Fourty Point Three Degrees
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Posts posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees
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I wonder if the Decemeber cold blast last year is to blame for the cooler temps lately and lack of 20C? If sea ice had a boost then Spring would feel chilly.
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12 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
Five months of minus 40. Do me a favour.
I have Yakutsk saved on my BBC weather app. It's one of the coldest places in winter if not the coldest. It can fall to minus 55c in December.
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1 hour ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
Still waiting for Yakutsk to fire up with 30c for 14 days running. It's only a matter of time !
I'd happily take 14 days of 30c if our winters were minus 40 for five months on the trot.
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BBC weather has non stop rain continuously from Tues right through until 6th April. Looking like its a definate end to the dry year so far.
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1 minute ago, lassie23 said:
That is good to hear, don't fancy 10c and rain that is the default UK weather, and frankly boring as hell.
It is standard weather form for this time of year. Nothing boring about a few days of wet and mild in spring, At least we're not stuck in a terrible wet and miserable pattern that isn't moving.
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Barely anything here. Pavements and fields looking like icing sugar has been sprinkled. Even the Cat and Fiddle webcam shows a light dusting when normally it's worst affected around there.
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11 minutes ago, Bricriu said:
Ground temperature is too warm, perhaps. Is the snow heavy there?
Just lightly falling and it's the powdery kind
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Absolutely appalling here in Cheshire. Been snowing for 5 hours and it's still not even sticking. Anyone know what's going on?
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One thing I can guarantee this summer is the model chat thread will be full of popular phrases such as "more runs needed", "over to the ECM", "pub run is drunk", "the downgrades have begun" just to name a few lol
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I've noticed the frowngrades have begun! Exactly what did I say four days ago in the spring chat thread. If models are showing mild then it will be mild.
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It'll be another snowless cold spell just like December. Just watch those snow amounts downgrade as we get closer to range. Best to let winter take one bite back so we can focus on a decent warm up and the first 20c of the year.
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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
that's a stonker for Central parts.
Stonker it is, But what caught my eye is seeing all that blistering heat creeping around in the far right corner. Good to see the pink, red and orange crayons so early in the year
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17 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
And another dumping just for luck . What a run
We've been posting charts like this that are two weeks away since late November 2022. I'd say Just for fun rather than just for luck
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Whats the earliest date we hit a 20C? I'm going for a mid April heatwave not just 20C but 30C on the 16th.
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9 hours ago, Cymro said:
Can you back this up? There were plenty of snowy incidents between 1991 and 2009.
1996 - great snow Western UK in particular
2004 - Christmas
January 2003 bought widespread snow in Wales
February / March 2006 had heavy snow.
November 2005 had widespread early snowfall.
April 2008 also??
Was it disruptive for the UK on a whole and on a large scale? Railways canceled etc etc? Also did everywhere see snow in the dates you just mentioned. They were mainly hit and miss flurrys , with alot of areas getting just a dusting while other areas got buried. Feb 91 and Feb 09 were large scale.
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4 hours ago, Drifter said:
Yes cold was well established by then and the famous Thames streamer arrived on the 2nd, I got absolutely buried.
Looking back, 2009 and 2010 were fantastic years for snowfall in my part of the world.Feb 2009 was the UK's first major snowfall event since Feb 1991 so 18 years gap shows how hard it is to get snow in this country.
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Hello how's the weather lately? Just popped in to say how i find it so amusing how everyone was convinced last months cold spell was going to be just a mild blip and how they (the model experts) made me look silly for posting mild charts because they didn't fit in with the "background signals". Really? Look who's having the last laugh now?
I see no way out of this current miserable spell this is going to be just another write off Winter (I'll probably be right
)... Happy new year guys!!
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Jan to Apr - umbrellas out, heating off, its going to be a very mild 3 months
Feb will see the usual freezing cold week, bone dry and no snow as models will be full of snowy features that don't verify
May and June - Warmer & wetter than average, A good hot spell in late April.
July - Average month with the usual hot spell around 18th as every summer is prone to a hot spell around this time. Nothing like last year.
(Heatwaves all over Europe and the NH apart from UK)
August - Warm and humid 1st to 5th, temps 30c in SE and mid 20s elsewhere, before misery resumes
Sept - Nov - Autumnal, very warm, heatwave in early October - 31.5c at Heathrow on the 2nd
December - Overall will be a rubbish wet and warm month....."What a special winter we have coming up", "This winter is going to be full of surprises" will be the comments when the GFS 18z pub run churns out its first December 2010 outlier of the season.
2023 will fall into the Top 3 warmest years on record.
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i think its pretty much nailed on now that the next 5 days is going to be mild and wet across the SE, cold and snowy for Scotland until end of December at least....Typical N/S split in play
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Hopefully spring begins next week and new year will be another mild one.
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Not sure why people are assuming the end of the cold spell is going to be just a "mild blip". GFS 6z ensembles is in lots of scatter after next weekend so nothing is nailed down so I think it's wrong to say it's going to be a blip at this point.
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Could be a record breaking warm Christmas if this one came off. 850s reaching 12c.
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Pretty good model agreement on a pattern change by next weekend for the UK to a milder SW'ly orientated flow and staying dry but cold before that, but yes the freezing, snowless spell looks like coming to an end in around 8 days time
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Just now, DIS1970 said:
Still sweet FA of much falling here, just a box standard cold snap at the moment.
feb 2021 springs to mind
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It was only two months ago when the signal within the models was a high pressure dominated summer and now the signal is it will be wet, windy and miserable. Knowing how quickly the signal changes from one outlook to another I'd say this summer is still very much up for grabs.