MattTarrant

These are not weather warnings! These are based around contingency planning & health affects of the cold.

Why hasn't BBC News even got an article on the approaching cold?!? Anyway a seriously & dangerously cold GFS Run!

You have mis - interpreted my comment, Its a positive because its represents how vast the cold pool is!

This is rather large upgrade in terms of cold, however, synoptically its cutting a fine line! This development of the omega block will continue to cause model volatility up until late tomorrow, if not into Friday.

We were not berating him, simply concern raised at his use of an unreliable snow graphic to show his point on the 12z ECM. His overall point however of suggesting people to calm a little in regards to snow is valid, shown by a slight wobble from GFS & ECM this morning. I do believe, however, that the models are struggling somewhat with the regression signal & how it interacts with the western advection of the cold air. ECM now has heights to high which somewhat cuts of the feed, a pattern it keeps intermittently attempting. Hence, 144hr + to be viewed with even more caution than normal until ECM ensembles start to settle a little. Bluearmy suggesting the same above.

I don't necessarily agree, you can see the rough transition that it was going to take (al la ECMWF op).

The lack of comment on the UKMO is rather ironic, it looks excellent yet simply because the GFS has more data available to the public everybody starts showing signs of panic on-setting. UKMO probably the best out of all models.

No offence to you, however, if the weather translates to even close to what is being shown it will be 5 - 7 days at least.

Its on historical basis, I don't think Ian probably views snow charts (100+ Hours) anyway so he's probably thinking its showing a lot based off what that guy is saying.

4.2c & 57mm.

GFS = No, ECM = No, JMA = No, GEM = No, Icon = No, UKMO = Very Unlikely

If you're going to take a look at GFS precipitation charts, view the HD one on Meteociel.

Well that was impressive here in Swansea. Significant shaking of buildings!

One which is valid! I merely mention it's verification statistics so that it highlights how no one model can be taken as gospel, all models at some point will succeed when overs don't.

I don't think verification stats are widely available for it unfortunately, presumably if it was verifying well they would be releasing the verification stats to the public (at least making it easier to find!).

If you check the automated Met Office forecasts for individual locations it has winds veering to an Easterly by next Wednesday (Use MOGREPS Data?).

GFS is not a top 2 model (May be after its big upgrade). GEM has actually been slightly out performing it recently.

Yes . The 12z set of high resolution runs (Hirlam & Euro4 etc) tended to reduce the risk of snow unless you happen to live at very high altitude. Not to be a pessimist but I revise my predictions to any settling snow to above 400m + though with enough uncertainty for marginality to go either way of that estimate (ie don't be that surprised to wake up to some snow if you live in the prone lowland spots from Merthyr north.

Personal prediction is that anywhere roughly above 500m it will be an all snow event. Most areas with exception of the highest of ground will have rain at some point i think though if the Euro4 is correct with keeping a small 850hPa warm core (no more than an hour). I believe some wet snow/sleet is possible almost anywhere as the cold 850hPa undercut on the backedge. Snow fall predictions; No snow along southern coastal areas, at least settling. Slushy accumulations (1 - 3cm) for the valleys north with possibly 5 - 10cm on the highest ground.

The 10hPa Mean Winds have officially become easterly as of the 18z GFS.

No still being used (Hence I am living here for my first year). They have removed some of the entrance area and have almost built the first part the new housing area.

Just had a snow shower here in Swansea.

I think (according to another forum member) they are using ECM 9km resolution precipitation graphics in contrast to what used to be 1.5km resolution UKV.

In a kind mood tonight? They are terrible in resolution & contrary to the online forecasts.

I am merely talking in terms of a possible trend to keep an eye on, I merely mentioned the uppers because I couldn't be bothered to copy the image. I agree with your statement that it would cause a series of complications. Just something to observe to see whether the Extended EPS or GEFS Ensembles develop deeper cold across the European continent, instead of the cold being pooled over Northern Canada for the majority of winter.