. Anyhow its just another chart at Day 10 so nothing to be overly concerned about right now. I could be wrong but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
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And yet again BBC weather app has downgraded the daily max today from 23c to just 21c. Useless inaccurate app.
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I can't believe people are panicking for rain after the terrible spring we've had and after only a few weeks of dry weather into the opening days of Summer. Really? Are reservoirs dangerously low with the threat of a water shortage? Check first before posting such drivel. Imagine spending all spring waiting for a dreadful pesky weather pattern to change and when it does finally change, one for the better and people still aren't happy. We are hardly in 1976/1996 territory. The rain will come but come on let's first enjoy a decent summer while it's on offer.
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The weather gods have been too generous to us in recent summers giving us 35 to 40c each year. This year I think will be one of those years where the max will be less than 35c. I will guess 34.1 at Kew Gardens sometime in mid July.
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GFS 12z is just perfect for summer lovers. High pressure and warmth right out into FI.
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7 minutes ago, Howie said:
What the actual hell....
That would be some flip in fortunes if that came to life. But good job its just a computer graphic at Day 10 for now. Just watch it get pushed back.
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Saturday is an odd looking chart on Gfs with maxes struggling to get above 17C in London but its hot and humid across Central England reaching mid 20C's
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The BBC weather app is an absolute joke. Does anyone have any trust in it? Its been showing 20c everyday for the past week for my town but only on the day does it drop the daily max figure down to 18c. Its useless , i have no idea how it passes to be advertised as a reliable weather app.
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GFS 6z produces our first 30C next Monday 12th June. Next weekend could also see the hottest weekend of the year. Until then its just high and dry, with high and dry right through until end of the run.
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Just now, 38.7°C said:
Ooops but here got the right one.
Actually it does show a gap in early May with some days missing so probably did reach 25C at some point during those missing days
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13 minutes ago, B87 said:
That is 1985
Ooops but here got the right one.
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3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:
beginning of May 1995 was hot and surpassed 25c
Not according to this it shows heathrow not surpassing 22c all May
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2 hours ago, B87 said:
London has actually seen 2 days above 22c so far this year, but it is awful for our standards. We should expect to have seen around 3 days of 25c+, with numerous days above 20c by the end of May.
London averages 30 days per year above 25c, so to have not seen any at the start of summer is extremely poor.
Nothing to be concerned about, 2013 had no 25C days before June as did 1983 and 1995.
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2 hours ago, marky810 said:
Who can complain? People who have had the exact opposite for many days on end now.
I said who can complain about THIS weather, referring to the weather on the Western side of the Pennines over my head. I am fully aware those in the East are struggling with cloud and cooler temps.
3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:For starters, it’s grey and cold yet again. Nagging wind most of the day even during sunny periods, and that’s if we get the sunshine to begin with.
Its still poor for this time of year.
Also used the heating again.
I am fully aware that not everyone in the country is getting the weather I was referring to.
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Seriously who can complain about this weather. It is perfect - crisp blue skies, the temp is just right, gentle breeze no wind. You won't get a better synoptic pattern than this putting aside extremes. And May would be the perfect time of year for a pattern like this too.
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1 hour ago, plymsunshine said:
Feeling actually warm now. Just had four beautiful days in a row with a very pleasant looking spell coming up and heatwave potential?
Welcome to the world, Summer 2023
Reminds me of May 2012 which had a hot spell late in the month. We all know what happened next don't we.
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55 minutes ago, Greyhound81 said:
There is a weather forecaster called James Madden (Exacta Weather) who is predicting an African plume coming to the UK in late August, bringing temperatures as high as 35 degrees. He is also predicting 2 other heatwaves in early June and mid July with temperatures in the low 30s.
Does James Madden have a good track record of predicting the weather?
All hes done is just taken a guess. Anyone can do that and "predict" a heatwave at some point during summer and they'll most likely be correct too.
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
All these comments are bringing out the inner Karen in me that wants to scream "summer is over". Maybe I'm just wasting my energy trying to keep positive about this upcoming summer , definately a trend towards a more Atlantic driven period on todays models. A developing El Nino and too warm SST's doesn't look good either.