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Paul Sherman

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Everything posted by Paul Sherman

  1. Paul Sherman
    Gotta be ze easthterlies in there shurelies somwherz
  2. Paul Sherman
    Ooops missed that lovely On Topic Model Related Post Cheers
  3. Paul Sherman
    What is this thread for ??? Oh yeah Model Discussion, not trolling, back stabbing, and general crud one liners, winters over it feb, oh no its march. For the love of god please try to talk about the WEATHER MODELS! <<< There is a Clue I fank you!
  4. Paul Sherman
    One thing I always try to do with these events is too pattern match against a similar synoptic chart or event from the past and see how they played out The Results Are NOT Good People A very very close match was from end of February 2001 - That event was great for the North and Scotland and left us with dribs and drabs as the very similar LP Moved away Judge for yourself from the Youtube Clip
  5. Paul Sherman
    Would not like to say at the moment, any more south corrections by the 18z and 00z models and we are back in the game, but on the most recent runs namely the 12z's it is not looking likely for anything of note bar some wintryness not settling. From the 12z's Sunday = Very Wet with temps about 4c Monday = Dismal cold and grey with Slops and 3c Tuesday = Dry with a slack east breeze and 3c If things can change the all of the above could change soo much, but seeing as the colliding airmass currently half way between us and the NE USA has not even caught upto the stationery Front across the west yet we just do not know how this LP is going to react come Sunday. Tomorrow at 9pm should have a decent handle on it though I would have thought
  6. Paul Sherman
    Ah ok that would explain it looking tasty - Lolz
  7. Paul Sherman
    Nice Fax Charts Seems the LP Gets stuck until Tuesday going from that (T96) And only starts to pull away by Wednesday with a keen ENE Flow by then. As others have said need to get this one nailed by tomorrow evening maybe and its going to be one of those T6 Affairs for the snowfall!
  8. Paul Sherman
    - We have not been that bad have we
  9. Paul Sherman
    We need that LP To form and shift South Eastwards and not stall, currently the heavier precip and colder digging temps are North of the Low so Midlands Northwards gets it, this pivots and the band fragments dying away during Monday, sleet and slops would then clear southwards and a slack east wind would set in darn south with stronger easterlies further North giving Humberside all the way upto Aberdeen the Convective Snow showers. If it forms and gets a wriggle on quick we get the heavy precip (Rain turning to Snow) and also the stronger flow as the LP Clears into France hence the convective showers for Mon / Tues
  10. Paul Sherman
    Looks bang on the money Jason - Rain from Mid Essex Southwards (Maybe Colchester the transition line) but agree with all the rest you put apart from you forgot heavy snow under Thinons Bridge (Who let him out again) Great to see all the usuals coming back just in time for the weekend, would not be the same without a bit of marginality, would be a much more boring place for sure. That was always meant to happen - Believe it or not they are having a bit of marginality early doors as well, started as Snow turning to Sleet and Heavy Rain and expected to turn back to snow by 6pm (11pm Uk Time) Not just in the Uk do we have these wintry mixes
  11. Paul Sherman
    I think it probably needs to be tbh, most Northern and Anglia members are looking like getting the white stuff and most Kentites and Sarf of the dreaded (Nuke It) M4 Looks like rain currently. Will be a strange old thread come Sunday night into Monday, could be a bit spicy!
  12. Paul Sherman
    Can I ask Ian, what has changed the Meto Stance re the warnings maps changing and also Mondays risk changing, have they new data on how the (Not yet formed LP) is going to behave ?? Thought most consensus was for it too pull away South or Southeastwards ?? This surely cannot happen if what looks like the NE Coasts from the Wash Northwards will be at risk from showers Monday etc ?
  13. Paul Sherman
    Wow Was not expecting that from the Meto with the warnings, Must have some new data on how that area of Low Pressure is going to behave. Not looking good at all atm If thats the case they are surely not expecting it too exit SE and into Europe now, stronger Easterlies further North as a result affecting Wash Northwards with convective snow showers.
  14. Paul Sherman
    Wow stunning picture there from Iceland! Dayam!
  15. Paul Sherman
    I dont know tbh as I dont do the forecasts, Nick F Would be the best to ask or he may be floating around and might be able to answer your question better Jimmy
  16. Paul Sherman
    All still to play for and still very much on our side for Monday and Tuesday next week with the possibility of some proper convection if the LP Pulls away etc. The one saving grace for us is the GooFuS really is an awful model, its precip charts are laughable, its mesoscale neartime outcomes are a joke, it only locked into the cold spell 48 hours ago etc etc. I know some love it in the Model Discussion Thread but it has performed disgracefully this winter, always bringing back its default mode, is it any wonder absolutely zero Storm Chasers use it as their preferred Model in the USA, It ranks probably 5th or 6th and If I am being honest I have not even looked at the GFS since about 2008 whilst making a Chase Forecast (Its really that bad and most US Based Chasers dont even look at it as well) In the USA 1. HRRR (RAP) 2. NAM 3. ECMWF 4. UKMO 5. CANADIAN 6. GFS Obviously its upto individual people what they think but if GooFuS was showing Snowmageddon and UKMO & ECM Were not then I would not even bat an eyelid at the next 4-5 days snow risks Paul S
  17. Paul Sherman
    Really hoping the UKMO Is on the money here for 99% of us in the SE Thread, this model clears the LP Into La France much quicker and also gives us a 24-36 hour shot at some lovely convection off the North Sea, Showers would be heavy and penetrate into most of the South East. All models starting to show a rain to snow event over the Sunday / Monday period as well. At the moment would expect the following based on the 00z Models Sunday wet for most until later in the day and overnight when precip if it is hanging around could turn to snow Monday : Snow Showers on a North Easterly Tuesday : Rinse and Repeat! Above for the UKMO Model - Subject to change of course!
  18. Paul Sherman
    Whereas Peter Cockcroft has a new identity and is now forecasting about the Upcoming Possible Record breaking Snowstorm for the NE USA On Friday http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yt_IP93B2QE - Bloody Mildy!
  19. Paul Sherman
    Dont go wearing High Heels up there - Could be a bit tricky
  20. Paul Sherman
    I am sure the 21st will be fine Matty Thursday the 7th on the other hand................. Hehehehe - Might get meself down to Heathrow and try to sell some pop up tents, might do some good business!
  21. Paul Sherman
    Yes i see a problem with the Snow Depths Roger. Remember Kent is in the SE And Kentimetres far outweigh normal snow measurements. Can anyone clarify what the conversion is from Kentimetres to Centimetres ??
  22. Paul Sherman
    And the most important thing about that second chart John is the trough has cleared through the whole country at some point earlier, so might expect a band of wintriness to be on its way next week ? One to watch for sure
  23. Paul Sherman
    And the first killer Tornado for 9 months as well, they have had a good run
  24. Paul Sherman
    Yes that would probably be the sensible thing to do, I mean its only at T168 - Nothing FI about that now
  25. Paul Sherman
    Blog Updated today and a Nice Look at what types of Storms you can expect whilst chasing with Netweather in 2013 http://blog.weatherholidays.com/2013/01/structure-heaven.html Paul S
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