MattTarrant

From viewing the snowfall records at Mammoth Mountain this year will likely be a record breaker. According to the 'Los Angeles Times' the first four months of the 2009/2010 season they received 307 inches of snow, that is 42 inches less than this current season. It must also be noted that the lower base depth is extremely high this season. According to Mammoth Mountain Twitter Page January was the snowiest month on record with 20 feet of snow falling....yikes! Link to 'Los Angeles Times': http://www.latimes.com/travel/la-tr-mammoth-mountain-july-fourth-20170211-story.html Link to Mammoth Mountain Historical Snow Records: http://www.onthesnow.co.uk/california/mammoth-mountain-ski-area/historical-snowfall.html?&y=2009&q=base A lovely picture of a snow bank from 31st of Jan

I kind of hope somehow the models are overdoing the effect of the phase 1 signal of the MJO but somehow even my hopeful side of me is becoming slightly dejected. Not that I will right of any further chances of cold weather but its looking like if there will be then it will likely happen early to mid March at best. Lets just list of some of the bad luck we have had this winter; . Background telecommunications looked promising for November especially, failed to deliver with blocking too far south. December followed a similar vain (Roughly). . The Northerly/North Westerly outbreak a few weeks back failed to deliver any serious goods. Mostly due to the fact the cold failed to undercut properly that troublesome feature that produced some snow for the South East. . This easterly outbreak (I was under no illusion that it was never going to be historic or particularly memorable) but even when troughing develops on Saturday it looks like a slightly milder air will push dew points just the wrong side of marginal (especially for more eastern areas). Then the retrogression signal of 2-3 days ago has seemingly been scuppered by the unwelcomed phase 1 signal. How's are luck?

Looking at the Dew points and surface temperatures I think most low lying areas will only see sleet, or wet snow in any 'heavier' bursts. Places above 150/200m metres may see 1-2 cm where above 250 I would say 3-4 cm. This is obviously only an opinion and it will come down to nowcasting and a bit of luck! Looking at current Precipitation charts I would say the Cotswold's would be a favoured place, though the current track will be open to change in the next 24 - 36 hours. (This is for Saturday) Overall from the 3 days where precipitation will likely be wintry the North York Moors will get at least 1-2 cm.

I would somewhat agree with you, the handling of the lows is poor from around 120h. For those of you who want a GFS commentary the Metcheck did one this morning.

From seeing the dew points on Saturday I think most inland areas will see some snow, though I think by the middle of the day it will be wetter in nature (Wet Snow below 100m) than through the early morning. There are other factors regarding the complexities of snow forecasting so best messaging a more experienced member.

An early look at the 18z, the more pronounced area of precipitation is more organised on this run. Coastal areas will most likely seen rain/sleet. P.S A direct link to each of those charts included in your post Nick F would be much appreciated , through PM would be preferred.

Many thanks for that Nouska, ironically I was just on that website like an hour ago. I didn't get to the bottom of the page....many thanks anyway. I guess I just want to learn the physics behind it, but then not many people understand it fully so I might have to wait somewhat longer for the chances to try and get a better grasp on it. Fascinating stuff though!

I was just wondering if anyone has the time to briefly outline why the MJO moving into phase 8 could promote greater amplification, or at least on a rough scale what impacts it has on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric profile? I see people posting these MJO charts, but would like some explanation behind it please? I have tried doing some research in to it but I think it might require the summer when away from College to do that. Any response would be much welcomed

I wouldn't say that, but as Nick says i don't quite get his tweet. I find some of Matt's tweet as overly simplistic, the undertone of that tweet is completely different to what he was pointing out in the Synoptic blog here on Netweather. He seemed quite confident of Pressure rising over Greenland area so but I respect it is just a reaction to one set of ENS so maybe we our over thinking?

Well it might stop them posting those kind of comments again, but I digress and apologise for not reporting it.

This I believe, and this in turn has a domino effect on the rest of the run. Because the block is being eroded too quick in my eyes there is a lack of ridging towards Greenland, even when the Azores high tries ridging up it is flattened and ends up forming the Euro Slug again. The Northerly showing in late FI on the 6z has been pushed east, the models have been overdoing the influence of the Atlantic for large parts of this winter and is the reason its pushed further east. (Only my personal beliefs of the issues with the progression of this run).

All in all I agree. The Atlantic is still fairly static but we are kind of in no man's land aren't we by 264h on this run.

I apologise if I seem rude, but according to some people on this forum we might as well book a summer break for next week.

I can see that, but anyone with some sense will analysing the charts in more aspects than just what it is showing at the time. We all know it will get somewhat milder next week, this isn't groundbreaking news. These posts don't help new people to the thread!

Its getting close! Lovely WAA

I was having a tour of the Met Office on Saturday and asked one of the qualified Meteorologists if this Scandinavian High is the result of the SSW. He said it is highly likely, though I wouldn't trust him as much as the operational team meteorologists though.

Haha perhaps but unlikely, whatever the 12z chart is showing, it is the trends we should be looking for. Such as slight movement south of the High/More energy going North/Low Dropping towards Iberia is less developed/WAA and such things...

The positioning of high by 162 wasn't far different to the 6z albeit perhaps 100 miles further south. Also note by 168 there is massive surge of WAA into northern Scandinavia, Mucka what could this do?

Yes but the language is what annoyed me, but anyway pointless argument. The block is again showing signs of retrogressing west.

Come on man stop over doing things, yes its sunk south but its not that bad.

The difference between the 00z and 6z is remarkable. Note less energy coming out of Greenland! First chart is 210h on 6z and second is 216 on 00z.

The chart is showing 850 hPa temperatures, which is roughly about 4,500 feet high. These link will show the conversion of hPa into height: http://meteorologytraining.tpub.com/14269/css/14269_75.htm

I know a remarkable difference in what is considered a reliable timeframe, this will probably lead to less undercutting of the 'block' which would likely not help advection of cold air west once the Scandi high has developed sufficiently.

Just thought I would post this chart because it definitely is eye candy! P.S I KNOW ITS BASED ON LOWER RESOLUTION CHARTS

To expand on your point and Nicks, I considered the GFS to be overplaying the Lows in the Atlantic which is why a greater fight is happening!